Accurate estimates of forest biomass stocks and fluxes are needed to quantify global carbon budgets and assess the response of forests to climate change. However, most forest inventories consider tree mortality as the only aboveground biomass (AGB) loss without accounting for losses via damage to living trees: branchfall, trunk breakage, and wood decay. Here, we use ~151,000 annual records of tree survival and structural completeness to compare AGB loss via damage to living trees to total AGB loss (mortality + damage) in seven tropical forests widely distributed across environmental conditions. We find that 42% (3.62 Mg ha-1 year-1 ; 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.36-5.25) of total AGB loss (8.72 Mg ha-1 year-1 ; CI 5.57-12.86) is due to damage to living trees. Total AGB loss was highly variable among forests, but these differences were mainly caused by site variability in damage-related AGB losses rather than by mortality-related AGB losses. We show that conventional forest inventories overestimate stand-level AGB stocks by 4% (1%-17% range across forests) because assume structurally complete trees, underestimate total AGB loss by 29% (6%-57% range across forests) due to overlooked damage-related AGB losses, and overestimate AGB loss via mortality by 22% (7%-80% range across forests) because of the assumption that trees are undamaged before dying. Our results indicate that forest carbon fluxes are higher than previously thought. Damage on living trees is an underappreciated component of the forest carbon cycle that is likely to become even more important as the frequency and severity of forest disturbances increase.
Climate change manifestation in the ocean, through warming, oxygen loss, increasing acidification, and changing particulate organic carbon flux (one metric of altered food supply), is projected to affect most deep-ocean ecosystems concomitantly with increasing direct human disturbance. Climate drivers will alter deep-sea biodiversity and associated ecosystem services, and may interact with disturbance from resource extraction activities or even climate geoengineering. We suggest that to ensure the effective management of increasing use of the deep ocean (e.g., for bottom fishing, oil and gas extraction, and deep-seabed mining), environmental management and developing regulations must consider climate change. Strategic planning, impact assessment and monitoring, spatial management, application of the precautionary approach, and full-cost accounting of extraction activities should embrace climate consciousness. Coupled climate and biological modeling approaches applied in the water and on the seafloor can help accomplish this goal. For example, Earth-System Model projections of climate-change parameters at the seafloor reveal heterogeneity in projected climate hazard and time of emergence (beyond natural variability) in regions targeted for deep-seabed mining. Models that combine climate-induced changes in ocean circulation with particle tracking predict altered transport of early life stages (larvae) under climate change. Habitat suitability models can help assess the consequences of altered larval dispersal, predict climate refugia, and identify vulnerable regions for multiple species under climate change. Engaging the deep observing community can support the necessary data provisioning to mainstream climate into the development of environmental management plans. To illustrate this approach, we focus on deep-seabed mining and the International Seabed Authority, whose mandates include regulation of all mineral-related activities in international waters and protecting the marine environment from the harmful effects of mining. However, achieving deep-ocean sustainability under the UN Sustainable Development Goals will require integration of climate consideration across all policy sectors.
Carbon emissions from drained peatlands converted to agriculture in South-East Asia (i.e., Peninsular Malaysia, Sumatra and Borneo) are globally significant and increasing. Here, we map the growth of South-East Asian peatland agriculture and estimate CO2 emissions due to peat drainage in relation to official land-use plans with a focus on the reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD+)-related Indonesian moratorium on granting new concession licences for industrial agriculture and logging. We find that, prior to 2010, 35% of South-East Asian peatlands had been converted to agriculture, principally by smallholder farmers (15% of original peat extent) and industrial oil palm plantations (14%). These conversions resulted in 1.46-6.43 GtCO2 of emissions between 1990 and 2010. This legacy of historical clearances on deep-peat areas will contribute 51% (4.43-11.45 GtCO2 ) of projected future peatland CO2 emissions over the period 2010-2130. In Indonesia, which hosts most of the region's peatland and where concession maps are publicly available, 70% of peatland conversion to agriculture occurred outside of known concessions for industrial plantation development, with smallholders accounting for 60% and industrial oil palm accounting for 34%. Of the remaining Indonesian peat swamp forest (PSF), 45% is not protected, and its conversion would amount to CO2 emissions equivalent to 0.7%-2.3% (5.14-14.93 Gt) of global fossil fuel and cement emissions released between 1990 and 2010. Of the peatland extent included in the moratorium, 48% was no longer forested, and of the PSF included, 40%-48% is likely to be affected by drainage impacts from agricultural areas and will emit CO2 over time. We suggest that recent legislation and policy in Indonesia could provide a means of meaningful emission reductions if focused on revised land-use planning, PSF conservation both inside and outside agricultural concessions, and the development of agricultural practices based on rehabilitating peatland hydrological function.
There are limited data for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from smallholder agricultural systems in tropical peatlands, with data for non-CO2 emissions from human-influenced tropical peatlands particularly scarce. The aim of this study was to quantify soil CH4 and N2 O fluxes from smallholder agricultural systems on tropical peatlands in Southeast Asia and assess their environmental controls. The study was carried out in four regions in Malaysia and Indonesia. CH4 and N2 O fluxes and environmental parameters were measured in cropland, oil palm plantation, tree plantation and forest. Annual CH4 emissions (in kg CH4 ha-1 year-1 ) were: 70.7 ± 29.5, 2.1 ± 1.2, 2.1 ± 0.6 and 6.2 ± 1.9 at the forest, tree plantation, oil palm and cropland land-use classes, respectively. Annual N2 O emissions (in kg N2 O ha-1 year-1 ) were: 6.5 ± 2.8, 3.2 ± 1.2, 21.9 ± 11.4 and 33.6 ± 7.3 in the same order as above, respectively. Annual CH4 emissions were strongly determined by water table depth (WTD) and increased exponentially when annual WTD was above -25 cm. In contrast, annual N2 O emissions were strongly correlated with mean total dissolved nitrogen (TDN) in soil water, following a sigmoidal relationship, up to an apparent threshold of 10 mg N L-1 beyond which TDN seemingly ceased to be limiting for N2 O production. The new emissions data for CH4 and N2 O presented here should help to develop more robust country level 'emission factors' for the quantification of national GHG inventory reporting. The impact of TDN on N2 O emissions suggests that soil nutrient status strongly impacts emissions, and therefore, policies which reduce N-fertilisation inputs might contribute to emissions mitigation from agricultural peat landscapes. However, the most important policy intervention for reducing emissions is one that reduces the conversion of peat swamp forest to agriculture on peatlands in the first place.
Mangroves play a globally significant role in carbon capture and storage, known as blue carbon ecosystems. Yet, there are fundamental biogeochemical processes of mangrove blue carbon formation that are inadequately understood, such as the mechanisms by which mangrove afforestation regulates the microbial-driven transfer of carbon from leaf to below-ground blue carbon pool. In this study, we addressed this knowledge gap by investigating: (1) the mangrove leaf characteristics using state-of-the-art FT-ICR-MS; (2) the microbial biomass and their transformation patterns of assimilated plant-carbon; and (3) the degradation potentials of plant-derived carbon in soils of an introduced (Sonneratia apetala) and a native mangrove (Kandelia obovata). We found that biogeochemical cycling took entirely different pathways for S. apetala and K. obovata. Blue carbon accumulation and the proportion of plant-carbon for native mangroves were high, with microbes (dominated by K-strategists) allocating the assimilated-carbon to starch and sucrose metabolism. Conversely, microbes with S. apetala adopted an r-strategy and increased protein- and nucleotide-biosynthetic potentials. These divergent biogeochemical pathways were related to leaf characteristics, with S. apetala leaves characterized by lower molecular-weight, C:N ratio, and lignin content than K. obovata. Moreover, anaerobic-degradation potentials for lignin were high in old-aged soils, but the overall degradation potentials of plant carbon were age-independent, explaining that S. apetala age had no significant influences on the contribution of plant-carbon to blue carbon. We propose that for introduced mangroves, newly fallen leaves release nutrient-rich organic matter that favors growth of r-strategists, which rapidly consume carbon to fuel growth, increasing the proportion of microbial-carbon to blue carbon. In contrast, lignin-rich native mangrove leaves shape K-strategist-dominated microbial communities, which grow slowly and store assimilated-carbon in cells, ultimately promoting the contribution of plant-carbon to the remarkable accumulation of blue carbon. Our study provides new insights into the molecular mechanisms of microbial community responses during reforestation in mangrove ecosystems.
Remote sensing is revolutionizing the way we study forests, and recent technological advances mean we are now able - for the first time - to identify and measure the crown dimensions of individual trees from airborne imagery. Yet to make full use of these data for quantifying forest carbon stocks and dynamics, a new generation of allometric tools which have tree height and crown size at their centre are needed. Here, we compile a global database of 108753 trees for which stem diameter, height and crown diameter have all been measured, including 2395 trees harvested to measure aboveground biomass. Using this database, we develop general allometric models for estimating both the diameter and aboveground biomass of trees from attributes which can be remotely sensed - specifically height and crown diameter. We show that tree height and crown diameter jointly quantify the aboveground biomass of individual trees and find that a single equation predicts stem diameter from these two variables across the world's forests. These new allometric models provide an intuitive way of integrating remote sensing imagery into large-scale forest monitoring programmes and will be of key importance for parameterizing the next generation of dynamic vegetation models.
Ephemeral wetlands in arid regions are often degraded or destroyed through poor land-use practice long before they are ever studied or prioritized for conservation. Climate change will likely also have implications for these ecosystems given forecast changes in rainfall patterns in many arid environments. Here, we present a conceptual diagram showing typical and modified ephemeral wetlands in agricultural landscapes and how modification impacts on species diversity and composition.
Sea turtles are vulnerable to climate change since their reproductive output is influenced by incubating temperatures, with warmer temperatures causing lower hatching success and increased feminization of embryos. Their ability to cope with projected increases in ambient temperatures will depend on their capacity to adapt to shifts in climatic regimes. Here, we assessed the extent to which phenological shifts could mitigate impacts from increases in ambient temperatures (from 1.5 to 3°C in air temperatures and from 1.4 to 2.3°C in sea surface temperatures by 2100 at our sites) on four species of sea turtles, under a "middle of the road" scenario (SSP2-4.5). Sand temperatures at sea turtle nesting sites are projected to increase from 0.58 to 4.17°C by 2100 and expected shifts in nesting of 26-43 days earlier will not be sufficient to maintain current incubation temperatures at 7 (29%) of our sites, hatching success rates at 10 (42%) of our sites, with current trends in hatchling sex ratio being able to be maintained at half of the sites. We also calculated the phenological shifts that would be required (both backward for an earlier shift in nesting and forward for a later shift) to keep up with present-day incubation temperatures, hatching success rates, and sex ratios. The required shifts backward in nesting for incubation temperatures ranged from -20 to -191 days, whereas the required shifts forward ranged from +54 to +180 days. However, for half of the sites, no matter the shift the median incubation temperature will always be warmer than the 75th percentile of current ranges. Given that phenological shifts will not be able to ameliorate predicted changes in temperature, hatching success and sex ratio at most sites, turtles may need to use other adaptive responses and/or there is the need to enhance sea turtle resilience to climate warming.
Tropical peat forests are a globally important reservoir of carbon, but little is known about CO2 exchange on an annual basis. We measured CO2 exchange between the atmosphere and tropical peat swamp forest in Sarawak, Malaysia using the eddy covariance technique over 4 years from 2011 to 2014. The CO2 fluxes varied between seasons and years. A small carbon uptake took place during the rainy season at the beginning of 2011, while a substantial net efflux of >600 g C/m2 occurred over a 2 month period in the middle of the dry season. Conversely, the peat ecosystem was a source of carbon during both the dry and rainy seasons in subsequent years and more carbon was lost during the rainy season relative to the dry season. Our results demonstrate that the forest was a net source of CO2 to the atmosphere during every year of measurement with annual efflux ranging from 183 to 632 g C m-2 year-1 , noting that annual flux values were sensitive to gap filling methodology. This is in contrast to the typical view of tropical peat forests which must have acted as net C sinks over time scales of centuries to millennia to create the peat deposits. Path analyses revealed that the gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (RE) were primarily affected by vapour pressure deficit (VPD). Results suggest that future increases in VPD could further reduce the C sink strength and result in additional net CO2 losses from this tropical peat swamp forest in the absence of plant acclimation to such changes in atmospheric dryness.