METHODS AND FINDINGS: As a key step to estimate the economic and disease burden of dengue in Southeast Asia (SEA), we projected dengue cases from 2001 through 2010 using EFs. We conducted a systematic literature review (1995-2011) and identified 11 published articles reporting original, empirically derived EFs or the necessary data, and 11 additional relevant studies. To estimate EFs for total cases in countries where no empirical studies were available, we extrapolated data based on the statistically significant inverse relationship between an index of a country's health system quality and its observed reporting rate. We compiled an average 386,000 dengue episodes reported annually to surveillance systems in the region, and projected about 2.92 million dengue episodes. We conducted a probabilistic sensitivity analysis, simultaneously varying the most important parameters in 20,000 Monte Carlo simulations, and derived 95% certainty level of 2.73-3.38 million dengue episodes. We estimated an overall EF in SEA of 7.6 (95% certainty level: 7.0-8.8) dengue cases for every case reported, with an EF range of 3.8 for Malaysia to 19.0 in East Timor.
CONCLUSION: Studies that make no adjustment for underreporting would seriously understate the burden and cost of dengue in SEA and elsewhere. As the sites of the empirical studies we identified were not randomly chosen, the exact extent of underreporting remains uncertain. Nevertheless, the results reported here, based on a systematic analysis of the available literature, show general consistency and provide a reasonable empirical basis to adjust for underreporting.
METHODS: Reporting of microscopy-diagnosed malaria cases in Sabah is mandatory. We reviewed all available Department of Health malaria notification records from 1992-2011. Notifications of P. malariae and P. knowlesi were considered as a single group due to microscopic near-identity.
RESULTS: From 1992-2011 total malaria notifications decreased dramatically, with P. falciparum peaking at 33,153 in 1994 and decreasing 55-fold to 605 in 2011, and P. vivax peaking at 15,857 in 1995 and decreasing 25-fold to 628 in 2011. Notifications of P. malariae/P. knowlesi also demonstrated a peak in the mid-1990s (614 in 1994) before decreasing to ≈ 100/year in the late 1990s/early 2000s. However, P. malariae/P. knowlesi notifications increased >10-fold between 2004 (n = 59) and 2011 (n = 703). In 1992 P. falciparum, P. vivax and P. malariae/P. knowlesi monoinfections accounted for 70%, 24% and 1% respectively of malaria notifications, compared to 30%, 31% and 35% in 2011. The increase in P. malariae/P. knowlesi notifications occurred state-wide, appearing to have begun in the southwest and progressed north-easterly.
CONCLUSIONS: A significant recent increase has occurred in P. knowlesi notifications following reduced transmission of the human Plasmodium species, and this trend threatens malaria elimination. Determination of transmission dynamics and risk factors for knowlesi malaria is required to guide measures to control this rising incidence.
METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The dispersal ability of released 'genetically sterile' male Aedes aegypti at a field site in Brazil has been estimated. Dispersal kernels embedded within a generalized linear model framework were used to analyse data collected from three large scale mark release recapture studies. The methodology has been applied to previously published dispersal data to compare the dispersal ability of 'genetically sterile' male Aedes aegypti in contrasting environments. We parameterised dispersal kernels and estimated the mean distance travelled for insects in Brazil: 52.8 m (95% CI: 49.9 m, 56.8 m) and Malaysia: 58.0 m (95% CI: 51.1 m, 71.0 m).
CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results provide specific, detailed estimates of the dispersal characteristics of released 'genetically sterile' male Aedes aegypti in the field. The comparative analysis indicates that despite differing environments and recapture rates, key features of the insects' dispersal kernels are conserved across the two studies. The results can be used to inform both risk assessments and release programmes using 'genetically sterile' male Aedes aegypti.
METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We conducted a one year longitudinal study of P. knowlesi vectors in three sites within an endemic area of Sabah, Malaysia. All mosquitoes were captured using human landing catch. Anopheles mosquitoes were dissected to determine, oocyst, sporozoites and parous rate. Anopheles balabacensis is confirmed as the primary vector of. P. knowlesi (using nested PCR) in Sabah for the first time. Vector densities were significantly higher and more seasonally variable in the village than forest or small scale farming site. However An. balabacensis survival and P. knowlesi infection rates were highest in forest and small scale farm sites. Anopheles balabacensis mostly bites humans outdoors in the early evening between 1800 to 2000 hrs.
CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This study indicates transmission is unlikely to be prevented by bednets. This combined with its high vectorial capacity poses a threat to malaria elimination programmes within the region.