Displaying publications 21 - 28 of 28 in total

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  1. Dokainish H, Teo K, Zhu J, Roy A, AlHabib KF, ElSayed A, et al.
    Lancet Glob Health, 2017 07;5(7):e665-e672.
    PMID: 28476564 DOI: 10.1016/S2214-109X(17)30196-1
    BACKGROUND: Most data on mortality and prognostic factors in patients with heart failure come from North America and Europe, with little information from other regions. Here, in the International Congestive Heart Failure (INTER-CHF) study, we aimed to measure mortality at 1 year in patients with heart failure in Africa, China, India, the Middle East, southeast Asia and South America; we also explored demographic, clinical, and socioeconomic variables associated with mortality.

    METHODS: We enrolled consecutive patients with heart failure (3695 [66%] clinic outpatients, 2105 [34%] hospital in patients) from 108 centres in six geographical regions. We recorded baseline demographic and clinical characteristics and followed up patients at 6 months and 1 year from enrolment to record symptoms, medications, and outcomes. Time to death was studied with Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for demographic and clinical variables, medications, socioeconomic variables, and region. We used the explained risk statistic to calculate the relative contribution of each level of adjustment to the risk of death.

    FINDINGS: We enrolled 5823 patients within 1 year (with 98% follow-up). Overall mortality was 16·5%: highest in Africa (34%) and India (23%), intermediate in southeast Asia (15%), and lowest in China (7%), South America (9%), and the Middle East (9%). Regional differences persisted after multivariable adjustment. Independent predictors of mortality included cardiac variables (New York Heart Association Functional Class III or IV, previous admission for heart failure, and valve disease) and non-cardiac variables (body-mass index, chronic kidney disease, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease). 46% of mortality risk was explained by multivariable modelling with these variables; however, the remainder was unexplained.

    INTERPRETATION: Marked regional differences in mortality in patients with heart failure persisted after multivariable adjustment for cardiac and non-cardiac factors. Therefore, variations in mortality between regions could be the result of health-care infrastructure, quality and access, or environmental and genetic factors. Further studies in large, global cohorts are needed.

    FUNDING: The study was supported by Novartis.

    Study site: Multination
  2. Schwalbe N, Lehtimaki S, Gutiérrez JP
    Lancet Glob Health, 2020 08;8(8):e974-e975.
    PMID: 32553131 DOI: 10.1016/S2214-109X(20)30276-X
  3. Shearer FM, Longbottom J, Browne AJ, Pigott DM, Brady OJ, Kraemer MUG, et al.
    Lancet Glob Health, 2018 03;6(3):e270-e278.
    PMID: 29398634 DOI: 10.1016/S2214-109X(18)30024-X
    BACKGROUND: Yellow fever cases are under-reported and the exact distribution of the disease is unknown. An effective vaccine is available but more information is needed about which populations within risk zones should be targeted to implement interventions. Substantial outbreaks of yellow fever in Angola, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Brazil, coupled with the global expansion of the range of its main urban vector, Aedes aegypti, suggest that yellow fever has the propensity to spread further internationally. The aim of this study was to estimate the disease's contemporary distribution and potential for spread into new areas to help inform optimal control and prevention strategies.

    METHODS: We assembled 1155 geographical records of yellow fever virus infection in people from 1970 to 2016. We used a Poisson point process boosted regression tree model that explicitly incorporated environmental and biological explanatory covariates, vaccination coverage, and spatial variability in disease reporting rates to predict the relative risk of apparent yellow fever virus infection at a 5 × 5 km resolution across all risk zones (47 countries across the Americas and Africa). We also used the fitted model to predict the receptivity of areas outside at-risk zones to the introduction or reintroduction of yellow fever transmission. By use of previously published estimates of annual national case numbers, we used the model to map subnational variation in incidence of yellow fever across at-risk countries and to estimate the number of cases averted by vaccination worldwide.

    FINDINGS: Substantial international and subnational spatial variation exists in relative risk and incidence of yellow fever as well as varied success of vaccination in reducing incidence in several high-risk regions, including Brazil, Cameroon, and Togo. Areas with the highest predicted average annual case numbers include large parts of Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and South Sudan, where vaccination coverage in 2016 was estimated to be substantially less than the recommended threshold to prevent outbreaks. Overall, we estimated that vaccination coverage levels achieved by 2016 avert between 94 336 and 118 500 cases of yellow fever annually within risk zones, on the basis of conservative and optimistic vaccination scenarios. The areas outside at-risk regions with predicted high receptivity to yellow fever transmission (eg, parts of Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand) were less extensive than the distribution of the main urban vector, A aegypti, with low receptivity to yellow fever transmission in southern China, where A aegypti is known to occur.

    INTERPRETATION: Our results provide the evidence base for targeting vaccination campaigns within risk zones, as well as emphasising their high effectiveness. Our study highlights areas where public health authorities should be most vigilant for potential spread or importation events.

    FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

  4. Knox-Brown B, Patel J, Potts J, Ahmed R, Aquart-Stewart A, Cherkaski HH, et al.
    Lancet Glob Health, 2023 Jan;11(1):e69-e82.
    PMID: 36521955 DOI: 10.1016/S2214-109X(22)00456-9
    BACKGROUND: Small airways obstruction is a common feature of obstructive lung diseases. Research is scarce on small airways obstruction, its global prevalence, and risk factors. We aimed to estimate the prevalence of small airways obstruction, examine the associated risk factors, and compare the findings for two different spirometry parameters.

    METHODS: The Burden of Obstructive Lung Disease study is a multinational cross-sectional study of 41 municipalities in 34 countries across all WHO regions. Adults aged 40 years or older who were not living in an institution were eligible to participate. To ensure a representative sample, participants were selected from a random sample of the population according to a predefined site-specific sampling strategy. We included participants' data in this study if they completed the core study questionnaire and had acceptable spirometry according to predefined quality criteria. We excluded participants with a contraindication for lung function testing. We defined small airways obstruction as either mean forced expiratory flow rate between 25% and 75% of the forced vital capacity (FEF25-75) less than the lower limit of normal or forced expiratory volume in 3 s to forced vital capacity ratio (FEV3/FVC ratio) less than the lower limit of normal. We estimated the prevalence of pre-bronchodilator (ie, before administration of 200 μg salbutamol) and post-bronchodilator (ie, after administration of 200 μg salbutamol) small airways obstruction for each site. To identify risk factors for small airways obstruction, we performed multivariable regression analyses within each site and pooled estimates using random-effects meta-analysis.

    FINDINGS: 36 618 participants were recruited between Jan 2, 2003, and Dec 26, 2016. Data were collected from participants at recruitment. Of the recruited participants, 28 604 participants had acceptable spirometry and completed the core study questionnaire. Data were available for 26 443 participants for FEV3/FVC ratio and 25 961 participants for FEF25-75. Of the 26 443 participants included, 12 490 were men and 13 953 were women. Prevalence of pre-bronchodilator small airways obstruction ranged from 5% (34 of 624 participants) in Tartu, Estonia, to 34% (189 of 555 participants) in Mysore, India, for FEF25-75, and for FEV3/FVC ratio it ranged from 5% (31 of 684) in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, to 31% (287 of 924) in Salzburg, Austria. Prevalence of post-bronchodilator small airways obstruction was universally lower. Risk factors significantly associated with FEV3/FVC ratio less than the lower limit of normal included increasing age, low BMI, active and passive smoking, low level of education, working in a dusty job for more than 10 years, previous tuberculosis, and family history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Results were similar for FEF25-75, except for increasing age, which was associated with reduced odds of small airways obstruction.

    INTERPRETATION: Despite the wide geographical variation, small airways obstruction is common and more prevalent than chronic airflow obstruction worldwide. Small airways obstruction shows the same risk factors as chronic airflow obstruction. However, further research is required to investigate whether small airways obstruction is also associated with respiratory symptoms and lung function decline.

    FUNDING: National Heart and Lung Institute and Wellcome Trust.

    TRANSLATIONS: For the Dutch, Estonian, French, Icelandic, Malay, Marathi, Norwegian, Portuguese, Swedish and Urdu translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

  5. Kong YC, Kimman M, Subramaniam S, Yip CH, Jan S, Aung S, et al.
    Lancet Glob Health, 2022 Mar;10(3):e416-e428.
    PMID: 35180423 DOI: 10.1016/S2214-109X(21)00595-7
    BACKGROUND: Complementary medicine, which refers to therapies that are not part of conventional medicine, comprising both evidence-based and non-evidence-based interventions, is increasingly used following a diagnosis of cancer. We aimed to investigate out-of-pocket spending patterns on complementary medicine and its association with adverse financial outcomes following cancer in middle-income countries in southeast Asia.

    METHODS: In this prospective cohort study, data on newly diagnosed patients with cancer were derived from the ASEAN Costs in Oncology (ACTION) cohort study, a prospective longitudinal study in 47 centres located in eight countries in southeast Asia. The ACTION study measured household expenditures on complementary medicine in the immediate year after cancer diagnosis. Participants were given cost diaries at baseline to record illness-related payments that were directly incurred and not reimbursed by insurance over the 12-month period after study recruitment. We assessed incidence of financial catastrophe (out-of-pocket cancer-related costs ≥30% of annual household income), medical impoverishment (reduction in annual household income to below poverty line following subtraction of out-of-pocket cancer-related costs), and economic hardship (inability to make necessary household payments) at 1 year.

    FINDINGS: Between March, 2012, and September, 2013, 9513 participants were recruited into the ACTION cohort study, of whom 4754 (50·0%) participants were included in this analysis. Out-of-pocket expenditures on complementary medicine were reported by 1233 households. These payments constituted 8·6% of the annual total out-of-pocket health costs in lower-middle-income countries and 42·9% in upper-middle-income countries. Expenditures on complementary medicine significantly increased risks of financial catastrophe (adjusted odds ratio 1·52 [95% CI 1·23-1·88]) and medical impoverishment (1·75 [1·36-2·24]) at 12 months in upper-middle-income countries only. However, the risks were significantly higher for economically disadvantaged households, irrespective of country income group.

    INTERPRETATION: Integration of evidence-supported complementary therapies into mainstream cancer care, along with interventions to address use of non-evidence-based complementary medicine, might help alleviate any associated adverse financial impacts.

    FUNDING: None.

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