METHODS: An Excel-based budget impact model was constructed to assess dialysis-associated costs when changing dialysis modalities between PD and ICHD. The model incorporates the current modality distribution and accounts for Malaysian government dialysis payments and erythropoiesis-stimulating agent costs. Epidemiological data including dialysis prevalence, incidence, mortality, and transplant rates from the Malaysian renal registry reports were used to estimate the dialysis patient population for the next 5 years. The baseline scenario assumed a stable distribution of PD (8%) and ICHD (92%) over 5 years. Alternative scenarios included the prevalence of PD increasing by 2.5%, 5.0%, and 7.5% or decreasing 1% yearly over 5 years. All four scenarios were accompanied with commensurate changes in ICHD.

RESULTS: Under the current best available cost information, an increase in the prevalent PD population from 8% in 2014 to 18%, 28%, or 38% in 2018 is predicted to result in 5-year cumulative savings of Ringgit Malaysia (RM) 7.98 million, RM15.96 million, and RM23.93 million, respectively, for the Malaysian government. If the prevalent PD population were to decrease from 8% in 2014 to 4.0% by 2018, the total expenditure for dialysis treatments would increase by RM3.19 million over the next 5 years.