PIP:
Fertility trends and prospects for east and southeast Asian countries including cities in China, Taiwan, the Republic of Korea, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Myanmar, and Viet Nam are described. Additional discussion focuses on family planning methods, marriage patterns, fertility prospects, theories of fertility change, and policy implications for the labor supply, labor migrants, increased female participation in the labor force (LFP), human resource development, and social policy measures. Figures provide graphic descriptions of total fertility rates (TFRS) for 12 countries/areas for selected years between 1960-90, TFR for selected Chinese cities between 1955-90, the % of currently married women 15-44 years using contraception by main method for selected years and for 10 countries, actual and projected TFR and annual growth rates between 1990-2020 for Korea and Indonesia. It is noted that the 1st southeast Asian country to experience a revolution in reproductive behavior was Japan with below replacement level fertility by 1960. This was accomplished by massive postponement in age at marriage and rapid reduction in marital fertility. Fertility was controlled primarily through abortion. Thereafter every southeast Asian country experienced fertility declines. Hong Kong, Penang, Shanghai, Singapore, and Taipei and declining fertility before the major thrust of family planning (FP). Chinese fertility declines were reflected in the 1970s to the early 1980s and paralleled the longer, later, fewer campaign and policy which set ambitious targets which were strictly enforced at all levels of administration. Korea and Taiwan's declines were a result of individual decision making to restrict fertility which was encouraged by private and government programs to provide FP information and subsidized services. The context was social and economic change. Indonesia's almost replacement level fertility was achieved dramatically through the 1970s and 1980s by institutional change in ideas about families and schooling and material welfare, changes in the structure of governance, and changes in state ideology. Thailand's decline began in the 1960s and is attributed to social change, change in cultural setting, demand, and FP efforts. Modest declines characterize Malaysia and the Philippines, which have been surpassed by Myanmar and Viet Nam. The policy implications are that there are shortages in labor supply which can be remedied with labor migration, pronatalist policy, more capital intensive industries, and preparation for a changing economy.
PIP: The population explosion has been abating since the 2nd half of the 1960s. The birth rate of the 3rd World dropped from 45/1000 during 1950-55 to 31/1000 during 1985-90. From the 1st half of the 1960s to the 1st half of the 1980s the total fertility of such countries dropped from 6.1 to 4.2 children/woman. In Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea, and Malaysia living standards improved as a result of industrialization, and fertility decreased significantly. In Sri Lanka, China, North Vietnam, and Thailand the drop of fertility is explained by cultural and religious factors. In 1982 about 78% of the population of developing countries lived in 39 states that followed an official policy aimed at reducing the population. Another 16% lived in countries supporting the concept of a desired family size. However, World Bank data showed that in the mid-1980s in 27 developing countries no state family planning (FP) programs existed. India adopted an official FP program in 1952, Pakistan followed suit in 1960, South Korea in 1961, and China in 1962. In Latin America a split policy manifested itself: in Brazil birth control was rejected, only Colombia had a FP policy. In 1986 the governments of 68 of 131 developing countries representing 3.1 billion people considered the number of children per woman too high. 31 of these countries followed concrete population control policies. On the other hand, in 1986 24 countries of Africa with 40% of the continent's population took no measures to influence population growth. In Latin America and the Caribbean 18 of 33 countries were idle, except for Mexico that had a massive state FP program. These programs also improve maternal and child health with birth spacing of at least 2 years, and the prevention of pregnancies of too young women or those over 40. The evaluation of rapidly spreading FP programs in the 1970s was carried out by the World Fertility Survey in 41 countries. The impact of FP programs was more substantial than socioeconomic factors. Contraceptive use increased in Mexico from 13% in 1973 to 41% in 1978 among women of fertile age. According to 1984 and 1988 UN data modern methods of contraception were used by 70% of women in China, 60-65% in Southeast Asia, Costa Rica, and Puerto Rico. In contrast, less than 5% used them in most countries of Africa, 15-20% in West Asia, 25-30% in South Asia, and 40% in Latin America. The pill was the most popular method. From the early 1980s in South and East Asia 1/5 of women got sterilized after attaining the desired family size. Less than 10% of women used IUDs in developing countries. FP programs have benefited from higher education levels and economic incentives and sanctions and exemplified in Singapore, China, South Korea, Thailand, and Taiwan.
PIP:
In the Philippines the number of children per woman is envisioned to be 2 by the year 2000 to reach simple replacement level. The crude birth rate had dropped from 43.6% in 1960 to 32.3% during 1980-85 corresponding to 4.2 children/woman. However, the corresponding rates for Thailand and Malaysia were 28% and 32.1%, respectively. The total fertility rate (TFR) was still a high 4.7% in 1988. In 1980 TFR was 3 in Manila, but 3/4 of the provinces still had TFR of 5-6.8 in 1985. Yet the World Fertility Survey of 1970 indicated that the total married fertility rate had decreased from 9.6 in 1970 to 9.1 in 1977. Married women had an average of 4.5 children in 1968 and still 4 children in 1983. Only 1/2 of married women aged 15-45 used contraception. In 1983, only 26.2% of all fertile married women used effective contraception. 63% of Moslim women, 70% of Catholics and Protestants, and 83% of members of the Church of Christ advocate modern contraceptives. From 1967 the National Population Outreach Program of the state sent out family planning advisers to unserviced areas. In 1983 only 37% of married women knew about such a service within their locality, and in 1988 a World Bank investigation showed that 67% could not afford contraceptives. The education, employment, income, urbanization of the household as well as medical care of women and children strongly influenced reproduction. The lifting of living standards and improvement of the condition of women is a central tenet of Philippine family planning policy. A multiple regression analysis of the World Fertility Survey proved that professional women tended to have smaller family size, however, most women worked out of economic necessity not because of avocation. The higher the urban family income, the lower marital fertility; but the reverse is true in rural areas where traditionally large families have had more income, and children have provided future material security. In 1983 1/3 of women with children over 18 received regular financial remittances from them. Thus, appropriate family planning program evaluation has to be concerned with the relationships of fertility and rural areas, the economic development of the community, and the physical access to a family planning clinic.
Fertility differentials between rural and urban populations are investigated using World Fertility Survey data for Bangladesh, Fiji, Indonesia, Malaysia, Nepal, Pakistan, the Philippines, the Republic of Korea, Sri Lanka, and Thailand. "The fertility measure used in this analysis is the number of children ever born to a woman. An attempt is made first to establish the differential in fertility levels between urban and rural areas after necessary control of the demographic factors..., and then the possible explanation of the differential is sought in terms of socio-economic variables such as education of the respondent, and occupation, work pattern, work status and place of work of the respondent as well as that of the husband." Data concerning the fertility differentials and the associated explanatory variables are presented in tables and charts. "The results tend to show that the countries of Asia are undergoing similar patterns of fertility transition as was experienced in the advanced countries. Perhaps one can graduate the countries in the transition scale as follows: Bangladesh, Indonesia, Nepal, Pakistan and Malaysia are in the initial stage; Fiji, the Philippines, the Republic of Korea, Sri Lanka and Thailand are in the middle stage of transition."
United Nations. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific ESCAP. Population Division, United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division. International Population Information Network POPIN
PIP: A model of the determinants of child quality and of the value of a woman's time is developed and tested using data from the Malaysian Family Life Survey of 1976-1977. Child quality is measured by educational attainment; factors influencing the value of the mother's time include size and age composition of household, family income, education, and hours worked. The results indicate that size and age composition of household affect a woman's asking wage. However, more data are needed before the effects of family structure on schooling can be measured with confidence.
"The past 20 years have seen extensive elaboration, refinement, and application of the original Brass method for estimating infant and child mortality from child survivorship data. This experience has confirmed the overall usefulness of the methods beyond question, but it has also shown that...estimates must be analyzed in relation to other relevant information before useful conclusions about the level and trend of mortality can be drawn.... This article aims to illustrate the importance of data analysis through a series of examples, including data for the Eastern Malaysian state of Sarawak, Mexico, Thailand, and Indonesia. Specific maneuvers include plotting completed parity distributions and 'time-plotting' mean numbers of children ever born from successive censuses. A substantive conclusion of general interest is that data for older women are not so widely defective as generally supposed."
Throughout India and China, South Korea and Taiwan, Pakistan and Malaysia, the same sentiment recurs: "The birth of girl is an occasion for gloom, not cheer, for bitterness, not pleasure." In all these countries "patriarchal traditions and social stigmas" make females the unwanted sex, reports Asiaweek. The tragic result: prenatal gender tests are flourishing. And for many women, if the test indicates a female, they abort. In India, sex tests and abortions are legal, cheap and readily available. Some 1500 sex-tested girls are aborted annually in Bombay alone. In China, abortions are legal, but gender tests strictly forbidden. Says one official: We cannot afford to let people know what sex the fetus is because all the girls would be aborted." Yet the numbers of baby girls in China have been reduced--and illicit gender tests and female infanticide are considered partly to blame. In South Korea, gender tests have been banned and most abortions are illegal, but "clandestine tests" are available, and according to the government some 30,000 pregnancies are terminated annually. The number of aborted females is not known, but birth ratios have shown "an alarming swing towards males" in recent years. Can laws and education change the social attitudes against girls in these Asian countries? Indian activist Vibhuti Patel, a lobbyist for stronger controls over sex-testing, hopes so. She urges a "continuous campaign" to fight the "centuries-old values" that encourages gender tests. Says Patel: Nothing less than the very survival of women is at stake."
PIP:
This paper presents data on contraceptive prevalence from 26 national sample surveys conducted in the Asian and Pacific region during the 1966-84 period. The basic data presented are: contraceptive prevalence rates, cross-classified by age where possible; the percentage of couples using each contraceptive method, also cross-classified by age where possible. To facilitate comparison between countries and across time, the data are presented in a standardized form, both numerically and graphically. Contraceptive prevalence rates range from 1-85% (the highest and lowest ever reported). In the Asian and Pacific region as a whole, the prevalence rate was around 40%, which was about the same level as in the Latin American region. In Africa the prevalence rate was around 12%, and in developed countries around 70%. In the late 1960s, prevalence rates in the Asian and Pacific region were less than 20%. By the early 1980s, contraception had spread throughout all parts of society so that the rates in many countries were over 50%, and in some over 60%. Most of the countries with high prevalence rates were in East and Southeast Asia, and most of those with low prevalence in South Asia. Displayed graphically with the age of wife (from 15-49 years) on the x axis, contraceptive prevalence rates appear as an inverted U, low at both ends of the age range and high in the middle. Curves skewed to the left generally have stronger effects on fertility than those skewed to the right. This is due to the fact that most births occur among younger couples and contraception used by younger couples prevents more births than contraception used by older couples. The curves of countries relying primarily on sterilization are generally skewed to the right. The data show a wide variation in the mix of contraceptives used in each country. The use of various contraceptives by age is similar throughout the region. Young couples generally use oral contraceptives (OCs), those in the middle of the reproductive ages the IUD, and those near the end of the childbearing ages sterilization. Rhythm and withdrawal methods appear to be preferred both by couples in the youngest and oldest age groups. Contraceptive needs change as couples progress through the life cycle. Consequently, family planning programs must work to provide a broad mix of contraceptives. The tables show that Thailand and the Republic of Korea, 2 countries which are thought to have excellent family planning programs, have provided well-balanced mixes of contraceptives. Other countries in the region have depended on only 1 or 2 methods.
"A tentative approximation of the expectation of life at 60-65 years, for populations with defective demographic statistics, is explored and expounded on the basis of a recent Horiuchi and [Coale] paper." The method is applied to data for El Salvador, Mexico, Puerto Rico, and Peninsular Malaysia, and it is shown that the method can be used on actual data, although it requires some drastic rounding off. (summary in ENG, FRE)
The present study represents the first report of the effect of hydrogen peroxide (H(2)O(2)) on the growth, development and quality of the wax apple fruit, a widely cultivated fruit tree in South East Asia. The wax apple trees were spray treated with 0, 5, 20 and 50 mM H(2)O(2) under field conditions. Photosynthetic rates, stomatal conductance, transpiration, chlorophyll and dry matter content of the leaves and total soluble solids and total sugar content of the fruits of wax apple (Syzygium samarangense, var. jambu madu) were significantly increased after treatment with 5 mM H(2)O(2). The application of 20 mM H(2)O(2) significantly reduced bud drop and enhanced fruit growth, resulting in larger fruit size, increased fruit set, fruit number, fruit biomass and yield compared to the control. In addition, the endogenous level of H(2)O(2) in wax apple leaves increased significantly with H(2)O(2) treatments. With regard to fruit quality, 20 mM H(2)O(2) treatment increased the K(+), anthocyanin and carotene contents of the fruits by 65%, 67%, and 41%, respectively. In addition, higher flavonoid, phenol and soluble protein content, sucrose phosphate synthase (SPS), phenylalanine ammonia lyase (PAL) and antioxidant activities were recorded in the treated fruits. There was a positive correlation between peel colour (hue) and TSS, between net photosynthesis and SPS activity and between phenol and flavonoid content with antioxidant activity in H(2)O(2)-treated fruits. It is concluded that spraying with 5 and 20 mM H(2)O(2) once a week produced better fruit growth, maximising the yield and quality of wax apple fruits under field conditions.