Rapid sea-level rise between the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the mid-Holocene transformed the Southeast Asian coastal landscape, but the impact on human demography remains unclear. Here, we create a paleogeographic map, focusing on sea-level changes during the period spanning the LGM to the present-day and infer the human population history in Southeast and South Asia using 763 high-coverage whole-genome sequencing datasets from 59 ethnic groups. We show that sea-level rise, in particular meltwater pulses 1 A (MWP1A, ~14,500-14,000 years ago) and 1B (MWP1B, ~11,500-11,000 years ago), reduced land area by over 50% since the LGM, resulting in segregation of local human populations. Following periods of rapid sea-level rises, population pressure drove the migration of Malaysian Negritos into South Asia. Integrated paleogeographic and population genomic analysis demonstrates the earliest documented instance of forced human migration driven by sea-level rise.
Habitat degradation and hunting have caused the widespread loss of larger vertebrate species (defaunation) from tropical biodiversity hotspots. However, these defaunation drivers impact vertebrate biodiversity in different ways and, therefore, require different conservation interventions. We conducted landscape-scale camera-trap surveys across six study sites in Southeast Asia to assess how moderate degradation and intensive, indiscriminate hunting differentially impact tropical terrestrial mammals and birds. We found that functional extinction rates were higher in hunted compared to degraded sites. Species found in both sites had lower occupancies in the hunted sites. Canopy closure was the main predictor of occurrence in the degraded sites, while village density primarily influenced occurrence in the hunted sites. Our findings suggest that intensive, indiscriminate hunting may be a more immediate threat than moderate habitat degradation for tropical faunal communities, and that conservation stakeholders should focus as much on overhunting as on habitat conservation to address the defaunation crisis.
Matched MeSH terms: Population Dynamics/trends; Population Dynamics/statistics & numerical data
Agriculturally altered vegetation, especially oil-palm plantations, is rapidly increasing in Southeast Asia. Low species diversity is associated with this commodity, but data on anuran diversity in oil-palm plantations are lacking. We investigated how anuran biological diversity differs between forest and oil-palm plantation, and whether observed differences in biological diversity of these areas is linked to specific environmental factors. We hypothesized that biological diversity is lower in plantations and that plantations support a larger proportion of disturbance-tolerant species than forest. We compared species richness, abundance, and community composition between plantation and forest areas and between site types within plantation and forest (forest stream vs. plantation stream, forest riparian vs. plantation riparian, forest terrestrial vs. plantation terrestrial). Not all measures of biological diversity differed between oil-palm plantations and secondary forest sites. Anuran community composition, however, differed greatly between forest and plantation, and communities of anurans in plantations contained species that prosper in disturbed areas. Although plantations supported large numbers of breeding anurans, we concluded the community consisted of common species that were of little conservation concern (commonly found species include Fejervarya limnocharis, Microhyla heymonsi, and Hylarana erythrea). We believe that with a number of management interventions, oil-palm plantations can provide habitat for species that dwell in secondary forests.
There are few empirical data, particularly collected simultaneously from multiple sites, on extinctions resulting from human-driven land-use change. Southeast Asia has the highest deforestation rate in the world, but the resulting losses of biological diversity remain poorly documented. Between November 2006 and March 2008, we conducted bird surveys on six landbridge islands in Malaysia and Indonesia. These islands were surveyed previously for birds in the early 1900 s, when they were extensively forested. Our bird inventories of the islands were nearly complete, as indicated by sampling saturation curves and nonparametric true richness estimators. From zero (Pulau Malawali and Pulau Mantanani) to 15 (Pulau Bintan) diurnal resident landbird species were apparently extirpated since the early 1900 s. Adding comparable but published extinction data from Singapore to our regression analyses, we found there were proportionally fewer forest bird extinctions in areas with greater remaining forest cover. Nevertheless, the statistical evidence to support this relationship was weak, owing to our unavoidably small sample size. Bird species that are restricted to the Indomalayan region, lay few eggs, are heavier, and occupy a narrower habitat breadth, were most vulnerable to extinction on Pulau Bintan. This was the only island where sufficient data existed to analyze the correlates of extinction. Forest preservation and restoration are needed on these islands to conserve the remaining forest avifauna. Our study of landbridge islands indicates that deforestation may increasingly threaten Southeast Asian biodiversity.
As a landscape becomes increasingly fragmented through habitat loss, the individual patches become smaller and more isolated and thus less likely to sustain a local population. Metapopulation theory is appropriate for analyzing fragmented landscapes because it combines empirical landscape features with species-specific information to produce direct information on population extinction risks. This approach contrasts with descriptions of habitat fragments, which provide only indirect information on risk. Combining a spatially explicit metapopulation model with empirical data on endemic species' ranges and maps of habitat cover, we calculated the metapopulation capacity-a measure of a landscape's ability to sustain a metapopulation. Mangroves provide an ideal model landscape because they are of conservation concern and their patch boundaries are easily delineated. For 2000-20015, we calculated global metapopulation capacity for 99 metapopulations of 32 different bird species endemic to mangroves. Northern Australia and Southeast Asia had the highest richness of mangrove endemic birds. The Caribbean, Pacific coast of Central America, Madagascar, Borneo, and isolated patches in Southeast Asia in Myanmar and Malaysia had the highest metapopulation losses. Regions with the highest loss of habitat area were not necessarily those with the highest loss of metapopulation capacity. Often, it was not a matter of how much, but how the habitat was lost. Our method can be used by managers to evaluate and prioritize a landscape for metapopulation persistence.
Ancient DNA has significantly improved our understanding of the evolution and population history of extinct megafauna. However, few studies have used complete ancient genomes to examine species responses to climate change prior to extinction. The woolly rhinoceros (Coelodonta antiquitatis) was a cold-adapted megaherbivore widely distributed across northern Eurasia during the Late Pleistocene and became extinct approximately 14 thousand years before present (ka BP). While humans and climate change have been proposed as potential causes of extinction [1-3], knowledge is limited on how the woolly rhinoceros was impacted by human arrival and climatic fluctuations [2]. Here, we use one complete nuclear genome and 14 mitogenomes to investigate the demographic history of woolly rhinoceros leading up to its extinction. Unlike other northern megafauna, the effective population size of woolly rhinoceros likely increased at 29.7 ka BP and subsequently remained stable until close to the species' extinction. Analysis of the nuclear genome from a ∼18.5-ka-old specimen did not indicate any increased inbreeding or reduced genetic diversity, suggesting that the population size remained steady for more than 13 ka following the arrival of humans [4]. The population contraction leading to extinction of the woolly rhinoceros may have thus been sudden and mostly driven by rapid warming in the Bølling-Allerød interstadial. Furthermore, we identify woolly rhinoceros-specific adaptations to arctic climate, similar to those of the woolly mammoth. This study highlights how species respond differently to climatic fluctuations and further illustrates the potential of palaeogenomics to study the evolutionary history of extinct species.
Unsustainable exploitation of natural resources is increasingly affecting the highly biodiverse tropics [1, 2]. Although rapid developments in remote sensing technology have permitted more precise estimates of land-cover change over large spatial scales [3-5], our knowledge about the effects of these changes on wildlife is much more sparse [6, 7]. Here we use field survey data, predictive density distribution modeling, and remote sensing to investigate the impact of resource use and land-use changes on the density distribution of Bornean orangutans (Pongo pygmaeus). Our models indicate that between 1999 and 2015, half of the orangutan population was affected by logging, deforestation, or industrialized plantations. Although land clearance caused the most dramatic rates of decline, it accounted for only a small proportion of the total loss. A much larger number of orangutans were lost in selectively logged and primary forests, where rates of decline were less precipitous, but where far more orangutans are found. This suggests that further drivers, independent of land-use change, contribute to orangutan loss. This finding is consistent with studies reporting hunting as a major cause in orangutan decline [8-10]. Our predictions of orangutan abundance loss across Borneo suggest that the population decreased by more than 100,000 individuals, corroborating recent estimates of decline [11]. Practical solutions to prevent future orangutan decline can only be realized by addressing its complex causes in a holistic manner across political and societal sectors, such as in land-use planning, resource exploitation, infrastructure development, and education, and by increasing long-term sustainability [12]. VIDEO ABSTRACT.
PIP: The population explosion has been abating since the 2nd half of the 1960s. The birth rate of the 3rd World dropped from 45/1000 during 1950-55 to 31/1000 during 1985-90. From the 1st half of the 1960s to the 1st half of the 1980s the total fertility of such countries dropped from 6.1 to 4.2 children/woman. In Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea, and Malaysia living standards improved as a result of industrialization, and fertility decreased significantly. In Sri Lanka, China, North Vietnam, and Thailand the drop of fertility is explained by cultural and religious factors. In 1982 about 78% of the population of developing countries lived in 39 states that followed an official policy aimed at reducing the population. Another 16% lived in countries supporting the concept of a desired family size. However, World Bank data showed that in the mid-1980s in 27 developing countries no state family planning (FP) programs existed. India adopted an official FP program in 1952, Pakistan followed suit in 1960, South Korea in 1961, and China in 1962. In Latin America a split policy manifested itself: in Brazil birth control was rejected, only Colombia had a FP policy. In 1986 the governments of 68 of 131 developing countries representing 3.1 billion people considered the number of children per woman too high. 31 of these countries followed concrete population control policies. On the other hand, in 1986 24 countries of Africa with 40% of the continent's population took no measures to influence population growth. In Latin America and the Caribbean 18 of 33 countries were idle, except for Mexico that had a massive state FP program. These programs also improve maternal and child health with birth spacing of at least 2 years, and the prevention of pregnancies of too young women or those over 40. The evaluation of rapidly spreading FP programs in the 1970s was carried out by the World Fertility Survey in 41 countries. The impact of FP programs was more substantial than socioeconomic factors. Contraceptive use increased in Mexico from 13% in 1973 to 41% in 1978 among women of fertile age. According to 1984 and 1988 UN data modern methods of contraception were used by 70% of women in China, 60-65% in Southeast Asia, Costa Rica, and Puerto Rico. In contrast, less than 5% used them in most countries of Africa, 15-20% in West Asia, 25-30% in South Asia, and 40% in Latin America. The pill was the most popular method. From the early 1980s in South and East Asia 1/5 of women got sterilized after attaining the desired family size. Less than 10% of women used IUDs in developing countries. FP programs have benefited from higher education levels and economic incentives and sanctions and exemplified in Singapore, China, South Korea, Thailand, and Taiwan.
PIP:
In the Philippines the number of children per woman is envisioned to be 2 by the year 2000 to reach simple replacement level. The crude birth rate had dropped from 43.6% in 1960 to 32.3% during 1980-85 corresponding to 4.2 children/woman. However, the corresponding rates for Thailand and Malaysia were 28% and 32.1%, respectively. The total fertility rate (TFR) was still a high 4.7% in 1988. In 1980 TFR was 3 in Manila, but 3/4 of the provinces still had TFR of 5-6.8 in 1985. Yet the World Fertility Survey of 1970 indicated that the total married fertility rate had decreased from 9.6 in 1970 to 9.1 in 1977. Married women had an average of 4.5 children in 1968 and still 4 children in 1983. Only 1/2 of married women aged 15-45 used contraception. In 1983, only 26.2% of all fertile married women used effective contraception. 63% of Moslim women, 70% of Catholics and Protestants, and 83% of members of the Church of Christ advocate modern contraceptives. From 1967 the National Population Outreach Program of the state sent out family planning advisers to unserviced areas. In 1983 only 37% of married women knew about such a service within their locality, and in 1988 a World Bank investigation showed that 67% could not afford contraceptives. The education, employment, income, urbanization of the household as well as medical care of women and children strongly influenced reproduction. The lifting of living standards and improvement of the condition of women is a central tenet of Philippine family planning policy. A multiple regression analysis of the World Fertility Survey proved that professional women tended to have smaller family size, however, most women worked out of economic necessity not because of avocation. The higher the urban family income, the lower marital fertility; but the reverse is true in rural areas where traditionally large families have had more income, and children have provided future material security. In 1983 1/3 of women with children over 18 received regular financial remittances from them. Thus, appropriate family planning program evaluation has to be concerned with the relationships of fertility and rural areas, the economic development of the community, and the physical access to a family planning clinic.
With data from the Malaysian Family Life Survey, I use a continuous-state hazards model to study the impact of migration on the dynamics of individuals' careers. I distinguish between the effects of family migration and solo migration by gender. The results show that migration alters the career trajectory primarily by accelerating the process of occupational mobility rather than by increasing the level of occupational attainment. Further, the effect of migration on careers varies by type of migration, especially for women. Male-female differences in the outcome of family migration, however, are visible only in transitions into and out of employment.
Matched MeSH terms: Population Dynamics/statistics & numerical data*
State planning plays a central role in Malaysia's social and economic development. The government's rural development policies are designed to promote agricultural incomes and help counterbalance ethnic inequalities. The Federal Land Development Authority (FELDA) implements one of the internationally most successful land development and resettlement programs. In this article, we quantify the impact of FELDA settlements on local out-migration rates, linking macro and micro approaches and using data from the Malaysian Family Life Survey, national censuses, and other sources. A model of instantaneous migration rates specifies an individual's migration rate as a function of individual-level sociodemographic characteristics, the level of urbanization of the origin and destination, and the extent of rural development at the district of current residence. Our results show that in the late 1960s and early 1970s, the existence of rural development centers in a district reduced the levels of out-migration to pre-1965 levels.
Matched MeSH terms: Population Dynamics/statistics & numerical data*
"The commitment to population programs is now widespread," says Rafael Salas, Executive Director of the UNFPA, in its report "State of World Population." About 80% of the total population of the developing world live in countries which consider their fertility levels too high and would like them reduced. An important impetus came from the World Conference of 1974. The Plan of Action from the conference projected population growth rates in developing countries of 2.0% by 1985. Today it looks as though this projection will be realized. While in 1969, for example, only 26 developing countries had programs aimed at lowering or maintaining fertility levels, by 1980 there were 59. The International Population Conference, recently announced by the UN for 1984, will, it is hoped, help sustain that momentum. Cuba is the country which has shown the greatest decline in birth rate so far. The birth rate fell 47% between 1965-1970 and 1975-1980. Next came China with a 34% decline in the same period. After these came a group of countries--each with populations of over 10 million--with declines of between 15 and 25%: Chile, Colombia, India, Indonesia, the Republic of Korea, Malaysia and Thailand. Though birth rates have been dropping significantly the decline in mortality rates over recent years has been less than was hoped for. The 1974 conference set 74 years as the target for the world's average expectation of life, to be reached by the year 2000. But the UN now predicts that the developing countries will have only reached 63 or 64 years by then. High infant and child mortality rates, particularly in Africa, are among the major causes. The report identifies the status of women as an important determinant of family size. Evidence from the UNFPA-sponsored World Fertility Survey shows that in general the fertility of women decreases as their income increases. It also indicates that women who have been educated and who work outside the home are likely to have smaller families. Access to contraceptives is, of course, a major influence on fertility decline. According to UNFPA some of the Latin American countries have the highest contraceptive use among developing countries. The countries of Asia come next and contraceptives are least used in sub-Saharan Africa where birth rates of 45/1000 are still common. The money for population programs, says the report, has come largely from developing countries themselves. A survey of 15 countries showed them to have contributed 67% out of their own budgets--the rest having come from external aid. And in programs aided by UNFPA the local input has been even higher. During 1979-1981 the developing countries themselves budgeted $4.6 for each dollar budgeted by UNFPA. The report also highlights some of the emerging problems for the next 2 decades--and which will be high on the agenda of the 1984 conference. These include "uncontrolled urban growth" in developing countries as well as an important change in overall population age structure as more and more old people survive. Aging populations are of particular concern to the developed countries but, as the report points out, even countries like China--which has achieved a steep drop in fertility and mortality--will face the problems of an aging population by the year 2000.