METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Monthly data on serologically confirmed JE cases were acquired from Sibu Hospital in Sarawak from 1997 to 2006. JE vaccine coverage (non-vaccine years vs. vaccine years) and meteorological predictor variables, including temperature, rainfall and the Southern Oscillation index (SOI) were tested for their association with JE cases using Poisson time series analysis and controlling for seasonality and long-term trend. Over the 10-years surveillance period, 133 confirmed JE cases were identified. There was an estimated 61% reduction in JE risk after the introduction of vaccination, when no account is taken of the effects of climate. This reduction is only approximately 45% when the effects of inter-annual variability in climate are controlled for in the model. The Poisson model indicated that rainfall (lag 1-month), minimum temperature (lag 6-months) and SOI (lag 6-months) were positively associated with JE cases.
CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This study provides the first improved estimate of JE reduction through vaccination by taking account of climate inter-annual variability. Our analysis confirms that vaccination has substantially reduced JE risk in Sarawak but this benefit may be overestimated if climate effects are ignored.
METHODS: A retrospective study of 246 culture-confirmed melioidosis cases in Queen Elizabeth Hospital, Sabah, Malaysia was performed between 2016 and 2018. The epidemiological data and clinical and laboratory findings were extracted and analysed.
RESULTS: The annual incidence of culture-confirmed melioidosis cases was estimated to be 4.97 per 100,000 people. The mean age of the patients was 50±15 years. Males and members of the Kadazan-Dusun ethnic group accounted for the majority of the melioidosis cases. The odds ratio analysis indicated that bacteraemic melioidosis in this region was significantly associated with fever (76%), and patients having at least one underlying illness (43%), including diabetes mellitus (32%). Sixty-eight patients (28%) succumbed to melioidosis. Contrary to what is known regarding factors that promote bacteraemic melioidosis, neither patients with fever nor patients with at least one comorbid disease, including diabetes mellitus, were significantly associated with death from melioidosis. There was no statistically significant difference between patients without comorbidities (24, 27%) and those with at least one comorbid disease (26, 25%), including diabetes mellitus (18, 23%). The odds ratios indicate that melioidosis mortality in this region is related to patients showing respiratory organ-associated symptoms (29%), bacteraemia (30%), and septic shock (47%). Burkholderia pseudomallei isolates in this study were highly susceptible to ceftazidime (100%), imipenem (100%), and trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole (98%).
CONCLUSIONS: Information obtained from this study can be used by clinicians to recognise individuals with the highest risk of acquiring melioidosis, estimate an accurate prognosis, and provide effective treatment for melioidosis patients to reduce death from melioidosis.
METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A total of 439 records of P. knowlesi infections in humans, macaque reservoir and vector species were collated. To predict spatial variation in disease risk, a model was fitted using records from countries where the infection data coverage is high. Predictions were then made throughout Southeast Asia, including regions where infection data are sparse. The resulting map predicts areas of high risk for P. knowlesi infection in a number of countries that are forecast to be malaria-free by 2025 (Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand and Vietnam) as well as countries projected to be eliminating malaria (Myanmar, Laos, Indonesia and the Philippines).
CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We have produced the first map of P. knowlesi malaria risk, at a fine-scale resolution, to identify priority areas for surveillance based on regions with sparse data and high estimated risk. Our map provides an initial evidence base to better understand the spatial distribution of this disease and its potential wider contribution to malaria incidence. Considering malaria elimination goals, areas for prioritised surveillance are identified.
METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Available evidence was evaluated using a step-wise process that included systematic literature reviews, policymaker and stakeholder interviews, a study to assess dengue contingency planning and outbreak management in 10 countries, and a retrospective logistic regression analysis to identify alarm signals for an outbreak warning system using datasets from five dengue endemic countries. Best practices for managing a dengue outbreak are provided for key elements of a dengue contingency plan including timely contingency planning, the importance of a detailed, context-specific dengue contingency plan that clearly distinguishes between routine and outbreak interventions, surveillance systems for outbreak preparedness, outbreak definitions, alert algorithms, managerial capacity, vector control capacity, and clinical management of large caseloads. Additionally, a computer-assisted early warning system, which enables countries to identify and respond to context-specific variables that predict forthcoming dengue outbreaks, has been developed.
CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Most countries do not have comprehensive, detailed contingency plans for dengue outbreaks. Countries tend to rely on intensified vector control as their outbreak response, with minimal focus on integrated management of clinical care, epidemiological, laboratory and vector surveillance, and risk communication. The Technical Handbook for Surveillance, Dengue Outbreak Prediction/ Detection and Outbreak Response seeks to provide countries with evidence-based best practices to justify the declaration of an outbreak and the mobilization of the resources required to implement an effective dengue contingency plan.
METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We assessed oral susceptibility of Malaysian Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus by real-time PCR to an Australian RRV strain SW2089. Replication kinetics in midgut, head and saliva were determined at 3 and 10 days post-infection (dpi). With a 3 log10 PFU/ml blood meal, infection rate was higher in Ae. albopictus (60%) than Ae. aegypti (15%; p<0.05). Despite similar infection rates at 5 and 7 log10 PFU/ml blood meals, Ae. albopictus had significantly higher viral loads and required a significantly lower median oral infectious dose (2.7 log10 PFU/ml) than Ae. aegypti (4.2 log10 PFU/ml). Ae. albopictus showed higher vector competence, with higher viral loads in heads and saliva, and higher transmission rate (RRV present in saliva) of 100% at 10 dpi, than Ae. aegypti (41%). Ae. aegypti demonstrated greater barriers at either midgut escape or salivary gland infection, and salivary gland escape. We then assessed seropositivity against RRV among 240 Kuala Lumpur inpatients using plaque reduction neutralization, and found a low rate of 0.8%.
CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Both Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus are susceptible to RRV, but Ae. albopictus displays greater vector competence. Extensive travel links with Australia, abundant Aedes vectors, and low population immunity places Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia at risk of an imported RRV outbreak. Surveillance and increased diagnostic awareness and capacity are imperative to prevent establishment of new arboviruses in Malaysia.
METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We conducted longitudinal studies to investigate the entomological parameters of the simian malaria vectors and to examine the genetic diversity and evolutionary pattern of their simian Plasmodium. All the captured Anopheles mosquitoes were dissected to examine for the presence of oocysts, sporozoites and to determine the parous rate. Our study revealed that the Anopheles Leucosphyrus Group mosquitoes are highly potential competent vectors, as evidenced by their high rate of parity, survival and sporozoite infections in these mosquitoes. Thus, these mosquitoes represent a risk of human infection with zoonotic simian malaria in this region. Haplotype analysis on P. cynomolgi and P. inui, found in high prevalence in the Anopheles mosquitoes from this study, had shown close relationship between simian Plasmodium from the Anopheles mosquitoes with its vertebrate hosts. This directly signifies the ongoing transmission between the vector, macaques, and humans. Furthermore, population genetic analysis showed significant negative values which suggest that both Plasmodium species are undergoing population expansion.
CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: With constant microevolutionary processes, there are potential for both P. inui and P. cynomolgi to emerge and spread as a major public health problem, following the similar trend of P. knowlesi. Therefore, concerted vector studies in other parts of Southeast Asia are warranted to better comprehend the transmission dynamics of this zoonotic simian malaria which eventually would aid in the implementation of effective control measures in a rapidly changing environment.
METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using in silico tools, we designed and expressed four novel P. knowlesi protein products to address the distinct lack of suitable serosurveillance tools: PkSERA3 antigens 1 and 2, PkSSP2/TRAP and PkTSERA2 antigen 1. Antibody prevalence to these antigens was determined by ELISA for three time-points post-treatment from a hospital-based clinical treatment trial in Sabah, East Malaysia (n = 97 individuals; 241 total samples for all time points). Higher responses were observed for the PkSERA3 antigen 2 (67%, 65/97) across all time-points (day 0: 36.9% 34/92; day 7: 63.8% 46/72; day 28: 58.4% 45/77) with significant differences between the clinical cases and controls (n = 55, mean plus 3 SD) (day 0 p<0.0001; day 7 p<0.0001; day 28 p<0.0001). Using boosted regression trees, we developed models to classify P. knowlesi exposure (cross-validated AUC 88.9%; IQR 86.1-91.3%) and identified the most predictive antibody responses.
CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The PkSERA3 antigen 2 had the highest relative variable importance in all models. Further validation of these antigens is underway to determine the specificity of these tools in the context of multi-species infections at the population level.
METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We conducted comprehensive surveys in three areas where P. knowlesi transmission is reported: Limbuak, Pulau Banggi and Matunggung, Kudat, Sabah, Malaysia and Bacungan, Palawan, the Philippines. Infection prevalence was low with parasites detected by PCR in only 0.2% (4/2503) of the population. P. knowlesi PkSERA3 ag1 antibody responses were detected in 7.1% (95% CI: 6.2-8.2%) of the population, compared with 16.1% (14.6-17.7%) and 12.6% (11.2-14.1%) for P. falciparum and P. vivax. Sero-prevalence was low in individuals <10 years old for P. falciparum and P. vivax consistent with decreased transmission of non-zoonotic malaria species. Results indicated marked heterogeneity in transmission intensity between sites and P. knowlesi exposure was associated with agricultural work (OR 1.63; 95% CI 1.07-2.48) and higher levels of forest cover (OR 2.40; 95% CI 1.29-4.46) and clearing (OR 2.14; 95% CI 1.35-3.40) around houses. Spatial patterns of P. knowlesi exposure differed from exposure to non-zoonotic malaria and P. knowlesi exposed individuals were younger on average than individuals exposed to non-zoonotic malaria.
CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This is the first study to describe serological exposure to P. knowlesi and associated risk factors within endemic communities. Results indicate community-level patterns of infection and exposure differ markedly from demographics of reported cases, with higher levels of exposure among women and children. Further work is needed to understand these variations in risk across a wider population and spatial scale.