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  1. Fulltext Potential impact of dengue vaccination: Insights from two large-scale phase III trials with a tetravalent dengue vaccine
    Coudeville L, Baurin N, L'Azou M, Guy B
    Vaccine, 2016 12 07;34(50):6426-6435.
    PMID: 27601343 DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2016.08.050
    BACKGROUND: A tetravalent dengue vaccine demonstrated its protective efficacy in two phase III efficacy studies. Results from these studies were used to derive vaccination impact in the five Asian (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam) and the five Latin American countries (Brazil, Colombia, Honduras, Mexico and Puerto Rico) participating in these trials.

    METHODS: Vaccination impact was investigated with an age-structured, host-vector, serotype-specific compartmental model. Parameters related to vaccine efficacy and levels of dengue transmission were estimated using data collected during the phase III efficacy studies. Several vaccination programs, including routine vaccination at different ages with and without large catch-up campaigns, were investigated.

    RESULTS: All vaccination programs explored translated into significant reductions in dengue cases at the population level over the first 10years following vaccine introduction and beyond. The most efficient age for vaccination varied according to transmission intensity and 9years was close to the most efficient age across all settings. The combination of routine vaccination and large catch-up campaigns was found to enable a rapid reduction of dengue burden after vaccine introduction.

    CONCLUSION: Our analysis suggests that dengue vaccination can significantly reduce the public health impact of dengue in countries where the disease is endemic.

  2. Fulltext Cost-effectiveness of dengue vaccination in ten endemic countries
    Zeng W, Halasa-Rappel YA, Baurin N, Coudeville L, Shepard DS
    Vaccine, 2018 01 08;36(3):413-420.
    PMID: 29229427 DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2017.11.064
    Following publication of results from two phase-3 clinical trials in 10 countries or territories, endemic countries began licensing the first dengue vaccine in 2015. Using a published mathematical model, we evaluated the cost-effectiveness of dengue vaccination in populations similar to those at the trial sites in those same Latin American and Asian countries. Our main scenarios (30-year horizon, 80% coverage) entailed 3-dose routine vaccinations costing US$20/dose beginning at age 9, potentially supplemented by catch-up programs of 4- or 8-year cohorts. We obtained illness costs per case, dengue mortality, vaccine wastage, and vaccine administration costs from the literature. We estimated that routine vaccination would reduce yearly direct and indirect illness cost per capita by 22% (from US$10.51 to US$8.17) in the Latin American countries and by 23% (from US$5.78 to US$4.44) in the Asian countries. Using a health system perspective, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) averaged US$4,216/disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted in the five Latin American countries (range: US$666/DALY in Puerto Rico to US$5,865/DALY in Mexico). In the five Asian countries, the ICER averaged US$3,751/DALY (range: US$1,935/DALY in Malaysia to US$5,101/DALY in the Philippines). From a health system perspective, the vaccine proved to be highly cost effective (ICER under one times the per capita GDP) in seven countries and cost effective (ICER 1-3 times the per capita GDP) in the remaining three countries. From a societal perspective, routine vaccination proved cost-saving in three countries. Including catch-up campaigns gave similar ICERs. Thus, this vaccine could have a favorable economic value in sites similar to those in the trials.
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