Displaying publications 1 - 20 of 24 in total

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  1. Brodie JF
    Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, 2017 11 07;114(45):11998-12002.
    PMID: 29078339 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1710172114
    Large, fruit-eating vertebrates have been lost from many of the world's ecosystems. The ecological consequences of this defaunation can be severe, but the evolutionary consequences are nearly unknown because it remains unclear whether frugivores exert strong selection on fruit traits. I assessed the macroevolution of fruit traits in response to variation in the diversity and size of seed-dispersing vertebrates. Across the Indo-Malay Archipelago, many of the same plant lineages have been exposed to very different assemblages of seed-dispersing vertebrates. Phylogenetic analysis of >400 plant species in 41 genera and five families revealed that average fruit size tracks the taxonomic and functional diversity of frugivorous birds and mammals. Fruit size was 40.2-46.5% smaller in the Moluccas and Sulawesi (respectively), with relatively depauperate assemblages of mostly small-bodied animals, than in the Sunda Region (Borneo, Sumatra, and Peninsular Malaysia), with a highly diverse suite of large and small animals. Fruit color, however, was unrelated to vertebrate diversity or to the representation of birds versus mammals in the frugivore assemblage. Overhunting of large animals, nearly ubiquitous in tropical forests, could strongly alter selection pressures on plants, resulting in widespread, although trait-specific, morphologic changes.
  2. Deith MCM, Brodie JF
    Proc Biol Sci, 2020 03 11;287(1922):20192677.
    PMID: 32156211 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2019.2677
    Unsustainable hunting is emptying forests of large animals around the world, but current understanding of how human foraging spreads across landscapes has been stymied by data deficiencies and cryptic hunter behaviour. Unlike other global threats to biodiversity like deforestation, climate change and overfishing, maps of wild meat hunters' movements-often based on forest accessibility-typically cover small scales and are rarely validated with real-world observations. Using camera trapping data from rainforests across Malaysian Borneo, we show that while hunter movements are strongly correlated with the accessibility of different parts of the landscape, accessibility measures are most informative when they integrate fine-scale habitat features like topography and land cover. Measures of accessibility naive to fine-scale habitat complexity, like distance to the nearest road or settlement, generate poor approximations of hunters' movements. In comparison, accessibility as measured by high-resolution movement models based on circuit theory provides vastly better reflections of real-world foraging movements. Our results highlight that simple models incorporating fine-scale landscape heterogeneity can be powerful tools for understanding and predicting widespread threats to biodiversity.
  3. Brodie JF, Mannion PD
    Trends Ecol Evol, 2023 Jan;38(1):15-23.
    PMID: 36089412 DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2022.07.013
    The numerous explanations for why Earth's biodiversity is concentrated at low latitudes fail to explain variation in the strength and even direction of the gradient through deep time. Consequently, we do not know if today's gradient is representative of what might be expected on other planets or is merely an idiosyncrasy of Earth's history. We propose a hierarchy of factors driving the latitudinal distribution of diversity: (i) over geologically long time spans, diversity is largely predicted by climate; (ii) when climatic gradients are shallow, diversity tracks habitat area; and (iii) historical contingencies linked to niche conservatism have geologically short-term, transient influence at most. Thus, latitudinal diversity gradients, although variable in strength and direction, are largely predictable on our planet and possibly others.
  4. Williams PJ, Brodie JF
    Conserv Biol, 2023 Apr;37(2):e14014.
    PMID: 36178021 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.14014
    The loss of large animals due to overhunting and habitat loss potentially affects tropical tree populations and carbon cycling. Trees reliant on large-bodied seed dispersers are thought to be particularly negatively affected by defaunation. But besides seed dispersal, defaunation can also increase or decrease seed predation. It remains unclear how these different defaunation effects on early life stages ultimately affect tree population dynamics. We reviewed the literature on how tropical animal loss affects different plant life stages, and we conducted a meta-analysis of how defaunation affects seed predation. We used this information to parameterize models that altered matrix projection models from a suite of tree species to simulate defaunation-caused changes in seed dispersal and predation. We assessed how applying these defaunation effects affected population growth rates. On average, population-level effects of defaunation were negligible, suggesting that defaunation may not cause the massive reductions in forest carbon storage that have been predicted. In contrast to previous hypotheses, we did not detect an effect of seed size on changes in seed predation rates. The change in seed predation did not differ significantly between exclosure experiments and observational studies, although the results of observational studies were far more variable. Although defaunation surely affects certain tree taxa, species that benefit or are harmed by it and net changes in forest carbon storage cannot currently be predicted based on available data. Further research on how factors such as seed predation vary across tree species and defaunation scenarios is necessary for understanding cascading changes in species composition and diversity.
  5. Granados A, Bernard H, Brodie JF
    Proc Biol Sci, 2018 02 28;285(1873).
    PMID: 29491176 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2017.2882
    Animals can have both positive (e.g. via seed dispersal) and negative (e.g. via herbivory) impacts on plants. The net effects of these interactions remain difficult to predict and may be affected by overhunting and habitat disturbance, two widespread threats to tropical forests. Recent studies have documented their separate effects on plant recruitment but our understanding of how defaunation and logging interact to influence tropical tree communities is limited. From 2013 to 2016, we followed the fate of marked tree seedlings (n = 1489) from 81 genera in and outside experimental plots. Our plots differentially excluded small, medium and large-bodied mammal herbivores in logged and unlogged forest in Malaysian Borneo. We assessed the effects of experimental defaunation and logging on taxonomic diversity and plant trait (wood density, specific leaf area, fruit size) composition of seedling communities. Although seedling mortality was highest in the presence of all mammal herbivores (44%), defaunation alone did not alter taxonomic diversity nor plant trait composition. However, herbivores (across all body sizes) significantly reduced mean fruit size across the seedling community over time (95% confidence interval (CI): -0.09 to -0.01), particularly in logged forest (95% CI: -0.12 to -0.003). Our findings suggest that impacts of mammal herbivores on plant communities may be greater in forests with a history of disturbance and could subsequently affect plant functional traits and ecological processes associated with forest regeneration.
  6. Brodie JF, Mohd-Azlan J, Schnell JK
    Ecology, 2016 Jul;97(7):1658-1667.
    PMID: 27859156 DOI: 10.1890/15-1613.1
    Elucidating how dispersal and landscape connectivity influence metacommunity stability will shed light on natural processes structuring ecosystems and help prioritize conservation actions in an increasingly fragmented world. Much of the theoretical and mathematical development of the metacommunity concept has been based on simplified experimental systems or simulated data. We still have limited understanding of how variation in the habitat matrix and species-specific differences in dispersal ability contribute to metacommunity dynamics in heterogeneous landscapes. We model a metacommunity of rainforest mammals in Borneo, a tropical biodiversity hotspot, where protected areas are increasingly isolated by ongoing habitat disturbance and loss. We employ a combination of hierarchical models of local abundance, circuit-theory-based dispersal analysis, and metapopulation models. Our goal was to understand which landscape links were the most important to metapopulation persistence and metacommunity stability. Links were particularly important if they were short and connected two large patches. This was partly because only the very shortest links could be traversed by poorly dispersing species, including small herbivores such as chevrotains (Tragulus spp.) and porcupines. Links that join large patches into a "super-patch" may also promote island-mainland rather than Levins-type metapopulation dynamics for good dispersers, particularly large carnivores such as clouded leopards (Neofelis diardi) and sun bears (Helarctos malayanus), reducing metapopulation extinction risk and thereby enhancing metacommunity stability. Link importance to metacommunity stability was highly correlated between heterogeneous and homogeneous landscapes. But link importance to metapopulation capacity varied strongly across species, and the correlation between heterogeneous and homogeneous landscape matrix scenarios was low for poorly dispersing taxa. This suggests that the environmental conditions in the area between habitat patches, the landscape matrix, is important for assessing certain individual species but less so for understanding the stability of the entire metacommunity.
  7. Granados A, Bernard H, Brodie JF
    J Anim Ecol, 2019 06;88(6):892-902.
    PMID: 30895613 DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.12983
    Periods of extreme food abundance, such as irregular masting events, can dramatically affect animal populations and communities, but the extent to which anthropogenic disturbances alter animal responses to mast events is not clear. In South-East Asia, dipterocarp trees reproduce in mast fruiting events every 2-10 years in some of the largest masting events on the planet. These trees, however, are targeted for selective logging, reducing the intensity of fruit production and potentially affecting multiple trophic levels. Moreover, animal responses to resource pulse events have largely been studied in systems where the major mast consumers have been extirpated. We sought to evaluate the influence of human-induced habitat disturbance on animal responses to masting in a system where key mast consumers remain extant. We used motion-triggered camera traps to quantify terrestrial mammal and bird occurrences in Sabah, Malaysian Borneo, relative to variation in fruit biomass from 69 plant families during a major (2014) and minor (2015) masting event and a non-mast year (2013), in both logged and unlogged forests. Bearded pigs (Sus barbatus) showed the clearest responses to masting and occurrence rates were highest in unlogged forest in the year following the major mast, suggesting that the pulse in fruit availability increased immigration or reproduction. We also detected local-scale spatial tracking of dipterocarp fruits in bearded pigs in unlogged forest, while this was equivocal in other species. In contrast, pigs and other vertebrate taxa in our study showed limited response to spatial or temporal variation in fruit availability in logged forest. Our findings suggest that vertebrates, namely bearded pigs, may respond to masting via movement and increased reproduction, but that these responses may be attenuated by habitat disturbance.
  8. Williams PJ, Zipkin EF, Brodie JF
    Nat Commun, 2024 Mar 28;15(1):2457.
    PMID: 38548741 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-46757-z
    Biogeographic history can lead to variation in biodiversity across regions, but it remains unclear how the degree of biogeographic isolation among communities may lead to differences in biodiversity. Biogeographic analyses generally treat regions as discrete units, but species assemblages differ in how much biogeographic history they share, just as species differ in how much evolutionary history they share. Here, we use a continuous measure of biogeographic distance, phylobetadiversity, to analyze the influence of biogeographic isolation on the taxonomic and functional diversity of global mammal and bird assemblages. On average, biodiversity is better predicted by environment than by isolation, especially for birds. However, mammals in deeply isolated regions are strongly influenced by isolation; mammal assemblages in Australia and Madagascar, for example, are much less diverse than predicted by environment alone and contain unique combinations of functional traits compared to other regions. Neotropical bat assemblages are far more functionally diverse than Paleotropical assemblages, reflecting the different trajectories of bat communities that have developed in isolation over tens of millions of years. Our results elucidate how long-lasting biogeographic barriers can lead to divergent diversity patterns, against the backdrop of environmental determinism that predominantly structures diversity across most of the world.
  9. Yue S, Brodie JF, Zipkin EF, Bernard H
    Ecol Appl, 2015 Dec;25(8):2285-92.
    PMID: 26910955
    Agricultural expansion is the largest threat to global biodiversity. In particular, the rapid spread of tree plantations is a primary driver of deforestation in hyperdiverse tropical regions. Plantations tend to support considerably lower biodiversity than native forest, but it remains unclear whether plantation traits affect their ability to sustain native wildlife populations, particularly for threatened taxa. If animal diversity varies across plantations with different characteristics, these traits could be manipulated to make plantations more "wildlife friendly." The degree to which plantations create edge effects that degrade habitat quality in adjacent forest also remains unclear, limiting our ability to predict wildlife persistence in mixed-use landscapes. We used systematic camera trapping to investigate mammal occurrence and diversity in oil palm plantations and adjacent forest in Sabah, Malaysian Borneo. Mammals within plantations were largely constrained to locations near native forest; the occurrence of most species and overall species richness declined abruptly with decreasing forest proximity from an estimated 14 species at the forest ecotone to -1 species 2 km into the plantation. Neither tree height nor canopy cover within plantations strongly affected mammal diversity or occurrence, suggesting that manipulating tree spacing or planting cycles might not make plantations more wildlife friendly. Plantations did not appear to generate strong edge effects; mammal richness within forest remained high and consistent up to the plantation ecotone. Our results suggest that land-sparing strategies, as opposed to efforts to make plantations more wildlife-friendly, are required for regional wildlife conservation in biodiverse tropical ecosystems.
  10. Granados A, Brodie JF, Bernard H, O'Brien MJ
    Ecol Appl, 2017 10;27(7):2092-2101.
    PMID: 28660670 DOI: 10.1002/eap.1592
    Vertebrate granivores destroy plant seeds, but whether animal-induced seed mortality alters plant recruitment varies with habitat context, seed traits, and among granivore species. An incomplete understanding of seed predation makes it difficult to predict how widespread extirpations of vertebrate granivores in tropical forests might affect tree communities, especially in the face of habitat disturbance. Many tropical forests are simultaneously affected by animal loss as well as habitat disturbance, but the consequences of each for forest regeneration are often studied separately or additively, and usually on a single plant demographic stage. The combined impacts of these threats could affect plant recruitment in ways that are not apparent when studied in isolation. We used wire cages to exclude large (elephants), medium, (sambar deer, bearded pigs, muntjac deer), and small (porcupines, chevrotains) ground-dwelling mammalian granivores and herbivores in logged and unlogged forests in Malaysian Borneo. We assessed the interaction between habitat disturbance (selective logging) and experimental defaunation on seed survival, germination, and seedling establishment in five dominant dipterocarp tree species spanning a 21-fold gradient in seed size. Granivore-induced seed mortality was consistently higher in logged forest. Germination of unpredated seeds was reduced in logged forest and in the absence of small to large-bodied mammals. Experimental defaunation increased germination and reduced seed removal but had little effect on seed survival. Seedling recruitment however, was more likely where logging and animal loss occurred together. The interacting effects of logging and hunting could therefore, actually increase seedling establishment, suggesting that the loss of mammals in disturbed forest could have important consequences for forest regeneration and composition.
  11. Williams PJ, Ong RC, Brodie JF, Luskin MS
    Nat Commun, 2021 Mar 12;12(1):1650.
    PMID: 33712621 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-21978-8
    Overhunting reduces important plant-animal interactions such as vertebrate seed dispersal and seed predation, thereby altering plant regeneration and even above-ground biomass. It remains unclear, however, if non-hunted species can compensate for lost vertebrates in defaunated ecosystems. We use a nested exclusion experiment to isolate the effects of different seed enemies in a Bornean rainforest. In four of five tree species, vertebrates kill many seeds (13-66%). Nonetheless, when large mammals are excluded, seed mortality from insects and fungi fully compensates for the lost vertebrate predation, such that defaunation has no effect on seedling establishment. The switch from seed predation by generalist vertebrates to specialist insects and fungi in defaunated systems may alter Janzen-Connell effects and density-dependence in plants. Previous work using simulation models to explore how lost seed dispersal will affect tree species composition and carbon storage may require reevaluation in the context of functional redundancy within complex species interactions networks.
  12. Brodie JF, Paxton M, Nagulendran K, Balamurugan G, Clements GR, Reynolds G, et al.
    Conserv Biol, 2016 10;30(5):950-61.
    PMID: 26648510 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.12667
    We examined the links between the science and policy of habitat corridors to better understand how corridors can be implemented effectively. As a case study, we focused on a suite of landscape-scale connectivity plans in tropical and subtropical Asia (Malaysia, Singapore, and Bhutan). The process of corridor designation may be more efficient if the scientific determination of optimal corridor locations and arrangement is synchronized in time with political buy-in and establishment of policies to create corridors. Land tenure and the intactness of existing habitat in the region are also important to consider because optimal connectivity strategies may be very different if there are few, versus many, political jurisdictions (including commercial and traditional land tenures) and intact versus degraded habitat between patches. Novel financing mechanisms for corridors include bed taxes, payments for ecosystem services, and strategic forest certifications. Gaps in knowledge of effective corridor design include an understanding of how corridors, particularly those managed by local communities, can be protected from degradation and unsustainable hunting. There is a critical need for quantitative, data-driven models that can be used to prioritize potential corridors or multicorridor networks based on their relative contributions to long-term metacommunity persistence.
  13. Brodie JF, Giordano AJ, Zipkin EF, Bernard H, Mohd-Azlan J, Ambu L
    Conserv Biol, 2015 Feb;29(1):110-21.
    PMID: 25196079 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.12389
    Humans influence tropical rainforest animals directly via exploitation and indirectly via habitat disturbance. Bushmeat hunting and logging occur extensively in tropical forests and have large effects on particular species. But how they alter animal diversity across landscape scales and whether their impacts are correlated across species remain less known. We used spatially widespread measurements of mammal occurrence across Malaysian Borneo and recently developed multispecies hierarchical models to assess the species richness of medium- to large-bodied terrestrial mammals while accounting for imperfect detection of all species. Hunting was associated with 31% lower species richness. Moreover, hunting remained high even where richness was very low, highlighting that hunting pressure persisted even in chronically overhunted areas. Newly logged sites had 11% lower species richness than unlogged sites, but sites logged >10 years previously had richness levels similar to those in old-growth forest. Hunting was a more serious long-term threat than logging for 91% of primate and ungulate species. Hunting and logging impacts across species were not correlated across taxa. Negative impacts of hunting were the greatest for common mammalian species, but commonness versus rarity was not related to species-specific impacts of logging. Direct human impacts appeared highly persistent and lead to defaunation of certain areas. These impacts were particularly severe for species of ecological importance as seed dispersers and herbivores. Indirect impacts were also strong but appeared to attenuate more rapidly than previously thought. The lack of correlation between direct and indirect impacts across species highlights that multifaceted conservation strategies may be needed for mammal conservation in tropical rainforests, Earth's most biodiverse ecosystems.
  14. Brodie JF, Giordano AJ, Dickson B, Hebblewhite M, Bernard H, Mohd-Azlan J, et al.
    Conserv Biol, 2015 Feb;29(1):122-32.
    PMID: 25065425 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.12337
    Habitat corridors are important tools for maintaining connectivity in increasingly fragmented landscapes, but generally they have been considered in single-species approaches. Corridors intended to facilitate the movement of multiple species could increase persistence of entire communities, but at the likely cost of being less efficient for any given species than a corridor intended specifically for that species. There have been few tests of the trade-offs between single- and multispecies corridor approaches. We assessed single-species and multispecies habitat corridors for 5 threatened mammal species in tropical forests of Borneo. We generated maps of the cost of movement across the landscape for each species based on the species' local abundance as estimated through hierarchical modeling of camera-trap data with biophysical and anthropogenic covariates. Elevation influenced local abundance of banded civets (Hemigalus derbyanus) and sun bears (Helarctos malayanus). Increased road density was associated with lower local abundance of Sunda clouded leopards (Neofelis diardi) and higher local abundance of sambar deer (Rusa unicolor). Pig-tailed macaque (Macaca nemestrina) local abundance was lower in recently logged areas. An all-species-combined connectivity scenario with least-cost paths and 1 km buffers generated total movement costs that were 27% and 23% higher for banded civets and clouded leopards, respectively, than the connectivity scenarios for those species individually. A carnivore multispecies connectivity scenario, however, increased movement cost by 2% for banded civets and clouded leopards. Likewise, an herbivore multispecies scenario provided more effective connectivity than the all-species-combined scenario for sambar and macaques. We suggest that multispecies habitat connectivity plans be tailored to groups of ecologically similar, disturbance-sensitive species to maximize their effectiveness.
  15. Brodie JF, Strimas-Mackey M, Mohd-Azlan J, Granados A, Bernard H, Giordano AJ, et al.
    Proc Biol Sci, 2017 01 25;284(1847).
    PMID: 28100818 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2016.2335
    The responses of lowland tropical communities to climate change will critically influence global biodiversity but remain poorly understood. If species in these systems are unable to tolerate warming, the communities-currently the most diverse on Earth-may become depauperate ('biotic attrition'). In response to temperature changes, animals can adjust their distribution in space or their activity in time, but these two components of the niche are seldom considered together. We assessed the spatio-temporal niches of rainforest mammal species in Borneo across gradients in elevation and temperature. Most species are not predicted to experience changes in spatio-temporal niche availability, even under pessimistic warming scenarios. Responses to temperature are not predictable by phylogeny but do appear to be trait-based, being much more variable in smaller-bodied taxa. General circulation models and weather station data suggest unprecedentedly high midday temperatures later in the century; predicted responses to this warming among small-bodied species range from 9% losses to 6% gains in spatio-temporal niche availability, while larger species have close to 0% predicted change. Body mass may therefore be a key ecological trait influencing the identity of climate change winners and losers. Mammal species composition will probably change in some areas as temperatures rise, but full-scale biotic attrition this century appears unlikely.
  16. Chiew LY, Hackett TD, Brodie JF, Teoh SW, Burslem DFRP, Reynolds G, et al.
    J Anim Ecol, 2021 Dec 25.
    PMID: 34954816 DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.13655
    Conservation outcomes could be greatly enhanced if strategies addressing anthropogenic land-use change considered the impacts of these changes on entire communities as well as on individual species. Examining how species interactions change across gradients of habitat disturbance allows us to predict the cascading consequences of species extinctions and the response of ecological networks to environmental change. We conducted the first detailed study of changes in a commensalist network of mammals and dung beetles across an environmental disturbance gradient, from primary tropical forest to plantations, which varied in above-ground carbon density (ACD) and mammal communities. Mammal diversity changed only slightly across the gradient, remaining high even in oil palm plantations and fragmented forest. Dung beetle species richness, however, declined in response to lower ACD and was particularly low in plantations and the most disturbed forest sites. Three of the five network metrics (nestedness, network specialization and functionality) were significantly affected by changes in dung beetle species richness and ACD, but mammal diversity was not an important predictor of network structure. Overall, the interaction networks remained structurally and functionally similar across the gradient, only becoming simplified (i.e. with fewer dung beetle species and fewer interactions) in the most disturbed sites. We suggest that the high diversity of mammals, even in disturbed forests, combined with the generalist feeding patterns of dung beetles, confer resilience to the commensalist dung beetle-mammal networks. This study highlights the importance of protecting logged and fragmented forests to maintain interaction networks and potentially prevent extinction cascades in human-modified systems.
  17. Williams SH, Scriven SA, Burslem DFRP, Hill JK, Reynolds G, Agama AL, et al.
    Conserv Biol, 2020 08;34(4):934-942.
    PMID: 31840279 DOI: 10.1111/cobi.13450
    Conservation planning tends to focus on protecting species' ranges or landscape connectivity but seldom both-particularly in the case of diverse taxonomic assemblages and multiple planning goals. Therefore, information on potential trade-offs between maintaining landscape connectivity and achieving other conservation objectives is lacking. We developed an optimization approach to prioritize the maximal protection of species' ranges, ecosystem types, and forest carbon stocks, while also including habitat connectivity for range-shifting species and dispersal corridors to link protected area. We applied our approach to Sabah, Malaysia, where the state government mandated an increase in protected-area coverage of approximately 305,000 ha but did not specify where new protected areas should be. Compared with a conservation planning approach that did not incorporate the 2 connectivity features, our approach increased the protection of dispersal corridors and elevational connectivity by 13% and 21%, respectively. Coverage of vertebrate and plant species' ranges and forest types were the same whether connectivity was included or excluded. Our approach protected 2% less forest carbon and 3% less butterfly range than when connectivity features were not included. Hence, the inclusion of connectivity into conservation planning can generate large increases in the protection of landscape connectivity with minimal loss of representation of other conservation targets.
  18. Moyes CL, Shearer FM, Huang Z, Wiebe A, Gibson HS, Nijman V, et al.
    Parasit Vectors, 2016 Apr 28;9:242.
    PMID: 27125995 DOI: 10.1186/s13071-016-1527-0
    BACKGROUND: Plasmodium knowlesi is a zoonotic pathogen, transmitted among macaques and to humans by anopheline mosquitoes. Information on P. knowlesi malaria is lacking in most regions so the first step to understand the geographical distribution of disease risk is to define the distributions of the reservoir and vector species.

    METHODS: We used macaque and mosquito species presence data, background data that captured sampling bias in the presence data, a boosted regression tree model and environmental datasets, including annual data for land classes, to predict the distributions of each vector and host species. We then compared the predicted distribution of each species with cover of each land class.

    RESULTS: Fine-scale distribution maps were generated for three macaque host species (Macaca fascicularis, M. nemestrina and M. leonina) and two mosquito vector complexes (the Dirus Complex and the Leucosphyrus Complex). The Leucosphyrus Complex was predicted to occur in areas with disturbed, but not intact, forest cover (> 60% tree cover) whereas the Dirus Complex was predicted to occur in areas with 10-100% tree cover as well as vegetation mosaics and cropland. Of the macaque species, M. nemestrina was mainly predicted to occur in forested areas whereas M. fascicularis was predicted to occur in vegetation mosaics, cropland, wetland and urban areas in addition to forested areas.

    CONCLUSIONS: The predicted M. fascicularis distribution encompassed a wide range of habitats where humans are found. This is of most significance in the northern part of its range where members of the Dirus Complex are the main P. knowlesi vectors because these mosquitoes were also predicted to occur in a wider range of habitats. Our results support the hypothesis that conversion of intact forest into disturbed forest (for example plantations or timber concessions), or the creation of vegetation mosaics, will increase the probability that members of the Leucosphyrus Complex occur at these locations, as well as bringing humans into these areas. An explicit analysis of disease risk itself using infection data is required to explore this further. The species distributions generated here can now be included in future analyses of P. knowlesi infection risk.

  19. Brodie JF, Mohd-Azlan J, Chen C, Wearn OR, Deith MCM, Ball JGC, et al.
    Nature, 2024 Jan;625(7996):E28.
    PMID: 38182924 DOI: 10.1038/s41586-023-07007-2
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