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Source identification in river pollution incidents using a cellular automata model and Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo method

Wang W, Ji C, Li C, Wu W, Gisen JIA

Environ Sci Pollut Res Int, 2023 Jun 03.
PMID: 37269522 DOI: 10.1007/s11356-023-27988-x

Identification of contaminant sources in rivers is crucial for river protection and emergency response. This study presents an innovative approach for identifying river pollution sources by using Bayesian inference and cellular automata (CA) modeling. A general Bayesian framework is proposed that combines the CA model with observed data to identify unknown sources of river pollution. To reduce the computational burden of the Bayesian inference, a CA contaminant transport model is developed to efficiently simulate pollutant concentration values in the river. These simulated concentration values are then used to calculate the likelihood function of available measurements. The Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is used to produce the posterior distribution of contaminant source parameters, which is a sampling-based method that enables the estimation of complex posterior distributions. The suggested methodology is applied to a real case study of the Fen River in Yuncheng City, Shanxi Province, Northern China, and it estimates the release time, release mass, and source location with relative errors below 19%. The research indicates that the proposed methodology is an effective and flexible way to identify the location and concentrations of river contaminant sources.
Fulltext VSHR: A Mathematical Model for the Prediction of Second-Wave COVID-19 Epidemics in Malaysia

Yu X, Lu L, Guo J, Qin H, Ji C

Comput Math Methods Med, 2022;2022:4168619.
PMID: 35087601 DOI: 10.1155/2022/4168619

Since December 2019, a novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has spread all over the world, causing unpredictable economic losses and public fear. Although vaccines against this virus have been developed and administered for months, many countries still suffer from secondary COVID-19 infections, including the United Kingdom, France, and Malaysia. Observations of COVID-19 infections in the United Kingdom and France and their governance measures showed a certain number of similarities. A further investigation of these countries' COVID-19 transmission patterns suggested that when a turning point appeared, the values of their stringency indices per population density (PSI) were nearly proportional to their absolute infection rate (AIR). To justify our assumptions, we developed a mathematical model named VSHR to predict the COVID-19 turning point for Malaysia. VSHR was first trained on 30-day infection records prior to the United Kingdom, Germany, France, and Belgium's known turning points. It was then transferred to Malaysian COVID-19 data to predict this nation's turning point. Given the estimated AIR parameter values in 5 days, we were now able to locate the turning point's appearance on June 2nd, 2021. VSHR offered two improvements: (1) gathered countries into groups based on their SI patterns and (2) generated a model to identify the turning point for a target country within 5 days with 90% CI. Our research on COVID-19's turning point for a country is beneficial for governments and clinical systems against future COVID-19 infections.
Fulltext Effect of moderate to high intensity aerobic exercise on blood pressure in young adults: The TEPHRA open, two-arm, parallel superiority randomized clinical trial

Williamson W, Lewandowski AJ, Huckstep OJ, Lapidaire W, Ooms A, Tan C, et al.

EClinicalMedicine, 2022 Jun;48:101445.
PMID: 35706495 DOI: 10.1016/j.eclinm.2022.101445

BACKGROUND: Exercise is advised for young adults with elevated blood pressure, but no trials have investigated efficacy at this age. We aimed to determine whether aerobic exercise, self-monitoring and motivational coaching lowers blood pressure in this group.
METHODS: The study was a single-centre, open, two-arm, parallel superiority randomized clinical trial with open community-based recruitment of physically-inactive 18-35 year old adults with awake 24 h blood pressure 115/75mmHg-159/99 mmHg and BMI<35 kg/m2. The study took place in the Cardiovascular Clinical Research Facility, John Radcliffe Hospital, Oxford, UK. Participants were randomized (1:1) with minimisation factors sex, age (<24, 24-29, 30-35 years) and gestational age at birth (<32, 32-37, >37 weeks) to the intervention group, who received 16-weeks aerobic exercise training (three aerobic training sessions per week of 60 min per session at 60-80% peak heart rate, physical activity self-monitoring with encouragement to do 10,000 steps per day and motivational coaching to maintain physical activity upon completion of the intervention. The control group were sign-posted to educational materials on hypertension and recommended lifestyle behaviours. Investigators performing statistical analyses were blinded to group allocation. The primary outcome was 24 h awake ambulatory blood pressure (systolic and diastolic) change from baseline to 16-weeks on an intention-to-treat basis. Clinicaltrials.gov registered on March 30, 2016 (NCT02723552).
FINDINGS: Enrolment occurred between 30/06/2016-26/10/2018. Amongst the 203 randomized young adults (n = 102 in the intervention group; n = 101 in the control group), 178 (88%; n = 76 intervention group, n = 84 control group) completed 16-week follow-up and 160 (79%; n = 68 intervention group, n = 69 control group) completed 52-weeks follow-up. There were no group differences in awake systolic (0·0 mmHg [95%CI, -2·9 to 2·8]; P = 0·98) or awake diastolic ambulatory blood pressure (0·6 mmHg [95%CI, -1·4. to 2·6]; P = 0·58). Aerobic training increased peak oxygen uptake (2·8 ml/kg/min [95%CI, 1·6 to 4·0]) and peak wattage (14·2watts [95%CI, 7·6 to 20·9]) at 16-weeks. There were no intervention effects at 52-weeks follow-up.
INTEPRETATION: These results do not support the exclusive use of moderate to high intensity aerobic exercise training for blood pressure control in young adults.
FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, British Heart Foundation, National Institute for Health Research, Oxford Biomedical Research Centre.
The Medication Risk of Stevens-Johnson Syndrome and Toxic Epidermal Necrolysis in Asians: The Major Drug Causality and Comparison With the US FDA Label

Wang YH, Chen CB, Tassaneeyakul W, Saito Y, Aihara M, Choon SE, et al.

Clin. Pharmacol. Ther., 2019 01;105(1):112-120.
PMID: 29569740 DOI: 10.1002/cpt.1071

Specific ethnic genetic backgrounds are associated with the risk of Stevens-Johnson syndrome / toxic epidermal necrolysis (SJS/TEN) especially in Asians. However, there have been no large cohort, multiple-country epidemiological studies of medication risk related to SJS/TEN in Asian populations. Thus, we analyzed the registration databases from multiple Asian countries who were treated during 1998-2017. A total 1,028 SJS/TEN cases were identified with the algorithm of drug causality for epidermal necrolysis. Furthermore, those medications labeled by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) as carrying a risk of SJS/TEN were also compared with the common causes of SJS/TEN in Asian countries. Oxcarbazepine, sulfasalazine, COX-II inhibitors, and strontium ranelate were identified as new potential causes. In addition to sulfa drugs and beta-lactam antibiotics, quinolones were also a common cause. Only one acetaminophen-induced SJS was identified, while several medications (e.g., oseltamivir, terbinafine, isotretinoin, and sorafenib) labeled as carrying a risk of SJS/TEN by the FDA were not found to have caused any of the cases in the Asian countries investigated in this study.