DESIGN: A Stock-and-Flow simulation model was used to project smoking prevalence and mortality from 2018 to 2050 under eight different scenarios: (1) maintaining the 2018 status quo, (2) implementation of smoke-free policies, (3) tobacco use cessation programmes, (4-5) health warning about the dangers of tobacco (labels, mass media), (6) enforcement of tobacco advertising bans or (7) tobacco taxation at the highest recommended level and (8) all these interventions combined.
RESULTS: Under the status quo, the smoking prevalence in Japan will decrease from 29.6% to 15.5% in men and 8.3% to 4.7% in women by 2050. Full implementation of MPOWER will accelerate this trend, dropping the prevalence to 10.6% in men and 3.2% in women, and save nearly a quarter million deaths by 2050. This reduction implies that Japan will only attain the current national target of 12% overall smoking prevalence in 2033, 8 years earlier than it would with the status quo (in 2041), a significant delay from the national government's 2022 deadline.
CONCLUSIONS: To bring forward the elimination of tobacco smoking and substantially reduce smoking-related deaths, the government of Japan should fulfil its commitment to the FCTC and adopt stringent tobacco control measures delineated by MPOWER and beyond.
METHODS: Cross-sectional data among adults who smoked cigarettes came from the International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation Project Surveys-Brazil (2016/2017), Japan (2021), Republic of Korea (2021), Malaysia (2020) and Mexico (2021). FCCs use was measured based on reporting one's usual/current brand or favourite variety has flavour capsule(s). Perceptions of the harmfulness of one's usual brand versus other brands were compared between those who used capsules versus no capsules. Adjusted logistic regression models examined correlates of FCC use.
RESULTS: There were substantial differences in the prevalence of FCC use among adults who smoke across the five countries: Mexico (50.3% in 2021), Republic of Korea (31.8% in 2021), Malaysia (26.5% in 2020), Japan (21.6% in 2021) and Brazil (6.7% in 2016/2017). Correlates of FCC use varied across countries. Capsule use was positively associated with being female in Japan and Mexico, younger age in Japan, Republic of Korea and Malaysia, high education in Brazil, Japan and Mexico, non-daily smoking in Republic of Korea, and having plans to quit in Japan and Republic of Korea. There was no consistent pattern of consumer perceptions of brand harmfulness.
CONCLUSION: Our study documented the high prevalence of FCCs in some countries, pointing to the need to develop and implement regulatory strategies to control these attractive products.