PATIENTS AND METHODS: Data of 2360 patients from APASL-ACLF Research Consortium (AARC) was analysed. Multivariate logistic regression model (PIRO score) was developed from a derivation cohort (n=1363) which was validated in another prospective multicentric cohort of acute on chronic liver failure patients (n=997).
RESULTS: Factors significant for P component were serum creatinine[(≥2 mg/dL)OR 4.52, 95% CI (3.67-5.30)], bilirubin [(<12 mg/dL,OR 1) vs (12-30 mg/dL,OR 1.45, 95% 1.1-2.63) vs (≥30 mg/dL,OR 2.6, 95% CI 1.3-5.2)], serum potassium [(<3 mmol/LOR-1) vs (3-4.9 mmol/L,OR 2.7, 95% CI 1.05-1.97) vs (≥5 mmol/L,OR 4.34, 95% CI 1.67-11.3)] and blood urea (OR 3.73, 95% CI 2.5-5.5); for I component nephrotoxic medications (OR-9.86, 95% CI 3.2-30.8); for R component,Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome,(OR-2.14, 95% CI 1.4-3.3); for O component, Circulatory failure (OR-3.5, 95% CI 2.2-5.5). The PIRO score predicted acute kidney injury with C-index of 0.95 and 0.96 in the derivation and validation cohort. The increasing PIRO score was also associated with mortality (P
METHODS: We identified drugs as precipitants of ACLF among prospective cohort of patients with ACLF from the Asian Pacific Association of Study of Liver (APASL) ACLF Research Consortium (AARC) database. Drugs were considered precipitants after exclusion of known causes together with a temporal association between exposure and decompensation. Outcome was defined as death from decompensation.
RESULTS: Of the 3,132 patients with ACLF, drugs were implicated as a cause in 329 (10.5%, mean age 47 years, 65% men) and other nondrug causes in 2,803 (89.5%) (group B). Complementary and alternative medications (71.7%) were the commonest insult, followed by combination antituberculosis therapy drugs (27.3%). Alcoholic liver disease (28.6%), cryptogenic liver disease (25.5%), and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) (16.7%) were common causes of underlying liver diseases. Patients with drug-induced ACLF had jaundice (100%), ascites (88%), encephalopathy (46.5%), high Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) (30.2), and Child-Turcotte-Pugh score (12.1). The overall 90-day mortality was higher in drug-induced (46.5%) than in non-drug-induced ACLF (38.8%) (P = 0.007). The Cox regression model identified arterial lactate (P < 0.001) and total bilirubin (P = 0.008) as predictors of mortality.
DISCUSSION: Drugs are important identifiable causes of ACLF in Asia-Pacific countries, predominantly from complementary and alternative medications, followed by antituberculosis drugs. Encephalopathy, bilirubin, blood urea, lactate, and international normalized ratio (INR) predict mortality in drug-induced ACLF.
METHODS: Patients with MAFLD-ACLF were recruited from the Asian Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver-ACLF Research Consortium (AARC registry). The diagnosis of MAFLD-ACLF was made when the treating unit had identified the etiology of chronic liver disease as MAFLD (or previous nomenclature such as non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis, or non-alcoholic steatohepatitis-cirrhosis). Patients with coexisting other etiologies of chronic liver disease (such as alcohol, hepatitis B virus, hepatitis C virus, etc.) were excluded. Data were randomly split into derivation (n = 258) and validation (n = 111) cohorts at a 70:30 ratio. The primary outcome was 90-day mortality. Only the baseline clinical, laboratory features and severity scores were considered.
RESULTS: The derivation group had 258 patients; 60% were male, with a mean age of 53. Diabetes was noted in 27% and hypertension in 29%. The dominant precipitants included viral hepatitis (hepatitis A virus and hepatitis E virus, 32%), drug-induced injury (drug-induced liver injury, 29%), and sepsis (23%). Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Sodium (MELD-Na) and AARC scores on admission averaged 32 ± 6 and 10.4 ± 1.9. At 90 days, 51% survived. Nonviral precipitant, diabetes, bilirubin, international normalized ratio, and encephalopathy were independent factors influencing mortality. Adding diabetes and precipitant to MELD-Na and AARC scores, the novel MAFLD-MELD-Na score (+12 for diabetes, +12 for nonviral precipitant), and MAFLD-AARC score (+5 for each) were formed. These outperformed the standard scores in both cohorts.
DISCUSSION: Almost half of patients with MAFLD-ACLF die within 90 days. Diabetes and nonviral precipitants such as drug-induced liver injury and sepsis lead to adverse outcomes. The new MAFLD-MELD-Na and MAFLD-AARC scores provide reliable 90-day mortality predictions for patients with MAFLD-ACLF.