METHODS: We adapted a dynamic model of HIV transmission among MSM/TW in Lima to incorporate stimulant use and increased HIV risk, suicide and CVD mortality. Among 6% to 24% of MSM/TW using stimulants (mostly cocaine), we modelled an increased risk of unprotected anal sex (RR = 1.35 [95%CI: 1.17 to 1.57]) obtained from local data, and increased risk of suicide (SMR = 6.26 [95%CI: 2.84 to 13.80]) and CVD (SMR = 1.83 [95%CI: 0.39 to 8.57]) mortality associated with cocaine use based on a global systematic review. We estimated the proportion of health harms occurring among MSM/TW who use stimulants in the next year (01-2020/01-2021). We also investigated the 10-year impact (01-2020/01-2030) of: (1) PrEP prioritization for stimulant-using MSM/TW compared to random allocation, and (2) integrating PrEP with a theoretical intervention halving stimulant-associated risk.
RESULTS: MSM/TW in Lima will experience high HIV incidence, suicide mortality and CVD mortality (1.6/100 py, and 0.018/100 py, 0.13/100 py respectively) in 2020. Despite stimulant using MSM/TW comprising an estimated 9.5% (95%CI: 7.8 to 11.5) of all MSM/TW, in the next year, 11% 95%CI (i.e. 2.5% to 97.5% percentile) 10% to 13%) of new HIV infections, 39% (95%CI: 18% to 60%) of suicides and 15% (95%CI: 3% to 44%) of CVD deaths could occur among this group. Scaling up PrEP among all stimulant using MSM/TW could prevent 19% (95%CI: 11% to 31%) more HIV infections over 10 years compared to random allocation. Integrating PrEP and an intervention to halve stimulant-associated risks could reduce new HIV infections by 20% (95%CI: 10% to 37%), suicide deaths by 14% (95%CI: 5% to 27%) and CVD deaths by 3% (95%CI: 0% to 16%) over a decade.
CONCLUSIONS: MSM/TW who use stimulants experience a disproportionate burden of health harms. Prioritizing PrEP based on stimulant use, in addition to sexual behaviour/gender identity criteria, could increase its impact. Integrated substance use, harm reduction, mental health and HIV care among MSM/TW is needed.
METHODS: A prospective, observational study in 17 countries in Africa, Asia, Europe and South America, including adults with confirmed COVID-19 assessed at 2 to <6 and 6 to <12 months post-hospital discharge. A standardised case report form developed by International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infection Consortium's Global COVID-19 Follow-up working group evaluated the frequency of fever, persistent symptoms, breathlessness (MRC dyspnoea scale), fatigue and impact on daily activities.
RESULTS: Of 11 860 participants (median age: 52 (IQR: 41-62) years; 52.1% females), 56.5% were from HICs and 43.5% were from LMICs. The proportion identified with Long Covid was significantly higher in HICs vs LMICs at both assessment time points (69.0% vs 45.3%, p<0.001; 69.7% vs 42.4%, p<0.001). Participants in HICs were more likely to report not feeling fully recovered (54.3% vs 18.0%, p<0.001; 56.8% vs 40.1%, p<0.001), fatigue (42.9% vs 27.9%, p<0.001; 41.6% vs 27.9%, p<0.001), new/persistent fever (19.6% vs 2.1%, p<0.001; 20.3% vs 2.0%, p<0.001) and have a higher prevalence of anxiety/depression and impact on usual activities compared with participants in LMICs at 2 to <6 and 6 to <12 months post-COVID-19 hospital discharge, respectively.
CONCLUSION: Our data show that Long Covid affects populations globally, manifesting similar symptomatology and impact on functioning in both HIC and LMICs. The prevalence was higher in HICs versus LMICs. Although we identified a lower prevalence, the impact of Long Covid may be greater in LMICs if there is a lack of support systems available in HICs. Further research into the aetiology of Long Covid and the burden in LMICs is critical to implement effective, accessible treatment and support strategies to improve COVID-19 outcomes for all.