METHODS: We established a multi-country cross-sectional dataset of first available quantitative HCV RNA linked to demographic and clinical data. We excluded individuals on HCV treatment. We analyzed the distribution of HCV RNA and determined critical thresholds for detection of HCV viraemia. We then performed logistic regression to evaluate factors associated with LLV, and derived relative sensitivities for significant covariates.
RESULTS: The dataset included 66,640 individuals with HCV viraemia from Georgia (44.4%), Canada (40.9%), India (8.1%), Cambodia (2.6%), Egypt (1.6%), Pakistan (1.3%), Cameroon (0.4%), Indonesia (0.2%), Thailand (0.2%), Vietnam (0.1%), Malaysia (0.05%), and Mozambique (0.02%). The 97% LOD was 1,318 IU/mL (95% CI 1298.4, 1322.3). Factors associated with LLV were younger age 18-30 vs. 51-64 years (OR 2.56 95% CI 2.19, 2.99), female vs. male sex (OR 1.32, 95% CI 1.18, 1.49), and advanced fibrosis stage F4 vs. F0-1 (OR 1.44, 95%CI 1.21, 1.69). Only the younger age group had a decreased relative sensitivity below 95% at 93.3%.
CONCLUSIONS: In this global dataset, a test with an LOD of 1,318 IU/mL would identify 97% of viraemic HCV infections among almost all populations. This LOD will help guide manufacturers in the development of affordable POC diagnostics to expand HCV testing and linkage to care in LMICs.
LAY SUMMARY: We created and analyzed a dataset from 12 countries with 66,640 participants with chronic hepatitis C virus infection. We determined that about 97% of those with viraemic infection had 1300 International Units/mL or more of circulating virus at the time of diagnosis. While current diagnostic tests can detect as little as 12 International Units/mL of virus, our findings suggest that increasing the level of detection closer to 1300 would maintain good test accuracy and will likely allow for more affordable portable tests to be developed for use in low and middle income countries.
METHODS: 2010-2015 incidence data for influenza A (IAV), influenza B (IBV), respiratory syncytial (RSV) and parainfluenza (PIV) virus infections were collected from 18 sites (14 countries), consisting of local (n = 6), regional (n = 9) and national (n = 3) laboratories using molecular diagnostic methods. Each site submitted monthly virus incidence data, together with details of their patient populations tested and diagnostic assays used.
RESULTS: For the Northern Hemisphere temperate countries, the IAV, IBV and RSV incidence peaks were 2-6 months out of phase with those in the Southern Hemisphere, with IAV having a sharp out-of-phase difference at 6 months, whereas IBV and RSV showed more variable out-of-phase differences of 2-6 months. The tropical sites Singapore and Kuala Lumpur showed fluctuating incidence of these viruses throughout the year, whereas subtropical sites such as Hong Kong, Brisbane and Sydney showed distinctive biannual peaks for IAV but not for RSV and PIV.
CONCLUSIONS: There was a notable pattern of synchrony of IAV, IBV and RSV incidence peaks globally, and within countries with multiple sampling sites (Canada, UK, Australia), despite significant distances between these sites.