Norway has achieved a noteworthy reduction in smoking prevalence over the past forty years. In 2015, 13% of Norwegians aged 13-74 smoked daily and a further 9% smoked occasionally. One of the objectives of the Norwegian 2013-16 national strategy for tobacco control is to achieve a reduction in the daily smoking prevalence to < 10% by 2016. This paper aims to estimate how long it will take for Norway to achieve the 10% smoking prevalence.