METHODS: A deterministic, prevalence-based model was used to project the annual health burden and direct medical costs associated with recurrent ASCVD events over a 10-year horizon. The target population included adults (≥30 years) with established ASCVD and uncontrolled LDL-C levels (>1.8 mmol/L). The model comprised 3 modules: population size projection, recurrent ASCVD risk calculation (by means of the Secondary Manifestations of ARTerial disease [SMART] risk model), and direct medical and productivity cost estimation. The current status quo and a scenario with a 50% improvement in mean LDL-C were compared.

RESULTS: We projected over 800 000 adults with established ASCVD in 2023, increasing to approximately 1.4 million by 2032. Under the status quo, about 55 000 recurrent ASCVD events were expected within 10 years, with significant direct medical costs and productivity losses. Improved LDL-C control could potentially reduce recurrent events by 7000 cases (13% reduction), prevent 2100 premature deaths, and save approximately 32 400 years of life. Economically, this could lead to a reduction of approximately 72 million MYR in direct medical costs and a gain of approximately 132.4 million MYR in productivity over a decade.