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Do stock returns respond to physical and transition climate risks? Evidence from emerging BRICS economies

Saqib A, Hussain I, Mefteh-Wali S

J Environ Manage, 2024 Dec;372:123303.
PMID: 39561456 DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.123303

This study examines how stock market returns in emerging BRICS economies respond to growing physical and transition climate risks. To capture the physical climate risk, we use the frequency of natural disasters, the number of people affected by natural disasters, temperature anomaly, and precipitation anomaly. For transition risk, we included two climate-policy uncertainty measures. First, we conduct a panel-level analysis using a cross-sectionally augmented autoregressive distributed lag model. Second, for country-level analysis, we applied the augmented autoregressive distributed lag model to the monthly dataset from January-2000 to March-2023. The empirical results show that an increase in transition climate risk causes a significant and negative shock to stock returns, both in the short- and long-term in the panel and across each BRICS country. Second, we find that physical climate risk indicators have a significant and negative impact on stock returns in China, India, and South Africa, but not in Brazil or Russia. We conclude that the impact of physical climate risk on stock returns is country-specific, and that the impact of transition climate risk is widespread. These findings provide important insights for investors, regulators, hedgers, portfolio managers, and policymakers regarding policy formulation and future investment strategies.
Fulltext Global Impact of COVID-19 on Stroke Care and IV Thrombolysis

Nogueira RG, Qureshi MM, Abdalkader M, Martins SO, Yamagami H, Qiu Z, et al.

Neurology, 2021 Jun 08;96(23):e2824-e2838.
PMID: 33766997 DOI: 10.1212/WNL.0000000000011885

OBJECTIVE: To measure the global impact of COVID-19 pandemic on volumes of IV thrombolysis (IVT), IVT transfers, and stroke hospitalizations over 4 months at the height of the pandemic (March 1 to June 30, 2020) compared with 2 control 4-month periods.
METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional, observational, retrospective study across 6 continents, 70 countries, and 457 stroke centers. Diagnoses were identified by their ICD-10 codes or classifications in stroke databases.
RESULTS: There were 91,373 stroke admissions in the 4 months immediately before compared to 80,894 admissions during the pandemic months, representing an 11.5% (95% confidence interval [CI] -11.7 to -11.3, p < 0.0001) decline. There were 13,334 IVT therapies in the 4 months preceding compared to 11,570 procedures during the pandemic, representing a 13.2% (95% CI -13.8 to -12.7, p < 0.0001) drop. Interfacility IVT transfers decreased from 1,337 to 1,178, or an 11.9% decrease (95% CI -13.7 to -10.3, p = 0.001). Recovery of stroke hospitalization volume (9.5%, 95% CI 9.2-9.8, p < 0.0001) was noted over the 2 later (May, June) vs the 2 earlier (March, April) pandemic months. There was a 1.48% stroke rate across 119,967 COVID-19 hospitalizations. Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection was noted in 3.3% (1,722/52,026) of all stroke admissions.
CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic was associated with a global decline in the volume of stroke hospitalizations, IVT, and interfacility IVT transfers. Primary stroke centers and centers with higher COVID-19 inpatient volumes experienced steeper declines. Recovery of stroke hospitalization was noted in the later pandemic months.
Fulltext Global Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Stroke Volumes and Cerebrovascular Events: A 1-Year Follow-up

Nguyen TN, Qureshi MM, Klein P, Yamagami H, Mikulik R, Czlonkowska A, et al.

Neurology, 2023 Jan 24;100(4):e408-e421.
PMID: 36257718 DOI: 10.1212/WNL.0000000000201426

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Declines in stroke admission, IV thrombolysis (IVT), and mechanical thrombectomy volumes were reported during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. There is a paucity of data on the longer-term effect of the pandemic on stroke volumes over the course of a year and through the second wave of the pandemic. We sought to measure the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the volumes of stroke admissions, intracranial hemorrhage (ICH), IVT, and mechanical thrombectomy over a 1-year period at the onset of the pandemic (March 1, 2020, to February 28, 2021) compared with the immediately preceding year (March 1, 2019, to February 29, 2020).
METHODS: We conducted a longitudinal retrospective study across 6 continents, 56 countries, and 275 stroke centers. We collected volume data for COVID-19 admissions and 4 stroke metrics: ischemic stroke admissions, ICH admissions, IVT treatments, and mechanical thrombectomy procedures. Diagnoses were identified by their ICD-10 codes or classifications in stroke databases.
RESULTS: There were 148,895 stroke admissions in the 1 year immediately before compared with 138,453 admissions during the 1-year pandemic, representing a 7% decline (95% CI [95% CI 7.1-6.9]; p < 0.0001). ICH volumes declined from 29,585 to 28,156 (4.8% [5.1-4.6]; p < 0.0001) and IVT volume from 24,584 to 23,077 (6.1% [6.4-5.8]; p < 0.0001). Larger declines were observed at high-volume compared with low-volume centers (all p < 0.0001). There was no significant change in mechanical thrombectomy volumes (0.7% [0.6-0.9]; p = 0.49). Stroke was diagnosed in 1.3% [1.31-1.38] of 406,792 COVID-19 hospitalizations. SARS-CoV-2 infection was present in 2.9% ([2.82-2.97], 5,656/195,539) of all stroke hospitalizations.
DISCUSSION: There was a global decline and shift to lower-volume centers of stroke admission volumes, ICH volumes, and IVT volumes during the 1st year of the COVID-19 pandemic compared with the prior year. Mechanical thrombectomy volumes were preserved. These results suggest preservation in the stroke care of higher severity of disease through the first pandemic year.
TRIAL REGISTRATION INFORMATION: This study is registered under NCT04934020.

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