METHODS: The pharmacology module consisted of a pharmacokinetic distribution of oseltamivir carboxylate daily area under the concentration-time curve at steady state (simulated for 75 mg and 150 mg twice daily regimens for 5 days) and a pharmacodynamic distribution of viral shedding duration obtained from phase II influenza inoculation data. The epidemiological module comprised a susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered (SEIR) model to which drug effect on the basic reproductive number (R0 ), a measure of transmissibility, was linked by reduction of viral shedding duration. The number of infected patients per population of 100 000 susceptible individuals was simulated for a series of pandemic scenarios, varying oseltamivir dose, R0 (1.9 vs. 2.7), and drug uptake (25%, 50%, and 80%). The number of infected patients for each scenario was entered into the health economics module, a decision analytic model populated with branch probabilities, disease utility, costs of hospitalized patients developing complications, and case-fatality rates. Change in quality-adjusted life years was determined relative to base case.

RESULTS: Oseltamivir 75 mg relative to no treatment reduced the median number of infected patients, increased change in quality-adjusted life years by deaths averted, and was cost-saving under all scenarios; 150 mg relative to 75 mg was not cost effective in low transmissibility scenarios but was cost saving in high transmissibility scenarios.

METHODS: This was a Phase 2 study of the oral RSV fusion protein inhibitor AK0529 in infants aged 1-24 months, hospitalized with RSV infection. In Part 1, patients (n = 24) were randomized 2:1 to receive a single dose of AK0529 up to 4 mg/kg or placebo. In Part 2, patients (n = 48) were randomized 2:1 to receive AK0529 at 0.5, 1, or 2 mg/kg bid or placebo for 5 days. Sparse pharmacokinetic samples were assessed using population pharmacokinetics modelling. Safety, tolerability, viral load, and respiratory signs and symptoms were assessed daily during treatment.

RESULTS: No safety or tolerability signals were detected for AK0529: grade ≥3 treatment-emergent adverse events occurring in 4.1% of patients in AK0529 and 4.2% in placebo groups, respectively, and none led to death or withdrawal from the study. In Part 2, targeted drug exposure was reached with 2 mg/kg bid. A numerically greater reduction in median viral load with 2 mg/kg bid AK0529 than with placebo at 96 h was observed. A -4.0 (95% CI: -4.51, -2.03) median reduction in Wang Respiratory Score from baseline to 96 h was observed in the 2 mg/kg group compared with -2.0 (95% CI: -3.42, -1.82) in the placebo group.

CONCLUSIONS: AK0529 was well tolerated in hospitalized RSV-infected infant patients. Treatment with AK0529 2 mg/kg bid was observed to reduce viral load and Wang Respiratory Score.