COVID-19 is a highly contagious disease that has infected over 136 million people worldwide with over 2.9 million deaths as of 11 April 2021. In March 2020, the WHO declared COVID-19 as a pandemic and countries began to implement measures to control the spread of the virus. The spread and the death rates of the virus displayed dramatic differences among countries globally, showing that there are several factors affecting its spread and mortality. By utilizing the cumulative number of cases from John Hopkins University, the recovery rate, death rate, and the number of active, recovered, and death cases were simulated to analyse the trends and patterns within the chosen countries. 10 countries from 3 different case severity categories (high cases, medium cases, and low cases) and 5 continents (Asia, North America, South America, Europe, and Oceania) were studied. A generalized SEIR model which considers control measures such as isolation, and preventive measures such as vaccination is applied in this study. This model is able to capture not only the dynamics between the states, but also the time evolution of the states by using the fourth-order-Runge-Kutta process. This study found no significant patterns in the countries under the same case severity category, suggesting that there are other factors contributing to the pattern in these countries. One of the factors influencing the pattern in each country is the population's age. COVID-19 related deaths were found to be notably higher among older people, indicating that countries comprising of a larger proportion of older age groups have an increased risk of experiencing higher death rates. Tighter governmental control measures led to fewer infections and eventually reduced the number of death cases, while increasing the recovery rate, and early implementations were found to be far more effective in controlling the spread of the virus and produced better outcomes.
The worldwide outbreak of COVID-19 disease was caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV 2). The existence of spike proteins, which allow these viruses to infect host cells, is one of the distinctive biological traits of various prior viruses. As a result, the process by which these viruses infect people is largely dependent on spike proteins. The density of SARS-CoV-2 spike proteins must be estimated to better understand and develop diagnostics and vaccines against the COVID-19 pandemic. CT scans and X-rays have three issues: frosted glass, consolidation, and strange roadway layouts. Each of these issues can be graded separately or together. Although CT scan is sensitive to COVID-19, it is not very specific. Therefore, patients who obtain these results should have more comprehensive clinical and laboratory tests to rule out other probable reasons. This work collected 586 SARS-CoV 2 transmission electron microscopy (TEM) images from open source for density estimation of virus spike proteins through a segmentation approach based on the superpixel technique. As a result, the spike density means of SARS-CoV2 and SARS-CoV were 21,97 nm and 22,45 nm, respectively. Furthermore, in the future, we aim to include this model in an intelligent system to enhance the accuracy of viral detection and classification. Moreover, we can remotely connect hospitals and public sites to conduct environmental hazard assessments and data collection.
The COVID-19 pandemic has posed an unprecedented threat to the global public health system, primarily infecting the airway epithelial cells in the respiratory tract. Chest X-ray (CXR) is widely available, faster, and less expensive therefore it is preferred to monitor the lungs for COVID-19 diagnosis over other techniques such as molecular test, antigen test, antibody test, and chest computed tomography (CT). As the pandemic continues to reveal the limitations of our current ecosystems, researchers are coming together to share their knowledge and experience in order to develop new systems to tackle it. In this work, an end-to-end IoT infrastructure is designed and built to diagnose patients remotely in the case of a pandemic, limiting COVID-19 dissemination while also improving measurement science. The proposed framework comprises six steps. In the last step, a model is designed to interpret CXR images and intelligently measure the severity of COVID-19 lung infections using a novel deep neural network (DNN). The proposed DNN employs multi-scale sampling filters to extract reliable and noise-invariant features from a variety of image patches. Experiments are conducted on five publicly available databases, including COVIDx, COVID-19 Radiography, COVID-XRay-5K, COVID-19-CXR, and COVIDchestxray, with classification accuracies of 96.01%, 99.62%, 99.22%, 98.83%, and 100%, and testing times of 0.541, 0.692, 1.28, 0.461, and 0.202 s, respectively. The obtained results show that the proposed model surpasses fourteen baseline techniques. As a result, the newly developed model could be utilized to evaluate treatment efficacy, particularly in remote locations.
In outbreak detection, one of the key issues is the need to deal with the weakness of early outbreak signals because this causes the detection model to have has less capability in terms of robustness when unseen outbreak patterns vary from those in the trained model. As a result, an imbalance between high detection rate and low false alarm rate occurs. To solve this problem, this study proposes a novel outbreak detection model based on danger theory; a bio-inspired method that replicates how the human body fights pathogens. We propose a signal formalization approach based on cumulative sum and a cumulative mature antigen contact value to suit the outbreak characteristic and danger theory. Two outbreak diseases, dengue and SARS, are subjected to a danger theory algorithm; namely the dendritic cell algorithm. To evaluate the model, four measurement metrics are applied: detection rate, specificity, false alarm rate, and accuracy. From the experiment, the proposed model outperforms the other detection approaches and shows a significant improvement for both diseases outbreak detection. The findings reveal that the robustness of the proposed immune model increases when dealing with inconsistent outbreak signals. The model is able to detect new unknown outbreak patterns and can discriminate between outbreak and non-outbreak cases with a consistent high detection rate, high sensitivity, and lower false alarm rate even without a training phase.