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Forecasting asthma-related hospital admissions in London using negative binomial models

Soyiri IN, Reidpath DD, Sarran C

Chron Respir Dis, 2013 May;10(2):85-94.
PMID: 23620439 DOI: 10.1177/1479972313482847

Health forecasting can improve health service provision and individual patient outcomes. Environmental factors are known to impact chronic respiratory conditions such as asthma, but little is known about the extent to which these factors can be used for forecasting. Using weather, air quality and hospital asthma admissions, in London (2005-2006), two related negative binomial models were developed and compared with a naive seasonal model. In the first approach, predictive forecasting models were fitted with 7-day averages of each potential predictor, and then a subsequent multivariable model is constructed. In the second strategy, an exhaustive search of the best fitting models between possible combinations of lags (0-14 days) of all the environmental effects on asthma admission was conducted. Three models were considered: a base model (seasonal effects), contrasted with a 7-day average model and a selected lags model (weather and air quality effects). Season is the best predictor of asthma admissions. The 7-day average and seasonal models were trivial to implement. The selected lags model was computationally intensive, but of no real value over much more easily implemented models. Seasonal factors can predict daily hospital asthma admissions in London, and there is a little evidence that additional weather and air quality information would add to forecast accuracy.
Fulltext Clinical outcomes of theophylline use as add-on therapy in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: A propensity score matching analysis

Wilairat P, Kengkla K, Thayawiwat C, Phlaisaithong P, Somboonmee S, Saokaew S

Chron Respir Dis, 2018 12 19;16:1479973118815694.
PMID: 30558448 DOI: 10.1177/1479973118815694

To examine clinical outcomes of theophylline use in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) receiving inhaled corticosteroids (ICS) and long-acting beta-2 agonists (LABA). Electronic data from five hospitals located in Northern Thailand between January 2011 and December 2015 were retrospectively collected. Propensity score (PS) matching (2:1 ratio) technique was used to minimize confounding factors. The primary outcome was overall exacerbations. Secondary outcomes were exacerbation not leading to hospital admission, hospitalization for exacerbation, hospitalization for pneumonia, and all-cause hospitalizations. Cox's proportional hazards models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). After PS matching, of 711 patients with COPD (mean age: 70.1 years; 74.4% male; 60.8% severe airflow obstruction), 474 theophylline users and 237 non-theophylline users were included. Mean follow-up time was 2.26 years. Theophylline significantly increased the risk of overall exacerbation (aHR: 1.48, 95% CI: 1.11-1.96; p = 0.008) and exacerbation not leading to hospital admission (aHR: 1.47, 95% CI: 1.06-2.03; p = 0.020). Theophylline use did not significantly increase the risk of hospitalization for exacerbation (aHR: 1.11, 95% CI: 0.79-1.58; p = 0.548), hospitalization for pneumonia (aHR: 1.28, 95% CI: 0.89-1.84; p = 0.185), and all-cause hospitalizations (aHR: 1.03, 95% CI: 0.80-1.33; p = 0.795). Theophylline use as add-on therapy to ICS and LABA might be associated with an increased risk for overall exacerbation in patients with COPD. A large-scale prospective study of theophylline use investigating both safety and efficacy is warranted.
Fulltext Prevalence and associated factors of dysglycemia among patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Zulkifli KK, Mohamed Shah FZ, Ismail AI, Abdul Rahman TH, Ghani RA

Chron Respir Dis, 2021;18:14799731211056348.
PMID: 34797178 DOI: 10.1177/14799731211056348

OBJECTIVES: Dysglycemia is known to be a common comorbidity of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). However, undiagnosed dysglycemia and the associated factors remain under-reported. This study aimed to determine the prevalence and the associated factors of dysglycemia among COPD patients.
METHODS: This was a cross-sectional, single-center study involving adults with established COPD (n = 186) divided into those with or without hospital admissions for acute exacerbation. Oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) was performed in patients with no known history of dysglycemia.
RESULTS: There were 16 patients who had overt diabetes, and 32 had prediabetes following the OGTT. Forty percent had histories of hospital admissions for COPD exacerbations. Both groups demonstrated similar 2-h post prandial glucose, glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) and fasting blood glucose. The incidences of newly diagnosed dysglycemia were higher in both groups (40.8% vs 34.6%, p = 0.57). Cumulative days of admission (≥6 days/year) and weight (≥65 kg) were identified as predictors for dysglycemia within the study population.
DISCUSSION: This study demonstrated a high number of overt and newly diagnosed dysglycemia among COPD patients who had no previous history of abnormal glucose. Recent acute exacerbations of COPD could have a negative impact on glycemia, although the results did not attain statistical significance. However, there is a need for adequate screening for dysglycemia, particularly among those with frequent acute exacerbations of their condition.

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