What is the likelihood that each of the 37 developing countries with populations of 15 million or more in 1990 will reach replacement fertility by the year 2015? These countries have a combined population of 3.9 billion, 91 percent of the population of all developing countries. For this article, a composite index was used as the basis for predicting future levels of total fertility. The index was constructed from socioeconomic variables (life expectancy at birth, infant mortality rates, percent adult literacy, ratio of children enrolled in primary or secondary school, percent of the labor force in nonagricultural occupations, gross national product per capita, and percent of the population living in urban areas), total fertility rates for the years 1985-90, total fertility rate decline from 1960-65 to 1985-90, family planning program effort scores in 1989, and the level of contraceptive prevalence in 1990. Eight countries are classified as certain to reach replacement fertility by 2015, and an additional thirteen probably will also. Five countries are classified as possibly reaching replacement fertility, and eleven as unlikely to do so.
Data from the 1984 Malaysian Population and Family Survey were matched with birth registration records for 1985-87 to determine the accuracy of statements regarding desired family size that were reported in a household survey in predicting subsequent reproductive behavior. The findings of this study were that stated fertility intention provides fairly accurate forecasts of fertility behavior in the subsequent period. In other words, whether a woman has another child is predicted closely by whether she wanted an additional child. Informational, educational, and motivational activities of family planning programs would, therefore, have greater success in reducing family size if fertility intentions were taken into account.
This study uses data from the Second Malaysian Family Life Survey, conducted in 1988, to examine parents' preferences for the sex of their children within each of Malaysia's three ethnic groups. While Malay and Indian parents do not show a consistent sex preference, Chinese parents prefer to have all sons, or a combination of sons and daughters, with more sons than daughters, or at least an equal number of them. Son preference among the Chinese does not seem to be a constraint to fertility decline among that population. Since 1970, Chinese fertility has dropped rapidly; at the same time, Chinese son preference has become more pronounced. Evidence indicates that further reductions in Chinese fertility, through the reduction in sex preference, would be small.
This report examines Malaysian women's perceptions of the contraceptive effect of breastfeeding, the determinants of their perceptions, and any effect these perceptions might have on nursing duration and contraceptive use. The report also considers whether women are consciously replacing breastfeeding with modern contraceptive methods. Data from the 1976 Malaysian Family Life Survey are analyzed, and the author concludes that Malaysian women do perceive that breastfeeding has a contraceptive effect, but that this perception is not universal. Ethnicity and desire for a particular family size are the most significant determinants of this perception. Finally, Malaysian women's recognition of the contraceptive effect of nursing does not influence either the duration of their breastfeeding or their adoption of contraception. Malaysian women may not be abandoning breastfeeding to adopt contraception. More probably, breastfeeding declines and contraceptive prevalence increases with modernization.
Analyses previously reported, based on data from the World Fertility Survey (WFS), are replicated here with data from the Malaysian Family Life Survey. Comparison of results, when data limitations inherent in the World Fertility Surveys are reproduced or relaxed, suggests that these limitations cause little distortion, and thus bolsters confidence in the validity of results based on WFS data in which these limitations are inescapable. Generalizations based on the present investigation and on the body of previous work that it tends to validate are presented. Most significantly, these include the greater importance of both breastfeeding and birth spacing under generally unfavorable conditions, the variability of durations to which some benefit of continued breastfeeding persists, and the observation that the great majority of birth-spacing effects operate through some mechanism other than the association of breastfeeding with birth interval lengths.
PIP: Analyses previously reported, based on data from the World Fertility Survey (WFS) are replicated with data from the Malaysian Family Life Survey, based on a stratified probability sample for 1,262 ever-married women 50 years of age in Peninsular Malaysia. Comparison of the results, when data limitations inherent in the WFS are reproduced or relaxed, suggests that these limitations cause little distortion, and thus bolsters confidence in the validity of results based on WFS data in which these limitations are inescapable. Generalizations based on the present investigation and on the body of previous work that it tends to validate are presented. The greater importance of both breastfeeding and birth spacing under generally unfavorable conditions becomes clear. The relationship between breastfeeding and survival for all births, as well as for the last 2 births, emphasized in this model, has a logit coefficint significant at the .01 level for the 1st month of life as well as the period from birth to 1 year. The durations to which some benefit of continued breastfeeding persists, are variable. In countries where the situation generally is more favorable to child survival, as indicated by rates of infant mortality, breastfeeding's positive effects on child survival are less significant. Breastfeeding promotion and continuation should be the goal especially for programs operating among very poor groups. The great majority of birth spacing effects operate through some mechanism other than the association of breastfeeding with birth interval lengths, as indicated by the fact that significant survival advantages are often associated with birth spacing after controlling for breastfeeding
PIP: While Malaysia's National Family Planning Board is primarily responsible for family planning activities, several organizations and ministries, both governmental and voluntary, participate in various service programs. Current population policy attempts to go beyond family planning. Population education, treatment of infertility, and cancer screening are offered as well as family planning, to make the program more useful to greater numbers of people. The government also wishes to improve the status of women thereby giving them alternative choices of lifestyle. Rural women are reached through the Ministry of Agriculture's community development program. While the National Family Planning Board receives only 0.12% of the national budget, this figure is not expected to increase. Tables giving vital rates show that population fell below the 30 per 1000 mark for the first time in 1977. A higher rate of fertility decline has taken place between 1967 - 1977 than occurred from 1957 - 1967. Current demographic objectives are to reduce crude birthrate to 28.2 per 1000 by 1980. This goal would require 817,963 new acceptors. While the pill accounts for 80% of acceptor's choice, the proportion using condoms has increased from 1.4% during 1969 - 1970 to 11.4% in 1979. Despite reported side effects with the pill and the illegality of induced abortions, virtually all acceptors are well satisfied with the program in its current form.
The estimation of fecundability from survey data is plagued by methodological problems such as misreporting of dates of birth and marriage and the occurrence of premarital exposure to the risk of conception. Nevertheless, estimates of fecundability from World Fertility Survey data for women married in recent years appear to be plausible for most of the surveys analyzed here and are quite consistent with estimates reported in earlier studies. The estimates presented in this article are all derived from the first interval, the interval between marriage or consensual union and the first live birth conception.
PIP: The estimation of fecundability from survey data is plagued by methodological problems such as misreporting of dates of birth and marriage and the occurrence of premarital exposure to the risk of conception. The availability of data collected with a standard interview schedule from over 40 countries in the World Fertility Survey (WFS) is an invaluable resource for assessing the potential utility of measures of fecundability derived from single-round surveys as well as for comparing estimates across countries and regions of the world. In this article, data are used from 5 WFSs in Latin America (Colombia, Costa Rica, Panama, Mexico and Paraguay) and 3 in Asia (Korea, Malaysia and Sri Lanka) to determine the general usefulness of single-round survey data for the estimation of fecundability from survey data, given the limited information on contraceptive use available from many surveys and the data quality problems associated with reports of dates of marriage and dates of birth. Explored in the process are several different procedures for estimation and variations in estimates of fecundability by country, time period, and women's age. For most of this analysis, the median waiting time to conception in the absence of contraception is used as a measure of fecundability. All of the estimates presented are derived from the 1st birth interval. The estimates are based on data collected in both the birth and the marriage histories in the WFS individual interviews. The 8 surveys chosen for this analysis are characterized by relatively complete reporting of dates of birth and marriage. The primary conclusion of this exercise is that reasonable estimates of fecundability can be derived from WFS data only if one is careful to avoid numerous methodological pitfalls. The most plausible estimates appear to be for women married in the period from about 2 to 10 years before the survey. The average waiting times to 1st conception range from about 4 to 7 months; the corresponding monthly probabilities of conception lie between 0.17 and 0.26. The effect of age at marriage on fecundability is most apparent for ages below 16; differences between women married at ages 16-17 and at ages 18 and above are more modest. Suggestions for improvement of the estimation of fecundability by including a number of questions in survey questionnaires are presented.
Recent research has shown that children born before and after short birth intervals run a considerably greater risk of dying in infancy or childhood than do others. This report investigates which women have short interbirth intervals, under what circumstances, and for what reasons. The analysis uses data from the Malaysian Family Life Survey to examine influences on the two main behaviors--breastfeeding and contraceptive use--that affect birth interval length, and assesses the the impact of these same variables on the probability of having a birth interval of less than 15 months. The analysis shows that many of the independent variables affect breastfeeding and contraceptive use in opposite directions, with no significant net effect on the likelihood of a short interval. For example, a woman's education is negatively related to the probability that she breastfeeds, positively related to the probability that she uses contraceptives, and has no significant effect on the likelihood that the interpregnancy interval is less than 15 months. Having a family planning clinic nearby is associated with less breastfeeding, offsetting whatever positive effects family planning clinics have on contraceptive use in terms of the percentage of birth intervals that are so short as to be detrimental to infant and child health. Hence, factors that increase contraceptive use do not necessarily reduce the incidence of short interbirth intervals, because they are also associated with reduced breastfeeding. We simulate the proportion of intervals that would be short for alternative combinations of breastfeeding and contraceptive use in the population and show that over the period covered by the data (1961-75), breastfeeding had a considerably greater effect on preventing short interbirth intervals than did contraceptive use.
Which factors have the greater influence on family planning performance: fixed background variables such as racial composition, urbanization, and mortality, which are affected by level of development, or program inputs such as assignment of personnel and location of clinics, which are subject to manipulation by administrators? An analysis of differences in family planning acceptance among 70 districts of Malaysia shows that two main program-manipulable variables--level of personnel deployment and accessibility of clinics--have the largest direct effect upon acceptance levels. Variations in background factors explain a smaller proportion.
PIP: The application to the Malaysian family planning program of a conceptual model in which background factors, affected by the level of development, are distinguished from program input variables, subject to program manipulation, is considered in an effort to examine reasons for variations in program performance. Focus is particularly on the inputs of workers, who provide services and distribute supplies, and clinic facilities, through which services and supplies are made available. The questions asked concerned how their availability and use are affected by background factors, which themselves reflect to some extent the population's readiness to accept family planning. Distinguishing the program-manipulable factors from the background factors involved determination of the impact of both groups of variables, separately and together on levels of program acceptance, using appropriate bivariate and multivariate techniques. The evidence shows that in addition to background factors, over which program administrators can exercise no direct influence, there is a major contribution made to program acceptance through program factors over which the planner and administrator do have control. The 2 program variables contributed more in explaining performance levels than all 5 selected background variables combined, and the relative contribution of these program factors has increased over time. The key finding emerging from the different analyses is that program manipulable inputs are the dominant direct determinants of subsequent levels of family planning acceptance in Malayasia. Clearly, higher levels of development, as reflected in the measures of background variables, have facilitated acceptance, and background variables contributed significantly. Yet, whatever the level of development, the extent of deployment of program resources does significantly influence the level of program performance.
PIP: Observations are made related to the review of family planning activities in East Asia in 1973. The number of new acceptors for the region increased from 2.7 million in 1972 to 3.4 million in 1973. The leaders were Indonesia, which almost doubled its achievement of calendar year 1972, the Philippines, and Korea. In Thailand, the number of new acceptors dropped by about 10%. South Vietnam is the only country in the region without an official policy. Most couples still think that the ideal number of children is 4, with at least 2 sons. Some religious opposition does exist, particularly with reference to sterlization and abortion. More attention is being paid to women in their 20s. Sterilization and condoms are becoming more popular. Korea reports a sharp increase in vasectomies. Better methods and continuation rates should be stressed. In Taiwan a couple who start with 1 method and continue to practice some method lower their reproduction rate by 80%. More responsibility is being delegated to nurses and midwives, but too slowly. In Indonesia, the number of field workers rose from 3774 in 1972 to 6275 in 1973. The Philippines and Thailand are experimenting to see what kind of workers get best results and under what kind of salary and incentive arrangements. In-service training tends to be neglected, but preservice training is improving. Costs, in general, have risen, though in Korea the cost per acceptor has dropped from US$8.00 to US$7.80. Korea and Taiwan have reduced their annual population growth rates by more than 1/3 in 10 years, from 30 to 19-20 per 1000 each. Singapore's rate is 17 and Hong Kong's 14 (exclusive of inmigration). The number of couples currently practicing contraception in Singapore is 71%. Target systems assigning quotas to clinics are generally used except in Thailand and Malaysia, where programs emphasize maternal and child health, rather than population planning. Most programs require about 10 years to get the annual growth rate down to 2% by voluntary family planning. To get it down to 1.5% will probably take another 10 years.
The objectives of this article are (1) review the contribution of traditional midwives to family planning communication in several Asian countries; (2) organize knowledge gathered from various studies into general guidelines for the most effective use of traditional midwives in family planning programs; and (3) present hypotheses for future research. In certain countries where pilot projects have tested the potential performance of traditional midwives in family planning programs, results have been encouraging. In other nations, more research is needed to determine the contribution traditional midwives can make to the family planning program.
PIP: Traditional midwives are found in almost every village and in many urban neighborhoods in the developing world, delivering the majority of births in these areas. Several Asian nations have begun to recognize the potential contribution of traditional midwives to modern family planning and health programs. A total of about 17,000 traditional midwives have been trained as family planning recruiters in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand. Because traditional midwives deliver a large number of births in Asian nations, the potential is great for them to reach large numbers of women regarding family planning -- particularly poor, illiterate women. There is much to be learned from the traditional health system and governmental health and family planning programs should join hands with these older systems.
PIP: 292 village midwives (bidans) in Malaysia were interviewed between January 1969 and December 1970 as they came to report for training. The mean age was 47.3, 80% had had no schooling, 43% had practiced less than 10 years (32% between 10 and 20 years, 21% between 20 and 30 years, and 4% more than 30 years). On the average each bidan reported attending 3 deliveries during the past month and 26 during the past year. The average charge per delivery was about U.S.$2.00. Of 267 who responded to a question concerning other services they provided, 50% said they performed massages, 30% performed massages combined with other services, 12% said they did not do anything other than midwifery and 7% prescribed herbs and performed abortions. 67% said they first had contact with the mother during the seventh to ninth month of pregnancy, 42% between the fourth and sixth month, and 7% at or before the third month. 40% said the postpartum care lasted less than 1 week, 40% from 1-2 weeks and 19% between 2-7 weeks. Only 2 out of 198 bidans disapproved of family planning services. 99% were not worried that this would affect their job in conducting deliveries. 62% had been approached by women about family planning information services during the last 3 months. 95% thought they could help to promote the government's program by recruiting patients and distributing contraceptives. Since oral contraceptives are the most frequently used contraceptive in Malaysia, bidans could resupply the women with the pill. They could play an important role in promoting contraceptive continuation in rural areas by providing women with a continuous motivation through their constant contact. The success of using bidans in rural family planning services will greatly depend on their supervision. They can be paid with a flat salary-type payment, with an incentive scheme alone, or a combination of the two.