Displaying publications 1 - 20 of 29 in total

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  1. Woon YL, Lee YL, Chong YM, Ayub NA, Krishnabahawan SL, Lau JFW, et al.
    Lancet Reg Health West Pac, 2021 Apr;9:100123.
    PMID: 33778796 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2021.100123
    Background: Asymptomatic severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections are well documented. Healthcare workers (HCW) are at increased risk of infection due to occupational exposure to infected patients. We aim to determine the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies among HCW who did not come to medical attention.

    Methods: We prospectively recruited 400 HCW from the National Public Health Laboratory and two COVID-19 designated public hospitals in Klang Valley, Malaysia between 13/4/2020 and 12/5/2020. Quota sampling was used to ensure representativeness of HCW involved in direct and indirect patient care. All participants answered a self-administered questionnaire and blood samples were taken to test for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies by surrogate virus neutralization test.

    Findings: The study population comprised 154 (38.5%) nurses, 103 (25.8%) medical doctors, 47 (11.8%) laboratory technologists and others (23.9%). A majority (68.9%) reported exposure to SARS-CoV-2 in the past month within their respective workplaces. Adherence to personal protection equipment (PPE) guidelines and hand hygiene were good, ranging from 91-100% compliance. None (95% CI: 0, 0.0095) of the participants had SARS-CoV-2 antibodies detected, despite 182 (45.5%) reporting some symptoms one month prior to study recruitment. One hundred and fifteen (29%) of participants claimed to have had contact with known COVID-19 persons outside of their workplace.

    Interpretation: Zero seroprevalence among HCW suggests a low incidence of undiagnosed COVID-19 infection in our healthcare setting during the first local wave of SARS-CoV-2 infection. The occupational risk of SARS-CoV-2 transmission within healthcare facilities can be prevented by adherence to infection control measures and appropriate use of PPE.

  2. Yoon SE, Song Y, Kim SJ, Yoon DH, Chen TY, Koh Y, et al.
    Lancet Reg Health West Pac, 2021 May;10:100126.
    PMID: 34327343 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2021.100126
    Background: Peripheral T-cell lymphomas (PTCLs) are uncommon and their frequency is regionally heterogeneous. Several studies have been conducted to evaluate the clinical features and treatment outcomes of this disease entity, but the majority of these were conducted in limited areas, making it difficult to comprehensively analyze their relative frequency and clinical features. Furthermore, no consensus treatment for PTCLs has been established. Therefore, we conducted an Asia-specific study to understand the relative frequency of PTCLs and assess treatments and their outcomes in Asian patients.

    Methods: We performed a multinational, multicenter, prospective registry of adult patients with PTCLs that was named as the International Cooperative non-Hodgkin T-cell lymphoma prospective registry study where thirty-two institutes from six Asian countries and territories (Korea, China, Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia) participated.

    Findings: A total of 486 patients were registered between April 2016 and February 2019, and more than a half of patients (57%) had stage III or IV. Extranodal natural killer (NK)/T- cell lymphoma was the most common subtype (n = 139,28.6%), followed by angioimmunoblastic T-cell lymphoma (AITL, n = 120,24.7%), PTCL-not otherwise specified (PTCL-NOS, n = 101,20.8%), ALK-positive anaplastic large cell lymphoma (ALCL, n = 34,6.9%), and ALK-negative ALCL (n = 30,6.2%). The median progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were 21.1 months (95% CI,10.6-31.6) and 83.6 months (95% CI, 56.7-110.5), respectively. Upfront use of combined treatment with chemotherapy and radiotherapy showed better PFS than chemotherapy alone in localized ENKTL whereas consolidation with upfront autologous stem cell transplantation (SCT) provided longer PFS in advance stage ENKTL. In patients with PTCLs other than ENKTL, anthracycline-containing chemotherapies were widely used, but the outcome of those regimens was not satisfactory, and upfront autologous SCT was not significantly associated with survival benefit, either. The treatment outcome of salvage chemotherapy was disappointing, and none of the salvage strategies showed superiority to one another.

    Interpretation: This multinational, multicenter study identified the relative frequency of each subtype of PTCLs across Asian countries, and the survival outcomes according to the therapeutic strategies currently used.

    Funding: Samsung Biomedical Research Institute.

  3. Sim BLH, Chidambaram SK, Wong XC, Pathmanathan MD, Peariasamy KM, Hor CP, et al.
    Lancet Reg Health West Pac, 2020 Nov;4:100055.
    PMID: 33521741 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2020.100055
    Background: COVID-19 emerged as a major public health outbreak in late 2019. Malaysia reported its first imported case on 25th January 2020, and adopted a policy of extensive contact tracing and hospitalising of all cases. We describe the clinical characteristics of COVID-19 cases nationwide and determine the risk factors associated with disease severity.

    Method: Clinical records of all RT-PCR confirmed COVID-19 cases aged ≥12 years admitted to 18 designated hospitals in Malaysia between 1st February and 30th May 2020 with complete outcomes were retrieved. Epidemiological history, co-morbidities, clinical features, investigations, management and complications were captured using REDCap database. Variables were compared between mild and severe diseases. Univariate and multivariate regression were used to identify determinants for disease severity.

    Findings: The sample comprised of 5889 cases (median age 34 years, male 71.7%). Majority were mild (92%), and 3.3% required intensive care, with 80% admitted within the first five days. Older age (≥51 years), underlying chronic kidney disease and chronic pulmonary disease, fever, cough, diarrhoea, breathlessness, tachypnoea, abnormal chest radiographs and high serum CRP (≥5 mg/dL) on admission were significant determinants for severity (p<0.05). The case fatality rate was 1.2%, and the three commonest complications were liver injuries (6.7%), kidney injuries (4%), and acute respiratory distress syndrome (2.3%).

    Interpretations: Lower case fatality rate was possibly contributed by young cases with mild diseases and early hospitalisation. Abnormal chest radiographic findings in elderly with tachypnoea require close monitoring in the first five days to detect early deterioration.

  4. Sun X, Li R, Cai Y, Al-Herz A, Lahiri M, Choudhury MR, et al.
    Lancet Reg Health West Pac, 2021 Oct;15:100240.
    PMID: 34528015 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2021.100240
    Background: Clinical remission is an attainable goal for Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA). However, data on RA remission rates from multinational studies in the Asia-Pacific region are limited. We conducted a cross-sectional multicentric study to evaluate the clinical remission status and the related factors in RA patients in the Asia-Pacific region.

    Methods: RA patients receiving standard care were enrolled consecutively from 17 sites in 11 countries from APLAR RA SIG group. Data were collected on-site by rheumatologists with a standardized case-report form. Remission was analyzed by different definitions including disease activity score using 28 joints (DAS28) based on ESR and CRP, clinical disease activity index (CDAI), simplified disease activity index (SDAI), Boolean remission definition, and clinical deep remission (CliDR). Logistic regression was used to determine related factors of remission.

    Findings: A total of 2010 RA patients was included in the study, the overall remission rates were 62•3% (DAS28-CRP), 35•5% (DAS28-ESR), 30•8% (CDAI), 26•5% (SDAI), 24•7% (Boolean), and 17•1% (CliDR), respectively, and varied from countries to countries in the Asia-Pacific region. Biological and targeted synthetic disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (b/tsDMARDs) prescription rate was low (17•9%). Compared to patients in non-remission, patients in remission had higher rates of b/tsDMARDs usage and lower rates of GC usage. The favorable related factors were male sex, younger age, fewer comorbidities, fewer extra-articular manifestations (EAM), and use of b/tsDMARDs, while treatment with GC was negatively related to remission.

    Interpretation: Remission rates were low and varied in the Asia-Pacific region. Treatment with b/tsDMARDs and less GC usage were related to higher remission rate. There is an unmet need for RA remission in the Asia-Pacific region.

  5. Krishnan V, Zaki RA, Nahar AM, Jalaludin MY, Majid HA
    Lancet Reg Health West Pac, 2021 Oct;15:100228.
    PMID: 34528009 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2021.100228
    Introduction: The triple burden of malnutrition characterised by stunting and wasting, overweight/obesity, and anaemia experienced by Malaysians causes severe and long-lasting damage during the period of development and rapid growth, particularly in adolescence. This study aimed to demonstrate the trend of anaemia prevalence and to determine its longitudinal association with nutritional status and lifestyle among Malaysian adolescents.

    Method: The study involved secondary data analysis from the Malaysian Health and Adolescents Longitudinal Research Team (MyHeART) study. A closed cohort secondary data analysis was performed from the dynamic cohort of 528 adolescents (male = 151; female = 377) aged 13 years attending secondary school who were followed up at 15 and 17 years. Anaemia status was determined by haemoglobin level < 12g/dL based on FBC, and iron deficiency anaemia (IDA) was determined when the Mentzer Index < 13. A generalised estimating equation (GEE) was constructed to investigate the longitudinal relationship between nutritional status and lifestyle on anaemia status over five years.

    Results: The trend of anaemia prevalence increased significantly across the age group (7•9%; 95% CI: 2•3-11•1, 13•9%; 95% CI: 10•8-15•7 and 15•8%; 95% CI: 3•8-23•1) at 13, 15 and 17 years, respectively, especially among females. The trend of anaemia prevalence among females, also increased significantly across the age group (11.1%;95% CI:6.7-17.8, 15.7%;95% CI:11.4-21.3, 23.1%;95% CI:16.8-31.0). A similar trend was noted for the prevalence of IDA among those who were anaemic (66•5%; 95% CI: 40•4-85•3, 72•2%;95% CI: 54•8-85•4, 76•3%; 95% CI: 59•2-87•7). A longitudinal analysis using GEE revealed that adolescents who did not meet the Recommended Nutrient Intake (RNI) for total iron intake per day were significantly associated with anaemia (RR=1•517;95% CI: 1•012-2•275; p=0•044) and IDA (RR=1•776;95% CI: 1•225-2•57; p= 0•002).

    Conclusion: The overall trend of anaemia among adolescents is in increasing trend and anaemia is prevalent among female adolescents in this study. It is crucial to understand that the current fortification strategy may need to be revisited, and robust intervention programmes are necessary and should be sex specific.

  6. Sun J, Cheng H, Hassan MRA, Chan HK, Piedagnel JM
    Lancet Reg Health West Pac, 2021 Nov;16:100261.
    PMID: 34590064 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2021.100261
    Background: To discuss a range of strategic options for China to improve the accessibility of direct antiviral agents (DAAs) as the treatment for hepatitis C. Methods: We adopted a narrative review approach for comprehensive comparisons and in-depth analyses of the country context, and barriers of increasing the DAA treatment rate of hepatitis C in Malaysia and China, and how the two countries have been navigating the hepatitis C agenda. Findings: Malaysia adopted a series of successful strategies to scale up the diagnosis of hepatitis C and DAA treatment, which have valuable implications for China. Interpretation: The potential game-changing strategies for China to adapt from Malaysian experiences range from the stepping-up of political commitment and leadership, enhanced market competition, simplified and decentralized treatment at the strengthened primary care level, integrated healthcare services, coordinated government initiatives, to multi-organizational participation and civil society's active role in raising public awareness, and training of non-specialist physicians. Embarking on scale-up of hepatitis C treatment marks another contribution of China to improve the health of not only the Chinese citizens but also mankind, which is an important component for building healthy Chinese and global communities. Funding: No funding supported this study.
  7. Jayaraj VJ, Rampal S, Ng CW, Chong DWQ
    Lancet Reg Health West Pac, 2021 Dec;17:100295.
    PMID: 34704083 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2021.100295
    Background: COVID-19 has rapidly spread across the globe. Critical to the control of COVID-19 is the characterisation of its epidemiology. Despite this, there has been a paucity of evidence from many parts of the world, including Malaysia. We aim to describe the epidemiology of COVID-19 in Malaysia to inform prevention and control policies better.

    Methods: Malaysian COVID-19 data was extracted from 16 March 2020 up to 31 May 2021. We estimated the following epidemiological indicators: 7-day incidence rates, 7-day mortality rates, case fatality rates, test positive ratios, testing rates and the time-varying reproduction number (Rt).

    Findings: Between 16 March 2020 and 31 May 2021, Malaysia has reported 571,901 cases and 2,796 deaths. Malaysia's average 7-day incidence rate was 26•6 reported infections per 100,000 population (95% CI: 17•8, 38•1). The average test positive ratio and testing rate were 4•3% (95% CI: 1•6, 10•2) and 0•8 tests per 1,000 population (95% CI: <0•1, 3•7), respectively. The case fatality rates (CFR) was 0•6% (95% CI: <0•1, 3•7). Among the 2,796 cases who died, 87•3% were ≥ 50 years.

    Interpretation: The public health response was successful in the suppression of COVID-19 transmission or the first half of 2020. However, a state election and outbreaks in institutionalised populations have been the catalyst for more significant community propagation. This rising community transmission has continued in 2021, leading to increased incidence and strained healthcare systems. Calibrating NPI based on epidemiological indicators remain critical for us to live with the virus. (243 words).

    Funding: This study is part of the COVID-19 Epidemiological Analysis and Strategies (CEASe) Project with funding from the Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation (UM.0000245/HGA.GV).

  8. Hughes A, Ragonnet R, Jayasundara P, Ngo HA, de Lara-Tuprio E, Estuar MRJ, et al.
    Lancet Reg Health West Pac, 2022 Dec;29:100563.
    PMID: 35974800 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2022.100563
  9. Lim LL, Lau ESH, Kong APS, Fu AWC, Lau V, Jia W, et al.
    Lancet Reg Health West Pac, 2023 Mar;32:100663.
    PMID: 36785858 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2022.100663
    BACKGROUND: In Asia, diabetes-associated death due to cardiorenal diseases were 2-3 times higher in women than men which might be due to gender disparity in quality of care and health habits.

    METHODS: Adults with type 2 diabetes (T2D) from 11 Asian countries/areas were assessed using the same protocol (2007-2015). We compared treatment target attainment (HbA1c < 7%, blood pressure [BP] < 130/80 mmHg, risk-based LDL-cholesterol, lack of central obesity [waist circumference <90 cm in men or <80 cm in women), use of cardiorenal-protective drugs (renin-angiotensin system [RAS] inhibitors, statins), and self-reported health habits including self-monitoring blood glucose (SMBG) by gender. Analyses were stratified by countries/areas, age of natural menopause (<50 vs. ≥50 years), and comorbidities (atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease [ASCVD], heart failure, kidney impairment [eGFR < 60 mL/min/1.73 m2]).

    FINDINGS: Among 106,376 patients (53.2% men; median (interquartile range) diabetes duration: 6.0 (2.0-12.0) years; mean ± SD HbA1c 8.0 ± 1.9%; 27% insulin-treated), women were older and less likely to receive college education than men (28.9% vs. 48.8%). Women were less likely to smoke/drink alcohol and were physically less active than men. Women had lower BP (<130/80 mmHg: 29.4% vs. 25.7%), less general obesity (54.8% vs. 57.8%) but more central obesity than men (77.5% vs. 57.3%). Women were less likely to have ASCVD (12.8% vs. 17.0%) or heart failure (1.3% vs. 2.3%), but more likely to have kidney impairment (22.3% vs. 17.6%) and any-site cancer than men (2.5% vs. 1.6%). In most countries/areas, more men attained HbA1c <7% and risk-based LDL-cholesterol level than women. After adjusting for potential confounders including countries and centres, men had 1.63 odds ratio (95% CI 1.51, 1.74) of attaining ≥3 treatment targets than women.

    INTERPRETATION: Asian women with T2D had worse quality of care than men especially in middle-income countries/areas, calling for targeted implementation programs to close these care gaps.

    SPONSOR: Asia Diabetes Foundation.

    FUNDING: Nil.

  10. Ho WK, Hassan NT, Yoon SY, Yang X, Lim JMC, Binte Ishak ND, et al.
    Lancet Reg Health West Pac, 2024 Mar;44:101017.
    PMID: 38333895 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2024.101017
    BACKGROUND: Clinical management of Asian BRCA1 and BRCA2 pathogenic variants (PV) carriers remains challenging due to imprecise age-specific breast (BC) and ovarian cancer (OC) risks estimates. We aimed to refine these estimates using six multi-ethnic studies in Asia.

    METHODS: Data were collected on 271 BRCA1 and 301 BRCA2 families from Malaysia and Singapore, ascertained through population/hospital-based case-series (88%) and genetic clinics (12%). Age-specific cancer risks were estimated using a modified segregation analysis method, adjusted for ascertainment.

    FINDINGS: BC and OC relative risks (RRs) varied across age groups for both BRCA1 and BRCA2. The age-specific RR estimates were similar across ethnicities and country of residence. For BRCA1 carriers of Malay, Indian and Chinese ancestry born between 1950 and 1959 in Malaysia, the cumulative risk (95% CI) of BC by age 80 was 40% (36%-44%), 49% (44%-53%) and 55% (51%-60%), respectively. The corresponding estimates for BRCA2 were 29% (26-32%), 36% (33%-40%) and 42% (38%-45%). The corresponding cumulative BC risks for Singapore residents from the same birth cohort, where the underlying population cancer incidences are higher compared to Malaysia, were higher, varying by ancestry group between 57 and 61% for BRCA1, and between 43 and 47% for BRCA2 carriers. The cumulative risk of OC by age 80 was 31% (27-36%) for BRCA1 and 12% (10%-15%) for BRCA2 carriers in Malaysia born between 1950 and 1959; and 42% (34-50%) for BRCA1 and 20% (14-27%) for BRCA2 carriers of the same birth cohort in Singapore. There was evidence of increased BC and OC risks for women from >1960 birth cohorts (p-value = 3.6 × 10-5 for BRCA1 and 0.018 for BRCA2).

    INTERPRETATION: The absolute age-specific cancer risks of Asian carriers vary depending on the underlying population-specific cancer incidences, and hence should be customised to allow for more accurate cancer risk management.

    FUNDING: Wellcome Trust [grant no: v203477/Z/16/Z]; CRUK (PPRPGM-Nov20∖100002).

  11. Ong SK, Abe SK, Thilagaratnam S, Haruyama R, Pathak R, Jayasekara H, et al.
    Lancet Reg Health West Pac, 2023 Oct;39:100860.
    PMID: 37576906 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2023.100860
    About 95% of cervical cancers worldwide are caused by human papillomavirus (HPV). Cervical cancer is preventable and curable if it is detected and treated early. We reviewed the latest national cervical cancer indicators, and barriers to HPV vaccination and cervical cancer screening in 21 Asian National Cancer Centers Alliance (ANCCA) member countries. Half (n = 11, 52%) of the countries have introduced HPV vaccination for girls as part of their national vaccination programme, three countries reported coverage of over 90%. Most ANCCA member countries have cervical cancer screening programmes, only five countries reported screening uptake of over 50%. The barriers to HPV vaccination coverage and cervical cancer screening participation have been identified. Ensuring health service accessibility and affordability for women, addressing sociocultural barriers, and strengthening the healthcare system and continuum of care are essential to increase HPV vaccination and cervical cancer screening coverage.
  12. Yu JY, Heo S, Xie F, Liu N, Yoon SY, Chang HS, et al.
    Lancet Reg Health West Pac, 2023 May;34:100733.
    PMID: 37283981 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2023.100733
    BACKGROUND: Field triage is critical in injury patients as the appropriate transport of patients to trauma centers is directly associated with clinical outcomes. Several prehospital triage scores have been developed in Western and European cohorts; however, their validity and applicability in Asia remains unclear. Therefore, we aimed to develop and validate an interpretable field triage scoring systems based on a multinational trauma registry in Asia.

    METHODS: This retrospective and multinational cohort study included all adult transferred injury patients from Korea, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Taiwan between 2016 and 2018. The outcome of interest was a death in the emergency department (ED) after the patients' ED visit. Using these results, we developed the interpretable field triage score with the Korea registry using an interpretable machine learning framework and validated the score externally. The performance of each country's score was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Furthermore, a website for real-world application was developed using R Shiny.

    FINDINGS: The study population included 26,294, 9404, 673 and 826 transferred injury patients between 2016 and 2018 from Korea, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Taiwan, respectively. The corresponding rates of a death in the ED were 0.30%, 0.60%, 4.0%, and 4.6% respectively. Age and vital sign were found to be the significant variables for predicting mortality. External validation showed the accuracy of the model with an AUROC of 0.756-0.850.

    INTERPRETATION: The Grade for Interpretable Field Triage (GIFT) score is an interpretable and practical tool to predict mortality in field triage for trauma.

    FUNDING: This research was supported by a grant of the Korea Health Technology R&D Project through the Korea Health Industry Development Institute (KHIDI), funded by the Ministry of Health & Welfare, Republic of Korea (Grant Number: HI19C1328).

  13. Jin S, Lin L, Larson HJ, Cook AR
    Lancet Reg Health West Pac, 2024 Feb;43:100840.
    PMID: 38371748 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2023.100840
    BACKGROUND: COVID-19 vaccines effectively reduced the severity of the pandemic, but the mass rollout was challenged by vaccine hesitancy, which was related to heterogenous factors-such as religiosity, mistrust, and a lack of scientific knowledge-around the globe. Distinguishing these potential influencers and quantifying their impacts would help authorities to tailor strategies that boost vaccine confidence and acceptance.

    METHODS: We conducted a large-scale, data-driven analysis on vaccine acceptance and actual uptake in eight Western Pacific countries before (2021) and after (2022) the mass COVID-19 vaccine rollouts. We compared vaccine acceptance or uptake rates between different subpopulations using Bootstrap methods and further constructed a logistic model to investigate the relationship between vaccine endorsement and diverse socio-demographic or trust-related determinants at these two time points.

    FINDINGS: Substantial between-country differences in vaccine acceptance and uptake were observed across the Western Pacific, with Mongolia, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, and Malaysia being more pro-vaccine than the other three countries (Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines). Actual vaccination rates in 2022 were all higher than predicted from the 2021 responses. Influencers for vaccine endorsement were country-specific, but generally, groups susceptible to vaccine hesitancy included females, the less-educated, and those distrusting vaccines or health care providers.

    INTERPRETATION: Our findings demonstrate the successful translation of vaccine intent to actual uptake with the deployment of COVID-19 vaccination in the Western Pacific. Increasing vaccine confidence and supressing dissemination of misinformation may play an essential role in reducing vaccine hesitancy and ramping up immunisation.

    FUNDING: AIR@InnoHK.

  14. Luo Y, Chang Y, Zhao Z, Xia J, Xu C, Bee YM, et al.
    Lancet Reg Health West Pac, 2023 Jun;35:100746.
    PMID: 37424694 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2023.100746
    BACKGROUND: Technological advances make it possible to use device-supported, automated algorithms to aid basal insulin (BI) dosing titration in patients with type 2 diabetes.

    METHODS: A systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials were performed to evaluate the efficacy, safety, and quality of life of automated BI titration versus conventional care. The literature in Medline, Embase, Web of Science, and the Cochrane databases from January 2000 to February 2022 were searched to identify relevant studies. Risk ratios (RRs), mean differences (MDs), and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using random-effect meta-analyses. Certainty of evidence was assessed using the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluations (GRADE) approach.

    FINDINGS: Six of the 7 eligible studies (889 patients) were included in meta-analyses. Low- to moderate-quality evidence suggests that patients who use automated BI titration versus conventional care may have a higher probability of reaching a target of HbA1c <7.0% (RR, 1.82 [95% CI, 1.16-2.86]); and a lower level of HbA1c (MD, -0.25% [95% CI, -0.43 to -0.06%]). No statistically significant differences were detected between the two groups in fasting glucose results, incidences of hypoglycemia, severe or nocturnal hypoglycemia, and quality of life, with low to very low certainty for all the evidence.

    INTERPRETATION: Automated BI titration is associated with small benefits in reducing HbA1c without increasing the risk of hypoglycemia. Future studies should explore patient attitudes and the cost-effectiveness of this approach.

    FUNDING: Sponsored by the Chinese Geriatric Endocrine Society.

  15. Kasim SS, Ibrahim N, Malek S, Ibrahim KS, Aziz MF, Song C, et al.
    Lancet Reg Health West Pac, 2023 Jun;35:100742.
    PMID: 37424687 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2023.100742
    BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular risk prediction models incorporate myriad CVD risk factors. Current prediction models are developed from non-Asian populations, and their utility in other parts of the world is unknown. We validated and compared the performance of CVD risk prediction models in an Asian population.

    METHODS: Four validation groups were extracted from a longitudinal community-based study dataset of 12,573 participants aged ≥18 years to validate the Framingham Risk Score (FRS), Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation 2 (SCORE2), Revised Pooled Cohort Equations (RPCE), and World Health Organization cardiovascular disease (WHO CVD) models. Two measures of validation are examined: discrimination and calibration. Outcome of interest was 10-year risk of CVD events (fatal and non-fatal). SCORE2 and RPCE performances were compared to SCORE and PCE, respectively.

    FINDINGS: FRS (AUC = 0.750) and RPCE (AUC = 0.752) showed good discrimination in CVD risk prediction. Although FRS and RPCE have poor calibration, FRS demonstrates smaller discordance for FRS vs. RPCE (298% vs. 733% in men, 146% vs. 391% in women). Other models had reasonable discrimination (AUC = 0.706-0.732). Only SCORE2-Low, -Moderate and -High (aged <50) had good calibration (X2 goodness-of-fit, P-value = 0.514, 0.189, 0.129, respectively). SCORE2 and RPCE showed improvements compared to SCORE (AUC = 0.755 vs. 0.747, P-value <0.001) and PCE (AUC = 0.752 vs. 0.546, P-value <0.001), respectively. Almost all risk models overestimated 10-year CVD risk by 3%-1430%.

    INTERPRETATION: In Malaysians, RPCE are evaluated be the most clinically useful to predict CVD risk. Additionally, SCORE2 and RPCE outperformed SCORE and PCE, respectively.

    FUNDING: This work was supported by the Malaysian Ministry of Science, Technology, and Innovation (MOSTI) (Grant No: TDF03211036).

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