Since December 2019, a novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has spread all over the world, causing unpredictable economic losses and public fear. Although vaccines against this virus have been developed and administered for months, many countries still suffer from secondary COVID-19 infections, including the United Kingdom, France, and Malaysia. Observations of COVID-19 infections in the United Kingdom and France and their governance measures showed a certain number of similarities. A further investigation of these countries' COVID-19 transmission patterns suggested that when a turning point appeared, the values of their stringency indices per population density (PSI) were nearly proportional to their absolute infection rate (AIR). To justify our assumptions, we developed a mathematical model named VSHR to predict the COVID-19 turning point for Malaysia. VSHR was first trained on 30-day infection records prior to the United Kingdom, Germany, France, and Belgium's known turning points. It was then transferred to Malaysian COVID-19 data to predict this nation's turning point. Given the estimated AIR parameter values in 5 days, we were now able to locate the turning point's appearance on June 2nd, 2021. VSHR offered two improvements: (1) gathered countries into groups based on their SI patterns and (2) generated a model to identify the turning point for a target country within 5 days with 90% CI. Our research on COVID-19's turning point for a country is beneficial for governments and clinical systems against future COVID-19 infections.
In recent decades major declines in urban house sparrow (Passer domesticus) populations have been observed in north-western European cities, whereas suburban and rural house sparrow populations have remained relatively stable or are recovering from previous declines. Differential exposure to avian pathogens known to cause epidemics in house sparrows may in part explain this spatial pattern of declines. Here we investigate the potential effect of urbanization on the development of a bacterial pathogen reservoir in free-ranging house sparrows. This was achieved by comparing the prevalence of Salmonella enterica subspecies enterica serotype Typhimurium in 364 apparently healthy house sparrows captured in urban, suburban and rural regions across Flanders, Belgium between September 2013 and March 2014. In addition 12 dead birds, received from bird rescue centers, were necropsied. The apparent absence of Salmonella Typhimurium in fecal samples of healthy birds, and the identification of only one house sparrow seropositive for Salmonella spp., suggests that during the winter of 2013-2014 these birds did not represent any considerable Salmonella Typhimurium reservoir in Belgium and thus may be considered naïve hosts, susceptible to clinical infection. This susceptibility is demonstrated by the isolation of two different Salmonella Typhimurium strains from two of the deceased house sparrows: one DT99, typically associated with disease in pigeons, and one DT195, previously associated with a passerine decline. The apparent absence (prevalence: <1.3%) of a reservoir in healthy house sparrows and the association of infection with clinical disease suggests that the impact of Salmonella Typhimurium on house sparrows is largely driven by the risk of exogenous exposure to pathogenic Salmonella Typhimurium strains. However, no inference could be made on a causal relationship between Salmonella infection and the observed house sparrow population declines.