Traffic noise prediction model using GIS and ensemble machine learning: a case study at Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM) Campus

This study represents a pioneering effort to integrate geographic information systems (GIS) and ensemble machine learning methods to predict noise levels on a university campus. Three ensemble models including random forest (RF), gradient boosting (GB), and extreme gradient boosting (XGB) were developed to predict traffic noise based on data collected over a 4-week period at the Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM) campus. Noise measurements were obtained during peak morning hours (7:30 to 9:30 a.m.) on weekdays within the UTM campus in Johor. Additional predictor variables, including data from the digital elevation model (DEM) and land use, were incorporated to capture the complex nonlinear relationships influencing noise levels. The models were optimized through hyperparameter tuning, resulting in high precision, as evidenced by performance metrics such as the coefficient of determination (R2), mean absolute error (MAE), and mean squared error (MSE). The XGB model emerged as the most accurate, with R2 = 0.96, MAE = 0.9, and MSE = 0.3. Noise maps generated using the inverse distance weighting (IDW) interpolation technique highlighted the spatial distribution of noise levels, classified into five classes considering WHO standards. The findings identified distance from roads, the number of light vehicles, and proximity to green areas as the most significant predictors. However, challenges remain in accurately predicting noise levels associated with other predictors. The outcomes of the study indicate the superior performance of the XGB model compared to the GB and RF models. The study recommends several measures to manage and control noise pollution on the UTM campus, including raising awareness, regulating and enforcing vehicle speed limits, reevaluating land use, installing sound insulation systems, and planting trees and vegetation buffer zones around and within educational buildings.