Evaluation of the malaria elimination policy in Brazil: a systematic review and epidemiological analysis study

After a centenary fight against malaria, Brazil has seen an opportunity for change with the proposal of the malaria elimination policy set by the Brazilian government, in line with malaria elimination policies in other Latin American countries. Brazilian malaria experts regard eliminating malaria by 2030 to be within reach. Herein we evaluated the likelihood that malaria elimination can be accomplished in Brazil through systematic review of the literature on malaria elimination in Brazil and epidemiological analysis. Fifty-two articles referring to malaria eradication/elimination in Brazil were analyzed to identify challenges and technological breakthroughs for controlling malaria. Monthly deaths (1979-2016) and monthly severe malaria cases (1998-2018) were analyzed according to age groups, geographic region and parasite species. As a result, we observed that the declining malaria burden was mostly attributable to a decline in Plasmodium falciparum-malaria. At the same time, the proportional increase of Plasmodium vivax-malaria in comparison with P. falciparum-malaria was notable. This niche replacement mechanism was discussed in the reviewed literature. In addition, the challenges to P. vivax-malaria elimination outnumbered the available technological breakthroughs. Although accumulated and basic information exists on mosquito vector biology, the lack of specific knowledge about mosquito vector taxonomy and ecology may hamper current attempts at stopping malaria in the country. An impressive reduction in malaria hospitalizations and mortality was seen in Brazil in the past 3 decades. Eliminating malaria deaths in children less than 5 years and P. falciparum severe cases may be achievable goals under the current malaria policy until 2030. However, eliminating P. vivax malaria transmission and morbidity seems unattainable with the available tools. Therefore, complete malaria elimination in Brazil in the near future is unlikely.