COVID-19 pandemic has created an extreme pressure on the global healthcare services. Fast, reliable, and early clinical assessment of the severity of the disease can help in allocating and prioritizing resources to reduce mortality. In order to study the important blood biomarkers for predicting disease mortality, a retrospective study was conducted on a dataset made public by Yan et al. in [1] of 375 COVID-19 positive patients admitted to Tongji Hospital (China) from January 10 to February 18, 2020. Demographic and clinical characteristics and patient outcomes were investigated using machine learning tools to identify key biomarkers to predict the mortality of individual patient. A nomogram was developed for predicting the mortality risk among COVID-19 patients. Lactate dehydrogenase, neutrophils (%), lymphocyte (%), high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, and age (LNLCA)-acquired at hospital admission-were identified as key predictors of death by multi-tree XGBoost model. The area under curve (AUC) of the nomogram for the derivation and validation cohort were 0.961 and 0.991, respectively. An integrated score (LNLCA) was calculated with the corresponding death probability. COVID-19 patients were divided into three subgroups: low-, moderate-, and high-risk groups using LNLCA cutoff values of 10.4 and 12.65 with the death probability less than 5%, 5-50%, and above 50%, respectively. The prognostic model, nomogram, and LNLCA score can help in early detection of high mortality risk of COVID-19 patients, which will help doctors to improve the management of patient stratification.
Sepsis, a life-threatening condition triggered by the body's response to infection, remains a significant global health challenge, annually affecting millions in the United States alone with substantial mortality and healthcare costs. Early prediction of sepsis is critical for timely intervention and improved patient outcomes. This study introduces an innovative predictive model leveraging machine learning techniques and a specific data-splitting approach on highly imbalanced electronic health records (EHRs). Using PhysioNet/CinC Challenge 2019 data from 40,336 patients, including vital signs, lab values, and demographics. Preliminary assessments using classical and stacked ML models with Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE) augmentation were conducted, showing improved performance. It is found that stacking ML models enhances overall accuracy but faces limitations in precision, recall, and F1 score for positive class prediction. A novel data-splitting approach with 5-fold cross-validation and SMOTE and COPULA augmentation techniques demonstrated promise, with F1 scores ranging from 93 % to 94 % using the COPULA technique. COPULA excelled at predictions for different hours' onsets compared to the SMOTE technique. The proposed model outperformed existing studies, suggesting clinical viability for early sepsis prediction.
Computer-aided diagnosis for the reliable and fast detection of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has become a necessity to prevent the spread of the virus during the pandemic to ease the burden on the healthcare system. Chest X-ray (CXR) imaging has several advantages over other imaging and detection techniques. Numerous works have been reported on COVID-19 detection from a smaller set of original X-ray images. However, the effect of image enhancement and lung segmentation of a large dataset in COVID-19 detection was not reported in the literature. We have compiled a large X-ray dataset (COVQU) consisting of 18,479 CXR images with 8851 normal, 6012 non-COVID lung infections, and 3616 COVID-19 CXR images and their corresponding ground truth lung masks. To the best of our knowledge, this is the largest public COVID positive database and the lung masks. Five different image enhancement techniques: histogram equalization (HE), contrast limited adaptive histogram equalization (CLAHE), image complement, gamma correction, and balance contrast enhancement technique (BCET) were used to investigate the effect of image enhancement techniques on COVID-19 detection. A novel U-Net model was proposed and compared with the standard U-Net model for lung segmentation. Six different pre-trained Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) (ResNet18, ResNet50, ResNet101, InceptionV3, DenseNet201, and ChexNet) and a shallow CNN model were investigated on the plain and segmented lung CXR images. The novel U-Net model showed an accuracy, Intersection over Union (IoU), and Dice coefficient of 98.63%, 94.3%, and 96.94%, respectively for lung segmentation. The gamma correction-based enhancement technique outperforms other techniques in detecting COVID-19 from the plain and the segmented lung CXR images. Classification performance from plain CXR images is slightly better than the segmented lung CXR images; however, the reliability of network performance is significantly improved for the segmented lung images, which was observed using the visualization technique. The accuracy, precision, sensitivity, F1-score, and specificity were 95.11%, 94.55%, 94.56%, 94.53%, and 95.59% respectively for the segmented lung images. The proposed approach with very reliable and comparable performance will boost the fast and robust COVID-19 detection using chest X-ray images.
The reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) test is considered the current gold standard for the detection of coronavirus disease (COVID-19), although it suffers from some shortcomings, namely comparatively longer turnaround time, higher false-negative rates around 20-25%, and higher cost equipment. Therefore, finding an efficient, robust, accurate, and widely available, and accessible alternative to RT-PCR for COVID-19 diagnosis is a matter of utmost importance. This study proposes a complete blood count (CBC) biomarkers-based COVID-19 detection system using a stacking machine learning (SML) model, which could be a fast and less expensive alternative. This study used seven different publicly available datasets, where the largest one consisting of fifteen CBC biomarkers collected from 1624 patients (52% COVID-19 positive) admitted at San Raphael Hospital, Italy from February to May 2020 was used to train and validate the proposed model. White blood cell count, monocytes (%), lymphocyte (%), and age parameters collected from the patients during hospital admission were found to be important biomarkers for COVID-19 disease prediction using five different feature selection techniques. Our stacking model produced the best performance with weighted precision, sensitivity, specificity, overall accuracy, and F1-score of 91.44%, 91.44%, 91.44%, 91.45%, and 91.45%, respectively. The stacking machine learning model improved the performance in comparison to other state-of-the-art machine learning classifiers. Finally, a nomogram-based scoring system (QCovSML) was constructed using this stacking approach to predict the COVID-19 patients. The cut-off value of the QCovSML system for classifying COVID-19 and Non-COVID patients was 4.8. Six datasets from three different countries were used to externally validate the proposed model to evaluate its generalizability and robustness. The nomogram demonstrated good calibration and discrimination with the area under the curve (AUC) of 0.961 for the internal cohort and average AUC of 0.967 for all external validation cohort, respectively. The external validation shows an average weighted precision, sensitivity, F1-score, specificity, and overall accuracy of 92.02%, 95.59%, 93.73%, 90.54%, and 93.34%, respectively.
With the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the number of critically sick patients in intensive care units (ICUs) has increased worldwide, putting a burden on ICUs. Early prediction of ICU requirement is crucial for efficient resource management and distribution. Early-prediction scoring systems for critically ill patients using mathematical models are available, but are not generalized for COVID-19 and Non-COVID patients. This study aims to develop a generalized and reliable prognostic model for ICU admission for both COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 patients using best feature combination from the patient data at admission. A retrospective cohort study was conducted on a dataset collected from the pulmonology department of Moscow City State Hospital between 20 April 2020 and 5 June 2020. The dataset contains ten clinical features for 231 patients, of whom 100 patients were transferred to ICU and 131 were stable (non-ICU) patients. There were 156 COVID positive patients and 75 non-COVID patients. Different feature selection techniques were investigated, and a stacking machine learning model was proposed and compared with eight different classification algorithms to detect risk of need for ICU admission for both COVID-19 and non-COVID patients combined and COVID patients alone. C-reactive protein (CRP), chest computed tomography (CT), lung tissue affected (%), age, admission to hospital, and fibrinogen parameters at hospital admission were found to be important features for ICU-requirement risk prediction. The best performance was produced by the stacking approach, with weighted precision, sensitivity, F1-score, specificity, and overall accuracy of 84.45%, 84.48%, 83.64%, 84.47%, and 84.48%, respectively, for both types of patients, and 85.34%, 85.35%, 85.11%, 85.34%, and 85.35%, respectively, for COVID-19 patients only. The proposed work can help doctors to improve management through early prediction of the risk of need for ICU admission of patients during the COVID-19 pandemic, as the model can be used for both types of patients.
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) after outbreaking in Wuhan increasingly spread throughout the world. Fast, reliable, and easily accessible clinical assessment of the severity of the disease can help in allocating and prioritizing resources to reduce mortality. The objective of the study was to develop and validate an early scoring tool to stratify the risk of death using readily available complete blood count (CBC) biomarkers. A retrospective study was conducted on twenty-three CBC blood biomarkers for predicting disease mortality for 375 COVID-19 patients admitted to Tongji Hospital, China from January 10 to February 18, 2020. Machine learning based key biomarkers among the CBC parameters as the mortality predictors were identified. A multivariate logistic regression-based nomogram and a scoring system was developed to categorize the patients in three risk groups (low, moderate, and high) for predicting the mortality risk among COVID-19 patients. Lymphocyte count, neutrophils count, age, white blood cell count, monocytes (%), platelet count, red blood cell distribution width parameters collected at hospital admission were selected as important biomarkers for death prediction using random forest feature selection technique. A CBC score was devised for calculating the death probability of the patients and was used to categorize the patients into three sub-risk groups: low (<=5%), moderate (>5% and <=50%), and high (>50%), respectively. The area under the curve (AUC) of the model for the development and internal validation cohort were 0.961 and 0.88, respectively. The proposed model was further validated with an external cohort of 103 patients of Dhaka Medical College, Bangladesh, which exhibits in an AUC of 0.963. The proposed CBC parameter-based prognostic model and the associated web-application, can help the medical doctors to improve the management by early prediction of mortality risk of the COVID-19 patients in the low-resource countries.