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Fulltext Mathematical epidemiologic and simulation modelling of first wave COVID-19 in Malaysia

Ariffin MRK, Gopal K, Krishnarajah I, Che Ilias IS, Adam MB, Arasan J, et al.

Sci Rep, 2021 Oct 20;11(1):20739.
PMID: 34671103 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-021-99541-0

Since the first coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak appeared in Wuhan, mainland China on December 31, 2019, the geographical spread of the epidemic was swift. Malaysia is one of the countries that were hit substantially by the outbreak, particularly in the second wave. This study aims to simulate the infectious trend and trajectory of COVID-19 to understand the severity of the disease and determine the approximate number of days required for the trend to decline. The number of confirmed positive infectious cases [as reported by Ministry of Health, Malaysia (MOH)] were used from January 25, 2020 to March 31, 2020. This study simulated the infectious count for the same duration to assess the predictive capability of the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model. The same model was used to project the simulation trajectory of confirmed positive infectious cases for 80 days from the beginning of the outbreak and extended the trajectory for another 30 days to obtain an overall picture of the severity of the disease in Malaysia. The transmission rate, β also been utilized to predict the cumulative number of infectious individuals. Using the SIR model, the simulated infectious cases count obtained was not far from the actual count. The simulated trend was able to mimic the actual count and capture the actual spikes approximately. The infectious trajectory simulation for 80 days and the extended trajectory for 110 days depicts that the inclining trend has peaked and ended and will decline towards late April 2020. Furthermore, the predicted cumulative number of infectious individuals tallies with the preparations undertaken by the MOH. The simulation indicates the severity of COVID-19 disease in Malaysia, suggesting a peak of infectiousness in mid-March 2020 and a probable decline in late April 2020. Overall, the study findings indicate that outbreak control measures such as the Movement Control Order (MCO), social distancing and increased hygienic awareness is needed to control the transmission of the outbreak in Malaysia.

Matched MeSH terms: Disease Susceptibility/epidemiology
Fulltext Molecular and pathogenicity of infectious bronchitis virus (Gammacoronavirus) in Japanese quail (Coturnix japonica)

Fadhilah AS, Kai TH, Lokman HI, Yasmin NAR, Hafandi A, Hasliza AH, et al.

Poult Sci, 2020 Jun;99(6):2937-2943.
PMID: 32475428 DOI: 10.1016/j.psj.2020.01.026

Infectious bronchitis virus (IBV) infection is highly infectious respiratory disease in poultry industry with significant economic importance. The prevalence of IBV in quail industry in Malaysia was not well documented; therefore, its actual role in the epidemiology of the disease is relatively unknown. This study was to determine the susceptibility of Japanese quail, as one of the species in commercial poultry industry, toward IBV. In addition, it will also give a potential impact on the overall health management in the quail industry even though it had been established that quail are resistant to diseases affecting poultry. Moreover, to the best of our knowledge, it is the first experimental study on IBV inoculation in quail. In this experimental study, 20 quails were divided into 4 groups (n = 5 for group A, B, and C, n = 5 for control group). The quails in group A, B, and C were infected via intraocular and intranasal routes with 0.2 mL of 10 × 5 EID50 of the virus. Clinical signs, gross lesions, positive detection of virus, and trachea histopathological scoring were used to assess the susceptibility of these Japanese quails. The results have indicated mild ruffled feathers and watery feces in these inoculated birds. Trachea, lung, and kidney were subjected to one-step reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction for virus detection. The virus was found from trachea and lung samples, whereas it was absent from all kidney samples. Only 3 quails were found with gross lesions. There was a significant difference of tracheal lesion by 0.009 ± 0.845 (P < 0.05) within the treatment groups. In summary, Japanese quails might be susceptible to IBV.

Matched MeSH terms: Disease Susceptibility/epidemiology
Prevalence of rubella susceptibility among pregnant mothers in a community-based antenatal clinic in Malaysia: a cross-sectional study

Cheong AT, Khoo EM

Asia Pac J Public Health, 2008;20(4):340-6.
PMID: 19124328 DOI: 10.1177/1010539508322698

INTRODUCTION: routine rubella antibody screening is not done for antenatal mothers in community health clinics in Malaysia. However, congenital rubella syndrome has persisted with its associated health burden.
OBJECTIVES: to determine the prevalence of rubella susceptibility among pregnant mothers and its associated risk factors.
METHODOLOGY: a cross-sectional study was carried out in the Petaling district, Selangor, Malaysia, where 500 pregnant mothers were recruited, and face-to-face interviews were conducted. Rubella IgG tests were performed.
RESULTS: the prevalence of rubella susceptibility among pregnant mothers was 11.4%. Using logistic regression, a history of not having received rubella vaccination or having unknown rubella vaccination status was found to be a significant predictor for mothers to be rubella susceptible (odds ratio = 2.691; 95% confidence interval = 1.539-4.207).
CONCLUSIONS: routine rubella IgG screening tests need to be offered to all antenatal mothers in view of the high prevalence found.
Study site: Antenatal clinics (klinik kesihatan), Petaling, Selangor, Malaysia

Matched MeSH terms: Disease Susceptibility/epidemiology*
Fulltext Disease- and Treatment-related Morbidity in Adolescents With Perinatal HIV Infection in Asia

Bartlett AW, Mohamed TJ, Sudjaritruk T, Kurniati N, Nallusamy R, Hansudewechakul R, et al.

Pediatr Infect Dis J, 2019 03;38(3):287-292.
PMID: 30281549 DOI: 10.1097/INF.0000000000002208

BACKGROUND: Perinatally HIV-infected adolescents (PHIVA) are exposed to a chronic systemic infection and long-term antiretroviral therapy (ART), leaving them susceptible to morbidities associated with inflammation, immunodeficiency and drug toxicity.
METHODS: Data collected 2001 to 2016 from PHIVA 10-19 years of age within a regional Asian cohort were analyzed using competing risk time-to-event and Poisson regression analyses to describe the nature and incidence of morbidity events and hospitalizations and identify factors associated with disease-related, treatment-related and overall morbidity. Morbidity was defined according to World Health Organization clinical staging criteria and U.S. National Institutes of Health Division of AIDS criteria.
RESULTS: A total 3,448 PHIVA contributed 17,778 person-years. Median age at HIV diagnosis was 5.5 years, and ART initiation was 6.9 years. There were 2,562 morbidity events and 307 hospitalizations. Cumulative incidence for any morbidity was 51.7%, and hospitalization was 10.0%. Early adolescence was dominated by disease-related infectious morbidity, with a trend toward noninfectious and treatment-related morbidity in later adolescence. Higher overall morbidity rates were associated with a CD4 count <350 cells/µL, HIV viral load ≥10,000 copies/mL and experiencing prior morbidity at age <10 years. Lower overall morbidity rates were found for those 15-19 years of age compared with 10-14 years and those who initiated ART at age 5-9 years compared with <5 or ≥10 years.
CONCLUSIONS: Half of our PHIVA cohort experienced a morbidity event, with a trend from disease-related infectious events to treatment-related and noninfectious events as PHIVA age. ART initiation to prevent immune system damage, optimize virologic control and minimize childhood morbidity are key to limiting adolescent morbidity.

Matched MeSH terms: Disease Susceptibility/epidemiology