Displaying publications 41 - 60 of 101 in total

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  1. Mohan D, Stephan BC, Allotey P, Jagger C, Pearce M, Siervo M, et al.
    BMJ Open, 2017 01 19;7(1):e013635.
    PMID: 28104710 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2016-013635
    INTRODUCTION: There is a growing proportion of population aged 65 years and older in low-income and middle-income countries. In Malaysia, this proportion is predicted to increase from 5.1% in 2010 to more than 15.4% by 2050. Cognitive ageing and dementia are global health priorities. However, risk factors and disease associations in a multiethnic, middle-income country like Malaysia may not be consistent with those reported in other world regions. Knowing the burden of cognitive impairment and its risk factors in Malaysia is necessary for the development of management strategies and would provide valuable information for other transitional economies.

    METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This is a community-based feasibility study focused on the assessment of cognition, embedded in the longitudinal study of health and demographic surveillance site of the South East Asia Community Observatory (SEACO), in Malaysia. In total, 200 adults aged ≥50 years are selected for an in-depth health and cognitive assessment including the Mini Mental State Examination, the Montreal Cognitive Assessment, blood pressure, anthropometry, gait speed, hand grip strength, Depression Anxiety Stress Score and dried blood spots.

    DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: The results will inform the feasibility, response rates and operational challenges for establishing an ageing study focused on cognitive function in similar middle-income country settings. Knowing the burden of cognitive impairment and dementia and risk factors for disease will inform local health priorities and management, and place these within the context of increasing life expectancy.

    ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study protocol is approved by the Monash University Human Research Ethics Committee. Informed consent is obtained from all the participants. The project's analysed data and findings will be made available through publications and conference presentations and a data sharing archive. Reports on key findings will be made available as community briefs on the SEACO website.

  2. Ahmadi K, Reidpath DD, Allotey P, Hassali MA
    BMJ Open, 2013 May 28;3(5).
    PMID: 23793653 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2013-002755
    INTRODUCTION: HIV/AIDS-related stigma affects the access and utilisation of health services. Although HIV/AIDS-related stigma in the health services has been studied, little work has attended to the relationship between professional development and stigmatising attitudes. Hence, in this study, we will extend earlier research by examining the relationship between the stage of professional development and the kinds of stigmatising attitudes held about people living with HIV/AIDS.

    METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A serial cross-sectional design will be combined with a two-point in time longitudinal design to measure the levels of stigma among healthcare students from each year of undergraduate and graduate courses in Malaysia and Australia. In the absence of suitable measures, we will carry out a sequential mixed methods design to develop such a tool. The questionnaire data will be analysed using mixed effects linear models to manage the repeated measures.

    ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: We have received ethical approval from the Monash MBBS executive committee as well as the Monash University Human Research Ethics Committee. We will keep the data in a locked filing cabinet in the Monash University (Sunway campus) premises for 5 years, after which the information will be shredded and disposed of in secure bins, and digital recordings will be erased in accordance with Monash University's regulations. Only the principal investigator and the researcher will have access to the filing cabinet. We aim to present and publish the results of this study in national and international conferences and peer-reviewed journals, respectively.

  3. Reidpath DD, Soyiri I, Jahan NK, Mohan D, Ahmad B, Ahmad MP, et al.
    Int J Public Health, 2018 Mar;63(2):193-202.
    PMID: 29372287 DOI: 10.1007/s00038-017-1072-4
    OBJECTIVES: The lack of population-based evidence on the risk factors for poor glycaemic control in diabetics, particularly in resource-poor settings, is a challenge for the prevention of long-term complications. This study aimed to identify the metabolic and demographic risk factors for poor glycaemic control among diabetics in a rural community in Malaysia.

    METHODS: A total of 1844 (780 males and 1064 females) known diabetics aged ≥ 35 years were identified from the South East Asia Community Observatory (SEACO) health and demographic surveillance site database.

    RESULTS: 41.3% of the sample had poor glycaemic control. Poor glycaemic control was associated with age and ethnicity, with older participants (65+) better controlled than younger adults (45-54), and Malaysian Indians most poorly controlled, followed by Malay and then Chinese participants. Metabolic risk factors were also highly associated with poor glycaemic control.

    CONCLUSIONS: There is a critical need for evidence for a better understanding of the mechanisms of the associations between risk factors and glycaemic control.

  4. Cheong WL, Mohan D, Warren N, Reidpath DD
    J Palliat Med, 2019 May;22(5):545-552.
    PMID: 30570416 DOI: 10.1089/jpm.2018.0447
    Background:
    The state of palliative care research is closely linked to the development of palliative care services in a country or region.
    Objective:
    To systematically review the current state of palliative care research in the Asia Pacific region and analyze its relationship with the performance of each country in the region on the Economist Intelligence Unit's 2015 Quality of Death Index.
    Design:
    Systematic review and bibliographic analysis in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis Protocol 2015 (PRISMA-P).
    Data Sources:
    The PubMed/MEDLINE, EMBASE, SCOPUS, CINAHL, and PsychiNFO databases were searched on February 4, 2018.
    Results:
    One thousand six hundred sixty-seven articles were reviewed. Eighteen out of 32 countries in the region published research. Around 74.15% (1236) of the articles were produced by high-income countries. Research output (articles per 1 m population) was closely linked to country performance on the Economist Intelligence Unit's 2015 Quality of Death Index (adjusted R2= 0.85). Palliative care research in the region is overwhelmingly focused on cancer (80.13% of articles reviewed). The most common themes of research were "palliative care service (24.45%)" and "clinical" (15.38%).
    Conclusions:
    Palliative care research in the region is growing but remains largely centered on the high-income countries, with many low- and middle-income countries having little published research output. Much work is required to drive research in these countries to generate the evidence required for the development of palliative care services. The emphasis on cancer in research also indicates that the needs of patients suffering from noncancer-related diseases may be neglected.
  5. Allotey-Reidpath KD, Allotey P, Reidpath DD
    Reprod Health Matters, 2018 Dec;26(52):1451173.
    PMID: 29651926 DOI: 10.1080/09688080.2018.1451173
    Recent globally compiled evidence suggests that one-quarter of pregnancies end in abortions. However, abortions remain illegal in many countries, resulting in unsafe practices. Debates have largely stalled with the pro-life, pro-choice epithets. To provide further arguments in support of legalising abortion services, we argue that the state cannot demand of a woman that she maintains an unwanted pregnancy because that demand places her in a state of involuntary servitude. Involuntary servitude would put states in breach of international human rights law (Article 8 of International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights). Furthermore, we argue that the fact that a life may be forfeit when a woman withdraws her service is no basis for enforcing the servitude. We draw on the 13th Amendment of the US Constitution as an example to extend the argument and highlight the need to test involuntary servitude in international human rights law through mechanisms offered in the international periodic review of member states. This could provide a robust approach to support and strengthen access to safe abortion services.
  6. Cheong WL, Mohan D, Warren N, Reidpath DD
    Front Neurol, 2018;9:432.
    PMID: 29937752 DOI: 10.3389/fneur.2018.00432
    Background: Multiple sclerosis is thought to be relatively uncommon in the Asia Pacific region with prevalence estimated between 0 and 20 per 100,000. There is reason to doubt these estimates due to the lack of data from many countries and the growing evidence of variability in prevalence across small geographic areas. This study was conducted to systematically review the population prevalence, incidence, mortality and disability progression estimates of MS within the Asia Pacific region. Methods: The systematic review was conducted on articles from 1985 till 31st July 2017 within the PubMed/MEDLINE, EMBASE, SCOPUS, and The Cochrane Library databases. The review included articles that were population-based studies conducted on patients with MS in the Asia Pacific region that reported either incidence, prevalence, mortality, or disease progression. Hospital-based studies and non-research articles were excluded to ensure that only information representative of the population was included for analysis. Data appraisal and extraction was done by independent reviewers. This review was registered with PROSPERO (ID: CRD42017082760). Findings: Of the 2,757 articles found, 16 studies were included. Information on 6 (18.75%) of 32 Asia Pacific countries was found, with data representing 8% of the total population. Prevalence estimates were available for 6 countries while estimates for incidence (3 countries), mortality (4 countries), and disease progression (2 countries) were limited. Interpretation: The lack of epidemiological data available in the Asia Pacific region creates a blind spot in the surveillance of MS which obscures the true burden of MS, causing patients to struggle to receive the resources and funding that they need.
  7. Masood M, Reidpath DD
    Curr Med Res Opin, 2014 May;30(5):857-63.
    PMID: 24328497 DOI: 10.1185/03007995.2013.875466
    BACKGROUND: The aim of this paper was to review the types of approaches currently utilized in the analysis of multi-country survey data, specifically focusing on design and modeling issues with a focus on analyses of significant multi-country surveys published in 2010.
    METHODS: A systematic search strategy was used to identify the 10 multi-country surveys and the articles published from them in 2010. The surveys were selected to reflect diverse topics and foci; and provide an insight into analytic approaches across research themes. The search identified 159 articles appropriate for full text review and data extraction.
    RESULTS: The analyses adopted in the multi-country surveys can be broadly classified as: univariate/bivariate analyses, and multivariate/multivariable analyses. Multivariate/multivariable analyses may be further divided into design- and model-based analyses. Of the 159 articles reviewed, 129 articles used model-based analysis, 30 articles used design-based analyses. Similar patterns could be seen in all the individual surveys.
    CONCLUSION: While there is general agreement among survey statisticians that complex surveys are most appropriately analyzed using design-based analyses, most researchers continued to use the more common model-based approaches. Recent developments in design-based multi-level analysis may be one approach to include all the survey design characteristics. This is a relatively new area, however, and there remains statistical, as well as applied analytic research required. An important limitation of this study relates to the selection of the surveys used and the choice of year for the analysis, i.e., year 2010 only. There is, however, no strong reason to believe that analytic strategies have changed radically in the past few years, and 2010 provides a credible snapshot of current practice.
  8. Koly KN, Tasnim Z, Ahmed S, Saba J, Mahmood R, Farin FT, et al.
    BMC Psychiatry, 2022 Dec 19;22(1):797.
    PMID: 36529761 DOI: 10.1186/s12888-022-04414-z
    BACKGROUND: Mental health remains a highly stigmatized area of healthcare, and people often conceal their concerns rather than seek assistance or treatment. The Women Support Initiative Forum (WSIF) is a social media platform established in 2018 to provide expert and peer-led psychosocial support services to women of all ages in Bangladesh. The anonymous nature of the forum means that mental health concerns can be aired without fear of identification.

    METHOD: A content analysis was conducted on the anonymous posts retrieved from the WSIF platform between 8th March 2020 and 7th July 2022. Around 1457 posts were initially selected for analysis which was reduced to 1006 after removing duplicates and non-relevant posts, such as queries about the addresses of the doctors and other non-mental health-related issues. A thematic analysis of the data was conducted using an inductive approach.

    RESULT: The 1006 posts generated four themes and nine sub-themes. All the women mentioned mental health symptoms (n = 1006; 100%). Most also mentioned reasons for seeking mental healthcare (n = 818; 81.31%), healthcare-seeking behavior (n = 667; 66.30%), and barriers to seeking mental healthcare (n = 552; 54.87%). The majority of women described symptoms of stress, depression, and anxiety-like symptoms, which were aggregated under common mental health conditions. Mental health symptoms were ascribed to various external influences, including marital relationship, intrafamilial abuse, and insecurities related to the COVID-19 pandemic. A large proportion of posts were related to women seeking information about mental healthcare services and service providers (psychologists or psychiatrists). The analysis found that most women did not obtain mental healthcare services despite their externalized mental health symptoms. The posts identified clear barriers to women accessing mental health services, including low mental health literacy, the stigma associated with mental healthcare-seeking behavior, and the poor availability of mental health care services.

    CONCLUSION: The study revealed that raising mass awareness and designing culturally acceptable evidence-based interventions with multisectoral collaborations are crucial to ensuring better mental healthcare coverage for women in Bangladesh.

  9. Aborigo RA, Reidpath DD, Oduro AR, Allotey P
    BMC Pregnancy Childbirth, 2018 01 02;18(1):3.
    PMID: 29291711 DOI: 10.1186/s12884-017-1641-9
    BACKGROUND: Twenty years after acknowledging the importance of joint responsibilities and male participation in maternal health programs, most health care systems in low income countries continue to face challenges in involving men. We explored the reasons for men's resistance to the adoption of a more proactive role in pregnancy care and their enduring influence in the decision making process during emergencies.

    METHODS: Ten focus group discussions were held with opinion leaders (chiefs, elders, assemblymen, leaders of women groups) and 16 in-depth interviews were conducted with healthcare workers (District Directors of Health, Medical Assistants in-charge of health centres, and district Public Health Nurses and Midwives). The interviews and discussions were audio recorded, transcribed into English and imported into NVivo 10 for content analysis.

    RESULTS: As heads of the family, men control resources, consult soothsayers to determine the health seeking or treatment for pregnant women, and serve as the final authority on where and when pregnant women should seek medical care. Beyond that, they have no expectation of any further role during antenatal care and therefore find it unnecessary to attend clinics with their partners. There were conflicting views about whether men needed to provide any extra support to their pregnant partners within the home. Health workers generally agreed that men provided little or no support to their partners. Although health workers had facilitated the formation of father support groups, there was little evidence of any impact on antenatal support.

    CONCLUSIONS: In patriarchal settings, the role of men can be complex and social and cultural traditions may conflict with public health recommendations. Initiatives to promote male involvement should focus on young men and use chiefs and opinion leaders as advocates to re-orient men towards more proactive involvement in ensuring the health of their partners.

  10. Cheong WL, Mohan D, Warren N, Reidpath DD
    Disabil Rehabil, 2021 07;43(15):2184-2190.
    PMID: 31769306 DOI: 10.1080/09638288.2019.1695000
    BACKGROUND: The needs of patients with multiple sclerosis have been well-studied in high-income, high-prevalence countries but few studies have been based in low- and middle-income countries where resources are relatively scarce. As such, little is known about the needs of patients living in these countries.

    OBJECTIVE: The study seeks to develop an understanding of the needs of patients with multiple sclerosis living in Malaysia in order to generate insights and contribute to a global database of patients' experience.

    METHOD: 12 patients with multiple sclerosis participated in this qualitative study and took part in a semi-structured interview. The interviews were transcribed and analysed using an iterative thematic analysis approach.

    RESULTS: The experiences, challenges and needs of the patients were reported. Five themes were developed (Daily living, Financial, Emotional and psychological, Healthcare, and Family). These predominantly revolved around the struggles of coping and adapting to the symptoms and disabilities imposed by multiple sclerosis, their heavy reliance on personal finances to cope with the increased costs of living for themselves and their families, as well as the limited healthcare services and treatments available to help them to manage the physical and emotional symptoms of multiple sclerosis.

    CONCLUSION: Patients with multiple sclerosis in Malaysia have complex needs that are neglected due perceived lack of importance of the disease and the poor understanding of multiple sclerosis in general. Patients rely heavily on their finances to improve their quality of life. This perpetuates health inequities and reform of the national health financing system is needed to provide patients with the healthcare and support they need.Implications for rehabilitationPatients with multiple sclerosis in Malaysia prioritize being able to cope and adapt to their disabilities in order to continue performing their activities of daily living.There is a need to increase the availability and accessibility of healthcare professionals that are experienced with the management of multiple sclerosis.Healthcare professionals need to improve their understanding of the patients' needs and what they consider to be important in order to provide therapy that is effective and relevant.Patients also require financial support to help them with the increased costs of living associated with MS as well as the costs of healthcare services such as physiotherapy and rehabilitation.

  11. Bonsu KO, Kadirvelu A, Reidpath DD
    Syst Rev, 2013;2:22.
    PMID: 23618535 DOI: 10.1186/2046-4053-2-22
    Statins are known to reduce cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in primary and secondary prevention studies. Subsequently, a number of nonrandomised studies have shown statins improve clinical outcomes in patients with heart failure (HF). Small randomised controlled trials (RCT) also show improved cardiac function, reduced inflammation and mortality with statins in HF. However, the findings of two large RCTs do not support the evidence provided by previous studies and suggest statins lack beneficial effects in HF. Two meta-analyses have shown statins do not improve survival, whereas two others showed improved cardiac function and reduced inflammation in HF. It appears lipophilic statins produce better survival and other outcome benefits compared to hydrophilic statins. But the two types have not been compared in direct comparison trials in HF.
  12. Bonsu KO, Reidpath DD, Kadirvelu A
    Cardiovasc Drugs Ther, 2016 Apr;30(2):177-88.
    PMID: 26780905 DOI: 10.1007/s10557-015-6636-z
    OBJECTIVES: This study aims to compare lipophilic and hydrophilic statin therapy on clinical outcomes of heart failure (HF) using a systematic review and an adjusted indirect comparison meta-analysis. Outcomes were all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, cardiovascular hospitalization and hospitalization for worsening HF.

    METHODS: We conducted a search of PubMed, EMBASE and Cochrane databases until 31st December 2014 for randomized control trials (RCTs) in HF evaluating statins versus placebo. Identified RCTs and their respective abstracted information were grouped according to statin type evaluated and analyzed separately. Outcomes were initially pooled with the Peto's one-step method, producing odd ratios (OR) and 95 % confidence intervals (CI) for each statin type. Using these pooled estimates, we performed adjusted indirect comparisons of lipophilic versus hydrophilic statin for each outcome.

    RESULTS: Thirteen studies involving 10,966 patients were identified and analyzed. Lipophilic statins were superior to hydrophilic rosuvastatin regarding all-cause mortality (OR 0 · 50; 95 % CI, 0 · 11-0 · 89; p = 0 · 01), cardiovascular mortality (OR 0 · 61; 0 · 25-0 · 97; p = 0 · 009), and hospitalization for worsening HF (OR 0 · 52; 0 · 21-0 · 83; p = 0 · 0005). However, both statins were comparable with regards to cardiovascular hospitalization [OR 0 · 80 (0 · 31, 1 · 28); p = 0 · 36].

    CONCLUSIONS: Lipophilic statin treatment shows significant decreases in all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality and hospitalization for worsening HF compared with rosuvastatin treatment. This meta-analysis provides preliminary evidence that lipophilic statins offer better clinical outcomes in HF till data from head to head comparisons are available.

  13. Allotey PA, Reidpath DD, Evans NC, Devarajan N, Rajagobal K, Bachok R, et al.
    Glob Health Action, 2015 Jan;8(1):28219.
    PMID: 28156759 DOI: 10.3402/gha.v8.28219
    Background Verbal autopsies have gained considerable ground as an acceptable alternative to medically determined cause of death. Unlike with clinical or more administrative settings for data collection, verbal autopsies require significant involvement of families and communities, which introduces important social and cultural considerations. However, there is very little clear guidance about the methodological issues in data collection. The objectives of this case study were: to explore the range of bereavement rituals within the multi-ethnic, multi-faith population of the district; to investigate the preparedness of communities to talk about death; to describe the verbal autopsy process; to assess the effects of collecting verbal autopsy data on data collectors; and to determine the most accurate sources of information about deaths in the community. Methods A case study approach was used, using focus group discussions, indepth interviews and field notes. Thematic analyses were undertaken using NVivo. Results Consideration of cultural bereavement practices is importance to acceptance and response rates to verbal autopsies. They are also important to the timing of verbal autopsy interviews. Well trained data collectors, regardless of health qualifications are able to collect good quality data, but debriefing is important to their health and well being. This article contributes to guidance on the data collection procedures for verbal autopsies within community settings.
  14. Davey TM, Allotey P, Reidpath DD
    Public Health, 2013 Dec;127(12):1057-62.
    PMID: 24268545 DOI: 10.1016/j.puhe.2013.09.008
    Effective population-level solutions to the obesity pandemic have proved elusive. In low- and middle-income countries the problem may be further challenged by the perceived internal tension between economic development and sustainable solutions which create the optimal conditions for human health and well-being. This paper discusses some of the ecological obstacles to addressing the growing problem of obesity in 'aspiring' economies, using Malaysia as a case study. The authors conclude that current measures to stimulate economic growth in Malaysia may actually be exacerbating the problem of obesity in that country. Public health solutions which address the wider context in which obesity exists are needed to change the course of this burgeoning problem.
  15. Masood M, Reidpath DD
    BMJ Open, 2016 Jan 07;6(1):e008173.
    PMID: 26743697 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2015-008173
    OBJECTIVES: Measuring the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) and design effect (DE) may help to modify the public health interventions for body mass index (BMI), physical activity and diet according to geographic targeting of interventions in different countries. The purpose of this study was to quantify the level of clustering and DE in BMI, physical activity and diet in 56 low-income, middle-income and high-income countries.
    DESIGN: Cross-sectional study design.
    SETTING: Multicountry national survey data.
    METHODS: The World Health Survey (WHS), 2003, data were used to examine clustering in BMI, physical activity in metabolic equivalent of task (MET) and diet in fruits and vegetables intake (FVI) from low-income, middle-income and high-income countries. Multistage sampling in the WHS used geographical clusters as primary sampling units (PSU). These PSUs were used as a clustering or grouping variable in this analysis. Multilevel intercept only regression models were used to calculate the ICC and DE for each country.
    RESULTS: The median ICC (0.039) and median DE (1.82) for BMI were low; however, FVI had a higher median ICC (0.189) and median DE (4.16). For MET, the median ICC was 0.141 and median DE was 4.59. In some countries, however, the ICC and DE for BMI were large. For instance, South Africa had the highest ICC (0.39) and DE (11.9) for BMI, whereas Uruguay had the highest ICC (0.434) for MET and Ethiopia had the highest ICC (0.471) for FVI.
    CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that across a wide range of countries, there was low area level clustering for BMI, whereas MET and FVI showed high area level clustering. These results suggested that the country level clustering effect should be considered in developing preventive approaches for BMI, as well as improving physical activity and healthy diets for each country.
    KEYWORDS: Body Mass Index (BMI); Intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC); Physical activity (METs)
    Study name: World Health Survey (Malaysia is a study site)
  16. Yap KH, Warren N, Reidpath DD, Allotey P
    Int J Qual Stud Health Well-being, 2019 Dec;14(1):1613875.
    PMID: 31120385 DOI: 10.1080/17482631.2019.1613875
    Purpose: Stroke survivors report poorer self-rated health (SRH) compared to the general population but there is limited understanding on what contributes to SRH. This ethnographic study examined the individual and contextual factors that shape stroke survivors' SRH in a rural middle income country situated in South East Asia. Methods: Ethnographic methods which encompasses various data collection methods from different data sources were used in this study to describe the socio-cultural context of 16 stroke survivors living in a rural village. Within this context, the experiences of these participants were then interpreted in terms of what contributed to their perception of health and recovery, juxtaposed with objectively measure physical and cognitive states. Results: SRH reflected the post stroke adjustment of stroke survivors. Better SRH was influenced by good post-stroke adjustment that was achieved by a combination of physical functioning, cognitive functioning, emotional well-being and family support. Poorer SRH appear to reflect poor post-stroke adjustment regardless of the objective physical and cognitive states of the stroke survivors. It was also observed that cognitive deficits, though its presence was acknowledged by participants, were usually not taken into account when rating SRH. However, while physical functioning was perceived by participants to directly impact SRH, the presence of cognitive deficits (often in tandem with depressive symptoms) indirectly complicated the recovery of physical functions treasured by participants. Conclusion: Stroke survivors reporting poorer SRH warrant further attention and intervention from health practitioners supporting the longer-term needs of stroke survivors in similar settings.
  17. Nwameme A, Dako-Gyeke P, Asampong E, Allotey P, Reidpath DD, Certain E, et al.
    PLoS Negl Trop Dis, 2023 Mar;17(3):e0011139.
    PMID: 36961830 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0011139
    The Special Programme for Research and Training in Tropical Diseases developed a massive open online course (MOOC) on implementation research with a focus on infectious diseases of poverty (IDPs) to reinforce the explanation of implementation research concepts through real case studies. The target MOOC participant group included public health officers, researchers and students. By reshaping institutions and building resilience in communities and systems, implementation research will allow progress towards universal health coverage and sustainable development goals. This study evaluates learners' knowledge in implementation research after completing the MOOC using anonymous exit survey responses. Of the almost 4000 enrolled in the two sessions of the MOOC in 2018, about 30% completed all five modules and the assessments, and were awarded certificates. The majority of the participants were early to mid-career professionals, under the age of 40, and from low- and middle-income countries. They were slightly more likely to be men (56%) with a Bachelor or a Master's degree. Participants were public health researchers (45%), public health officers (11%) or students (11%). On completion of the course, an exit survey revealed that 80.9% of respondents indicated significant improvement to strong and very strong implementation research knowledge. This evaluation clearly shows the usefulness of the MOOC on implementation research for reaching out to field researchers and public health practitioners who are facing problems in the implementation of control programmes in low- and middle-income countries.
  18. Soyiri IN, Reidpath DD
    PLoS One, 2012;7(10):e47823.
    PMID: 23118897 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0047823
    The concept of forecasting asthma using humans as animal sentinels is uncommon. This study explores the plausibility of predicting future asthma daily admissions using retrospective data in London (2005-2006). Negative binomial regressions were used in modeling; allowing the non-contiguous autoregressive components. Selected lags were based on partial autocorrelation function (PACF) plot with a maximum lag of 7 days. The model was contrasted with naïve historical and seasonal models. All models were cross validated. Mean daily asthma admission in 2005 was 27.9 and in 2006 it was 28.9. The lags 1, 2, 3, 6 and 7 were independently associated with daily asthma admissions based on their PACF plots. The lag model prediction of peak admissions were often slightly out of synchronization with the actual data, but the days of greater admissions were better matched than the days of lower admissions. A further investigation across various populations is necessary.
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