Displaying publications 61 - 80 of 212 in total

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  1. Reid HA
    Lancet, 1975 Mar 15;1(7907):622-3.
    PMID: 47960
    Among a series of 101 patients bitten by sea-snakes in Malaya in the years 1957-64, 80% were fishermen. Bathers and divers are occasionally bitten. Before sea-snake antivenom became available the mortality-rate (despite the high toxicity of sea-snake venom) was only 10%; however, of 11 with serious poisoning, 6 died. Subsequently 10 patients with serious poisoning received specific sea-snake antivenom; 2 patients, admitted moribund, temporarily improved but died, and 8 patients recovered dramatically. In serious poisoning the suitable dosage of intravenous sea-snake antivenom is 3000-10,000 units; in mild poisoning 1000-2000 units should suffice.
  2. Young G, Srivastava A, Kavakli K, Ross C, Sathar J, You CW, et al.
    Lancet, 2023 Mar 29.
    PMID: 37003287 DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(23)00284-2
    BACKGROUND: Fitusiran, a subcutaneous investigational small interfering RNA therapeutic, targets antithrombin to rebalance haemostasis in people with haemophilia A or haemophilia B, irrespective of inhibitor status. We evaluated the efficacy and safety of fitusiran prophylaxis in people with haemophilia A or haemophilia B with inhibitors.

    METHODS: This multicentre, randomised, open-label phase 3 study was done at 26 sites (primarily secondary or tertiary centres) in 12 countries. Men, boys, and young adults aged 12 years or older with severe haemophilia A or haemophilia B with inhibitors previously treated with on-demand bypassing agents were randomly assigned (2:1) to receive once-a-month 80 mg subcutaneous fitusiran prophylaxis (fitusiran prophylaxis group) or to continue with bypassing agents on-demand (bypassing agents on-demand group) for 9 months. The primary endpoint was mean annualised bleeding rate during the efficacy period in the intention-to-treat population estimated by negative binomial model. Safety was assessed as a secondary endpoint in the safety population. This trial is complete and is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03417102.

    FINDINGS: Between Feb 14, 2018, and June 23, 2021, 85 participants were screened for inclusion, of whom 57 (67%; 57 [100%] men; median age 27·0 years [IQR 19·5-33·5]) were randomly assigned: 19 (33%) participants to the bypassing agent on-demand group and 38 (67%) participants to the fitusiran prophylaxis. Negative binomial model-based mean annualised bleeding rate was significantly lower in the fitusiran prophylaxis group (1·7 [95% CI 1·0-2·7]) than in the bypassing agents on-demand group (18·1 [10·6-30·8]), corresponding to a 90·8% (95% CI 80·8-95·6) reduction in annualised bleeding rate in favour of fitusiran prophylaxis (p<0·0001). 25 (66%) participants had zero treated bleeds in the fitusiran prophylaxis group versus one (5%) in the bypassing agents on-demand group. The most frequent treatment-emergent adverse event in the fitusiran prophylaxis group was increased alanine aminotransferase in 13 (32%) of 41 participants in the safety population; there were no increased alanine aminotransferase treatment-emergent adverse events in the bypassing agents on-demand group. Suspected or confirmed thromboembolic events were reported in two (5%) participants in the fitusiran prophylaxis group. No deaths were reported.

    INTERPRETATION: Subcutaneous fitusiran prophylaxis resulted in statistically significant reductions in annualised bleeding rate in participants with haemophilia A or haemophilia B with inhibitors, with two-thirds of participants having zero bleeds. Fitusiran prophylaxis might show haemostatic efficacy in participants with haemophilia A or haemophilia B with inhibitors; therefore, the therapeutic might have the potential to improve the management of people with haemophilia.

    FUNDING: Sanofi.

  3. Noordin NM, Merican MI, Rahman HA, Lee SS, Ramly R
    Lancet, 2008 Sep 27;372(9644):1149-50.
    PMID: 18926274 DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(08)61479-8
  4. Dehghan M, Mente A, Rangarajan S, Sheridan P, Mohan V, Iqbal R, et al.
    Lancet, 2018 11 24;392(10161):2288-2297.
    PMID: 30217460 DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(18)31812-9
    BACKGROUND: Dietary guidelines recommend minimising consumption of whole-fat dairy products, as they are a source of saturated fats and presumed to adversely affect blood lipids and increase cardiovascular disease and mortality. Evidence for this contention is sparse and few data for the effects of dairy consumption on health are available from low-income and middle-income countries. Therefore, we aimed to assess the associations between total dairy and specific types of dairy products with mortality and major cardiovascular disease.

    METHODS: The Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study is a large multinational cohort study of individuals aged 35-70 years enrolled from 21 countries in five continents. Dietary intakes of dairy products for 136 384 individuals were recorded using country-specific validated food frequency questionnaires. Dairy products comprised milk, yoghurt, and cheese. We further grouped these foods into whole-fat and low-fat dairy. The primary outcome was the composite of mortality or major cardiovascular events (defined as death from cardiovascular causes, non-fatal myocardial infarction, stroke, or heart failure). Hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using multivariable Cox frailty models with random intercepts to account for clustering of participants by centre.

    FINDINGS: Between Jan 1, 2003, and July 14, 2018, we recorded 10 567 composite events (deaths [n=6796] or major cardiovascular events [n=5855]) during the 9·1 years of follow-up. Higher intake of total dairy (>2 servings per day compared with no intake) was associated with a lower risk of the composite outcome (HR 0·84, 95% CI 0·75-0·94; ptrend=0·0004), total mortality (0·83, 0·72-0·96; ptrend=0·0052), non-cardiovascular mortality (0·86, 0·72-1·02; ptrend=0·046), cardiovascular mortality (0·77, 0·58-1·01; ptrend=0·029), major cardiovascular disease (0·78, 0·67-0·90; ptrend=0·0001), and stroke (0·66, 0·53-0·82; ptrend=0·0003). No significant association with myocardial infarction was observed (HR 0·89, 95% CI 0·71-1·11; ptrend=0·163). Higher intake (>1 serving vs no intake) of milk (HR 0·90, 95% CI 0·82-0·99; ptrend=0·0529) and yogurt (0·86, 0·75-0·99; ptrend=0·0051) was associated with lower risk of the composite outcome, whereas cheese intake was not significantly associated with the composite outcome (0·88, 0·76-1·02; ptrend=0·1399). Butter intake was low and was not significantly associated with clinical outcomes (HR 1·09, 95% CI 0·90-1·33; ptrend=0·4113).

    INTERPRETATION: Dairy consumption was associated with lower risk of mortality and major cardiovascular disease events in a diverse multinational cohort.

    FUNDING: Full funding sources are listed at the end of the paper (see Acknowledgments).

  5. Dehghan M, Mente A, Zhang X, Swaminathan S, Li W, Mohan V, et al.
    Lancet, 2017 Nov 04;390(10107):2050-2062.
    PMID: 28864332 DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32252-3
    BACKGROUND: The relationship between macronutrients and cardiovascular disease and mortality is controversial. Most available data are from European and North American populations where nutrition excess is more likely, so their applicability to other populations is unclear.

    METHODS: The Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study is a large, epidemiological cohort study of individuals aged 35-70 years (enrolled between Jan 1, 2003, and March 31, 2013) in 18 countries with a median follow-up of 7·4 years (IQR 5·3-9·3). Dietary intake of 135 335 individuals was recorded using validated food frequency questionnaires. The primary outcomes were total mortality and major cardiovascular events (fatal cardiovascular disease, non-fatal myocardial infarction, stroke, and heart failure). Secondary outcomes were all myocardial infarctions, stroke, cardiovascular disease mortality, and non-cardiovascular disease mortality. Participants were categorised into quintiles of nutrient intake (carbohydrate, fats, and protein) based on percentage of energy provided by nutrients. We assessed the associations between consumption of carbohydrate, total fat, and each type of fat with cardiovascular disease and total mortality. We calculated hazard ratios (HRs) using a multivariable Cox frailty model with random intercepts to account for centre clustering.

    FINDINGS: During follow-up, we documented 5796 deaths and 4784 major cardiovascular disease events. Higher carbohydrate intake was associated with an increased risk of total mortality (highest [quintile 5] vs lowest quintile [quintile 1] category, HR 1·28 [95% CI 1·12-1·46], ptrend=0·0001) but not with the risk of cardiovascular disease or cardiovascular disease mortality. Intake of total fat and each type of fat was associated with lower risk of total mortality (quintile 5 vs quintile 1, total fat: HR 0·77 [95% CI 0·67-0·87], ptrend<0·0001; saturated fat, HR 0·86 [0·76-0·99], ptrend=0·0088; monounsaturated fat: HR 0·81 [0·71-0·92], ptrend<0·0001; and polyunsaturated fat: HR 0·80 [0·71-0·89], ptrend<0·0001). Higher saturated fat intake was associated with lower risk of stroke (quintile 5 vs quintile 1, HR 0·79 [95% CI 0·64-0·98], ptrend=0·0498). Total fat and saturated and unsaturated fats were not significantly associated with risk of myocardial infarction or cardiovascular disease mortality.

    INTERPRETATION: High carbohydrate intake was associated with higher risk of total mortality, whereas total fat and individual types of fat were related to lower total mortality. Total fat and types of fat were not associated with cardiovascular disease, myocardial infarction, or cardiovascular disease mortality, whereas saturated fat had an inverse association with stroke. Global dietary guidelines should be reconsidered in light of these findings.

    FUNDING: Full funding sources listed at the end of the paper (see Acknowledgments).

  6. Miller V, Mente A, Dehghan M, Rangarajan S, Zhang X, Swaminathan S, et al.
    Lancet, 2017 Nov 04;390(10107):2037-2049.
    PMID: 28864331 DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32253-5
    BACKGROUND: The association between intake of fruits, vegetables, and legumes with cardiovascular disease and deaths has been investigated extensively in Europe, the USA, Japan, and China, but little or no data are available from the Middle East, South America, Africa, or south Asia.

    METHODS: We did a prospective cohort study (Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology [PURE] in 135 335 individuals aged 35 to 70 years without cardiovascular disease from 613 communities in 18 low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries in seven geographical regions: North America and Europe, South America, the Middle East, south Asia, China, southeast Asia, and Africa. We documented their diet using country-specific food frequency questionnaires at baseline. Standardised questionnaires were used to collect information about demographic factors, socioeconomic status (education, income, and employment), lifestyle (smoking, physical activity, and alcohol intake), health history and medication use, and family history of cardiovascular disease. The follow-up period varied based on the date when recruitment began at each site or country. The main clinical outcomes were major cardiovascular disease (defined as death from cardiovascular causes and non-fatal myocardial infarction, stroke, and heart failure), fatal and non-fatal myocardial infarction, fatal and non-fatal strokes, cardiovascular mortality, non-cardiovascular mortality, and total mortality. Cox frailty models with random effects were used to assess associations between fruit, vegetable, and legume consumption with risk of cardiovascular disease events and mortality.

    FINDINGS: Participants were enrolled into the study between Jan 1, 2003, and March 31, 2013. For the current analysis, we included all unrefuted outcome events in the PURE study database through March 31, 2017. Overall, combined mean fruit, vegetable and legume intake was 3·91 (SD 2·77) servings per day. During a median 7·4 years (5·5-9·3) of follow-up, 4784 major cardiovascular disease events, 1649 cardiovascular deaths, and 5796 total deaths were documented. Higher total fruit, vegetable, and legume intake was inversely associated with major cardiovascular disease, myocardial infarction, cardiovascular mortality, non-cardiovascular mortality, and total mortality in the models adjusted for age, sex, and centre (random effect). The estimates were substantially attenuated in the multivariable adjusted models for major cardiovascular disease (hazard ratio [HR] 0·90, 95% CI 0·74-1·10, ptrend=0·1301), myocardial infarction (0·99, 0·74-1·31; ptrend=0·2033), stroke (0·92, 0·67-1·25; ptrend=0·7092), cardiovascular mortality (0·73, 0·53-1·02; ptrend=0·0568), non-cardiovascular mortality (0·84, 0·68-1·04; ptrend =0·0038), and total mortality (0·81, 0·68-0·96; ptrend<0·0001). The HR for total mortality was lowest for three to four servings per day (0·78, 95% CI 0·69-0·88) compared with the reference group, with no further apparent decrease in HR with higher consumption. When examined separately, fruit intake was associated with lower risk of cardiovascular, non-cardiovascular, and total mortality, while legume intake was inversely associated with non-cardiovascular death and total mortality (in fully adjusted models). For vegetables, raw vegetable intake was strongly associated with a lower risk of total mortality, whereas cooked vegetable intake showed a modest benefit against mortality.

    INTERPRETATION: Higher fruit, vegetable, and legume consumption was associated with a lower risk of non-cardiovascular, and total mortality. Benefits appear to be maximum for both non-cardiovascular mortality and total mortality at three to four servings per day (equivalent to 375-500 g/day).

    FUNDING: Full funding sources listed at the end of the paper (see Acknowledgments).

  7. Leong DP, Teo KK, Rangarajan S, Lopez-Jaramillo P, Avezum A, Orlandini A, et al.
    Lancet, 2015 Jul 18;386(9990):266-73.
    PMID: 25982160 DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)62000-6
    Reduced muscular strength, as measured by grip strength, has been associated with an increased risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Grip strength is appealing as a simple, quick, and inexpensive means of stratifying an individual's risk of cardiovascular death. However, the prognostic value of grip strength with respect to the number and range of populations and confounders is unknown. The aim of this study was to assess the independent prognostic importance of grip strength measurement in socioculturally and economically diverse countries.
  8. Rickard CM, Marsh NM, Larsen EN, McGrail MR, Graves N, Runnegar N, et al.
    Lancet, 2021 04 17;397(10283):1447-1458.
    PMID: 33865494 DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(21)00351-2
    BACKGROUND: The optimal duration of infusion set use to prevent life-threatening catheter-related bloodstream infection (CRBSI) is unclear. We aimed to compare the effectiveness and costs of 7-day (intervention) versus 4-day (control) infusion set replacement to prevent CRBSI in patients with central venous access devices (tunnelled cuffed, non-tunnelled, peripherally inserted, and totally implanted) and peripheral arterial catheters.

    METHODS: We did a randomised, controlled, assessor-masked trial at ten Australian hospitals. Our hypothesis was CRBSI equivalence for central venous access devices and non-inferiority for peripheral arterial catheters (both 2% margin). Adults and children with expected greater than 24 h central venous access device-peripheral arterial catheter use were randomly assigned (1:1; stratified by hospital, catheter type, and intensive care unit or ward) by a centralised, web-based service (concealed before allocation) to infusion set replacement every 7 days, or 4 days. This included crystalloids, non-lipid parenteral nutrition, and medication infusions. Patients and clinicians were not masked, but the primary outcome (CRBSI) was adjudicated by masked infectious diseases physicians. The analysis was modified intention to treat (mITT). This study is registered with the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12610000505000 and is complete.

    FINDINGS: Between May 30, 2011, and Dec, 9, 2016, from 6007 patients assessed, we assigned 2944 patients to 7-day (n=1463) or 4-day (n=1481) infusion set replacement, with 2941 in the mITT analysis. For central venous access devices, 20 (1·78%) of 1124 patients (7-day group) and 16 (1·46%) of 1097 patients (4-day group) had CRBSI (absolute risk difference [ARD] 0·32%, 95% CI -0·73 to 1·37). For peripheral arterial catheters, one (0·28%) of 357 patients in the 7-day group and none of 363 patients in the 4-day group had CRBSI (ARD 0·28%, -0·27% to 0·83%). There were no treatment-related adverse events.

    INTERPRETATION: Infusion set use can be safely extended to 7 days with resultant cost and workload reductions.

    FUNDING: Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.

  9. Khoo EM, Li D, Ungan M, Jordan R, Pinnock H
    Lancet, 2021 08 07;398(10299):488-489.
    PMID: 34364520 DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(21)01230-7
  10. Hamid M, Bustamante-Manaog T, Truong VD, Akkhavong K, Fu H, Ma Y, et al.
    Lancet, 2005 Nov 19;366(9499):1758-60.
    PMID: 16298204 DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(05)67709-4
  11. Mente A, O'Donnell M, Rangarajan S, Dagenais G, Lear S, McQueen M, et al.
    Lancet, 2016 Jul 30;388(10043):465-75.
    PMID: 27216139 DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)30467-6
    BACKGROUND: Several studies reported a U-shaped association between urinary sodium excretion and cardiovascular disease events and mortality. Whether these associations vary between those individuals with and without hypertension is uncertain. We aimed to explore whether the association between sodium intake and cardiovascular disease events and all-cause mortality is modified by hypertension status.

    METHODS: In this pooled analysis, we studied 133,118 individuals (63,559 with hypertension and 69,559 without hypertension), median age of 55 years (IQR 45-63), from 49 countries in four large prospective studies and estimated 24-h urinary sodium excretion (as group-level measure of intake). We related this to the composite outcome of death and major cardiovascular disease events over a median of 4.2 years (IQR 3.0-5.0) and blood pressure.

    FINDINGS: Increased sodium intake was associated with greater increases in systolic blood pressure in individuals with hypertension (2.08 mm Hg change per g sodium increase) compared with individuals without hypertension (1.22 mm Hg change per g; pinteraction<0.0001). In those individuals with hypertension (6835 events), sodium excretion of 7 g/day or more (7060 [11%] of population with hypertension: hazard ratio [HR] 1.23 [95% CI 1.11-1.37]; p<0.0001) and less than 3 g/day (7006 [11%] of population with hypertension: 1.34 [1.23-1.47]; p<0.0001) were both associated with increased risk compared with sodium excretion of 4-5 g/day (reference 25% of the population with hypertension). In those individuals without hypertension (3021 events), compared with 4-5 g/day (18,508 [27%] of the population without hypertension), higher sodium excretion was not associated with risk of the primary composite outcome (≥ 7 g/day in 6271 [9%] of the population without hypertension; HR 0.90 [95% CI 0.76-1.08]; p=0.2547), whereas an excretion of less than 3 g/day was associated with a significantly increased risk (7547 [11%] of the population without hypertension; HR 1.26 [95% CI 1.10-1.45]; p=0.0009).

    INTERPRETATION: Compared with moderate sodium intake, high sodium intake is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular events and death in hypertensive populations (no association in normotensive population), while the association of low sodium intake with increased risk of cardiovascular events and death is observed in those with or without hypertension. These data suggest that lowering sodium intake is best targeted at populations with hypertension who consume high sodium diets.

    FUNDING: Full funding sources listed at end of paper (see Acknowledgments).

  12. Khatib R, McKee M, Shannon H, Chow C, Rangarajan S, Teo K, et al.
    Lancet, 2016 Jan 2;387(10013):61-9.
    PMID: 26498706 DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(15)00469-9
    BACKGROUND: WHO has targeted that medicines to prevent recurrent cardiovascular disease be available in 80% of communities and used by 50% of eligible individuals by 2025. We have previously reported that use of these medicines is very low, but now aim to assess how such low use relates to their lack of availability or poor affordability.
    METHODS: We analysed information about availability and costs of cardiovascular disease medicines (aspirin, β blockers, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors, and statins) in pharmacies gathered from 596 communities in 18 countries participating in the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study. Medicines were considered available if present at the pharmacy when surveyed, and affordable if their combined cost was less than 20% of household capacity-to-pay. We compared results from high-income, upper middle-income, lower middle-income, and low-income countries. Data from India were presented separately given its large, generic pharmaceutical industry.
    FINDINGS: Communities were recruited between Jan 1, 2003, and Dec 31, 2013. All four cardiovascular disease medicines were available in 61 (95%) of 64 urban and 27 (90%) of 30 rural communities in high-income countries, 53 (80%) of 66 urban and 43 (73%) of 59 rural communities in upper middle-income countries, 69 (62%) of 111 urban and 42 (37%) of 114 rural communities in lower middle-income countries, eight (25%) of 32 urban and one (3%) of 30 rural communities in low-income countries (excluding India), and 34 (89%) of 38 urban and 42 (81%) of 52 rural communities in India. The four cardiovascular disease medicines were potentially unaffordable for 0·14% of households in high-income countries (14 of 9934 households), 25% of upper middle-income countries (6299 of 24,776), 33% of lower middle-income countries (13,253 of 40,023), 60% of low-income countries (excluding India; 1976 of 3312), and 59% households in India (9939 of 16,874). In low-income and middle-income countries, patients with previous cardiovascular disease were less likely to use all four medicines if fewer than four were available (odds ratio [OR] 0·16, 95% CI 0·04-0·57). In communities in which all four medicines were available, patients were less likely to use medicines if the household potentially could not afford them (0·16, 0·04-0·55).
    INTERPRETATION: Secondary prevention medicines are unavailable and unaffordable for a large proportion of communities and households in upper middle-income, lower middle-income, and low-income countries, which have very low use of these medicines. Improvements to the availability and affordability of key medicines is likely to enhance their use and help towards achieving WHO's targets of 50% use of key medicines by 2025.
    FUNDING: Population Health Research Institute, the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Heart and Stroke Foundation of Ontario, AstraZeneca (Canada), Sanofi-Aventis (France and Canada), Boehringer Ingelheim (Germany and Canada), Servier, GlaxoSmithKline, Novartis, King Pharma, and national or local organisations in participating countries.
  13. Peters MJ, Gould DW, Ray S, Thomas K, Chang I, Orzol M, et al.
    Lancet, 2024 Jan 27;403(10424):355-364.
    PMID: 38048787 DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(23)01968-2
    BACKGROUND: The optimal target for systemic oxygenation in critically ill children is unknown. Liberal oxygenation is widely practiced, but has been associated with harm in paediatric patients. We aimed to evaluate whether conservative oxygenation would reduce duration of organ support or incidence of death compared to standard care.

    METHODS: Oxy-PICU was a pragmatic, multicentre, open-label, randomised controlled trial in 15 UK paediatric intensive care units (PICUs). Children admitted as an emergency, who were older than 38 weeks corrected gestational age and younger than 16 years receiving invasive ventilation and supplemental oxygen were randomly allocated in a 1:1 ratio via a concealed, central, web-based randomisation system to conservative peripheral oxygen saturations ([SpO2] 88-92%) or liberal (SpO2 >94%) targets. The primary outcome was the duration of organ support at 30 days following random allocation, a rank-based endpoint with death either on or before day 30 as the worst outcome (a score equating to 31 days of organ support), with survivors assigned a score between 1 and 30 depending on the number of calendar days of organ support received. The primary effect estimate was the probabilistic index, a value greater than 0·5 indicating more than 50% probability that conservative oxygenation is superior to liberal oxygenation for a randomly selected patient. All participants in whom consent was available were included in the intention-to-treat analysis. The completed study was registered with the ISRCTN registry (ISRCTN92103439).

    FINDINGS: Between Sept 1, 2020, and May 15, 2022, 2040 children were randomly allocated to conservative or liberal oxygenation groups. Consent was available for 1872 (92%) of 2040 children. The conservative oxygenation group comprised 939 children (528 [57%] of 927 were female and 399 [43%] of 927 were male) and the liberal oxygenation group included 933 children (511 [56%] of 920 were female and 409 [45%] of 920 were male). Duration of organ support or death in the first 30 days was significantly lower in the conservative oxygenation group (probabilistic index 0·53, 95% CI 0·50-0·55; p=0·04 Wilcoxon rank-sum test, adjusted odds ratio 0·84 [95% CI 0·72-0·99]). Prespecified adverse events were reported in 24 (3%) of 939 patients in the conservative oxygenation group and 36 (4%) of 933 patients in the liberal oxygenation group.

    INTERPRETATION: Among invasively ventilated children who were admitted as an emergency to a PICU receiving supplemental oxygen, a conservative oxygenation target resulted in a small, but significant, greater probability of a better outcome in terms of duration of organ support at 30 days or death when compared with a liberal oxygenation target. Widespread adoption of a conservative oxygenation saturation target (SpO2 88-92%) could help improve outcomes and reduce costs for the sickest children admitted to PICUs.

    FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health and Care Research Health Technology Assessment Programme.

  14. Olaleye SO, Aroyewun TF, Osman RA
    Lancet, 2023 Sep 09;402(10405):848-849.
    PMID: 37689405 DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(23)01697-5
  15. Smith RD, Correa C, Oh C
    Lancet, 2009 Feb 21;373(9664):684-91.
    PMID: 19167054 DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(08)61779-1
    The World Trade Organization's Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) set global minimum standards for the protection of intellectual property, substantially increasing and expanding intellectual-property rights, and generated clear gains for the pharmaceutical industry and the developed world. The question of whether TRIPS generates gains for developing countries, in the form of increased exports, is addressed in this paper through consideration of the importance of pharmaceuticals in health-care trade, outlining the essential requirements, implications, and issues related to TRIPS, and TRIPS-plus, in which increased restrictions are imposed as part of bilateral free-trade agreements. TRIPS has not generated substantial gains for developing countries, but has further increased pharmaceutical trade in developed countries. The unequal trade between developed and developing countries (ie, exporting and importing high-value patented drugs, respectively) raises the issue of access to medicines, which is exacerbated by TRIPS-plus provisions, although many countries have not even enacted provision for TRIPS flexibilities. Therefore this paper focuses on options that are available to the health community for negotiation to their advantage under TRIPS, and within the presence of TRIPS-plus.
  16. Masood M, Masood Y, Reidpath DD, Newton T
    Lancet, 2014 Jun 14;383(9934):2046.
    PMID: 24931691 DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60996-X
  17. NUNN JF
    Lancet, 1954 Feb 13;266(6807):361-3.
    PMID: 13131861
  18. NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC)
    Lancet, 2020 Nov 07;396(10261):1511-1524.
    PMID: 33160572 DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)31859-6
    BACKGROUND: Comparable global data on health and nutrition of school-aged children and adolescents are scarce. We aimed to estimate age trajectories and time trends in mean height and mean body-mass index (BMI), which measures weight gain beyond what is expected from height gain, for school-aged children and adolescents.

    METHODS: For this pooled analysis, we used a database of cardiometabolic risk factors collated by the Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factor Collaboration. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1985 to 2019 in mean height and mean BMI in 1-year age groups for ages 5-19 years. The model allowed for non-linear changes over time in mean height and mean BMI and for non-linear changes with age of children and adolescents, including periods of rapid growth during adolescence.

    FINDINGS: We pooled data from 2181 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in 65 million participants in 200 countries and territories. In 2019, we estimated a difference of 20 cm or higher in mean height of 19-year-old adolescents between countries with the tallest populations (the Netherlands, Montenegro, Estonia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina for boys; and the Netherlands, Montenegro, Denmark, and Iceland for girls) and those with the shortest populations (Timor-Leste, Laos, Solomon Islands, and Papua New Guinea for boys; and Guatemala, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Timor-Leste for girls). In the same year, the difference between the highest mean BMI (in Pacific island countries, Kuwait, Bahrain, The Bahamas, Chile, the USA, and New Zealand for both boys and girls and in South Africa for girls) and lowest mean BMI (in India, Bangladesh, Timor-Leste, Ethiopia, and Chad for boys and girls; and in Japan and Romania for girls) was approximately 9-10 kg/m2. In some countries, children aged 5 years started with healthier height or BMI than the global median and, in some cases, as healthy as the best performing countries, but they became progressively less healthy compared with their comparators as they grew older by not growing as tall (eg, boys in Austria and Barbados, and girls in Belgium and Puerto Rico) or gaining too much weight for their height (eg, girls and boys in Kuwait, Bahrain, Fiji, Jamaica, and Mexico; and girls in South Africa and New Zealand). In other countries, growing children overtook the height of their comparators (eg, Latvia, Czech Republic, Morocco, and Iran) or curbed their weight gain (eg, Italy, France, and Croatia) in late childhood and adolescence. When changes in both height and BMI were considered, girls in South Korea, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and some central Asian countries (eg, Armenia and Azerbaijan), and boys in central and western Europe (eg, Portugal, Denmark, Poland, and Montenegro) had the healthiest changes in anthropometric status over the past 3·5 decades because, compared with children and adolescents in other countries, they had a much larger gain in height than they did in BMI. The unhealthiest changes-gaining too little height, too much weight for their height compared with children in other countries, or both-occurred in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, New Zealand, and the USA for boys and girls; in Malaysia and some Pacific island nations for boys; and in Mexico for girls.

    INTERPRETATION: The height and BMI trajectories over age and time of school-aged children and adolescents are highly variable across countries, which indicates heterogeneous nutritional quality and lifelong health advantages and risks.

    FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, AstraZeneca Young Health Programme, EU.

  19. Wang H, Liddell CA, Coates MM, Mooney MD, Levitz CE, Schumacher AE, et al.
    Lancet, 2014 Sep 13;384(9947):957-79.
    PMID: 24797572 DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60497-9
    BACKGROUND: Remarkable financial and political efforts have been focused on the reduction of child mortality during the past few decades. Timely measurements of levels and trends in under-5 mortality are important to assess progress towards the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) target of reduction of child mortality by two thirds from 1990 to 2015, and to identify models of success.

    METHODS: We generated updated estimates of child mortality in early neonatal (age 0-6 days), late neonatal (7-28 days), postneonatal (29-364 days), childhood (1-4 years), and under-5 (0-4 years) age groups for 188 countries from 1970 to 2013, with more than 29,000 survey, census, vital registration, and sample registration datapoints. We used Gaussian process regression with adjustments for bias and non-sampling error to synthesise the data for under-5 mortality for each country, and a separate model to estimate mortality for more detailed age groups. We used explanatory mixed effects regression models to assess the association between under-5 mortality and income per person, maternal education, HIV child death rates, secular shifts, and other factors. To quantify the contribution of these different factors and birth numbers to the change in numbers of deaths in under-5 age groups from 1990 to 2013, we used Shapley decomposition. We used estimated rates of change between 2000 and 2013 to construct under-5 mortality rate scenarios out to 2030.

    FINDINGS: We estimated that 6·3 million (95% UI 6·0-6·6) children under-5 died in 2013, a 64% reduction from 17·6 million (17·1-18·1) in 1970. In 2013, child mortality rates ranged from 152·5 per 1000 livebirths (130·6-177·4) in Guinea-Bissau to 2·3 (1·8-2·9) per 1000 in Singapore. The annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2013 ranged from -6·8% to 0·1%. 99 of 188 countries, including 43 of 48 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, had faster decreases in child mortality during 2000-13 than during 1990-2000. In 2013, neonatal deaths accounted for 41·6% of under-5 deaths compared with 37·4% in 1990. Compared with 1990, in 2013, rising numbers of births, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, led to 1·4 million more child deaths, and rising income per person and maternal education led to 0·9 million and 2·2 million fewer deaths, respectively. Changes in secular trends led to 4·2 million fewer deaths. Unexplained factors accounted for only -1% of the change in child deaths. In 30 developing countries, decreases since 2000 have been faster than predicted attributable to income, education, and secular shift alone.

    INTERPRETATION: Only 27 developing countries are expected to achieve MDG 4. Decreases since 2000 in under-5 mortality rates are accelerating in many developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. The Millennium Declaration and increased development assistance for health might have been a factor in faster decreases in some developing countries. Without further accelerated progress, many countries in west and central Africa will still have high levels of under-5 mortality in 2030.

    FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, US Agency for International Development.

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