PATIENTS AND METHODS: A retrospective study was conducted based on incident lung cancer cases diagnosed between 2017 and 2019 in Lampang (Thailand), Penang (Malaysia), Singapore and Yogyakarta (Indonesia). Cases (n = 3413) were defined using the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology third edition. In Singapore, a clinical series obtained from the National Cancer Centre was used to identify patients, while corresponding population-based cancer registries were used elsewhere. Tumor and clinical information were abstracted by chart review according to a predefined study protocol. Molecular testing of epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR), anaplastic lymphoma kinase (ALK) gene rearrangement, ROS1 gene rearrangement and BRAF V600 mutation was recorded.

RESULTS: Among 2962 cases with a specified pathological diagnosis (86.8%), most patients had non-squamous NSCLC (75.8%). For cases with staging information (92.1%), the majority presented with metastatic disease (71.3%). Overall, molecular testing rates in the 1528 patients with stage IV non-squamous NSCLC were 67.0% for EGFR, 42.3% for ALK, 39.1% for ROS1, 7.8% for BRAF and 36.1% for PD-L1. Among these patients, first-line systemic treatment included chemotherapy (25.9%), targeted therapy (35.6%) and immunotherapy (5.9%), with 31% of patients having no record of antitumor treatment. Molecular testing and the proportion of patients receiving treatment were highly heterogenous between the regions.

METHODS: Novel LMIC radiotherapy demand and outcome models were created by adjusting previously developed models that used HIC cancer staging data. These models were applied to the cancer case mix (ie, the incidence of each different cancer) in each LMIC in the Asia-Pacific region to estimate the current and projected optimal radiotherapy utilisation rate (ie, the proportion of cancer cases that would require radiotherapy on the basis of guideline recommendations), and to estimate the number of megavoltage machines needed in each country to meet this demand. Information on the number of megavoltage machines available in each country was retrieved from the Directory of Radiotherapy Centres. Gaps were determined by comparing the projected number of megavoltage machines needed with the number of machines available in each region. Megavoltage machine numbers, local control, and overall survival benefits were compared with previous data from 2012 and projected data for 2040.

FINDINGS: 57 countries within the Asia-Pacific region were included in the analysis with 9·48 million new cases of cancer in 2020, an increase of 2·66 million from 2012. Local control was 7·42% and overall survival was 3·05%. Across the Asia-Pacific overall, the current optimal radiotherapy utilisation rate is 49·10%, which means that 4·66 million people will need radiotherapy in 2020, an increase of 1·38 million (42%) from 2012. The number of megavoltage machines increased by 1261 (31%) between 2012 and 2020, but the demand for these machines increased by 3584 (42%). The Asia-Pacific region only has 43·9% of the megavoltage machines needed to meet demand, ranging from 9·9-40·5% in LMICs compared with 67·9% in HICs. 12 000 additional megavoltage machines will be needed to meet the projected demand for 2040.

INTERPRETATION: The difference between supply and demand with regard to megavoltage machine availability has continued to widen in LMICs over the past decade and is projected to worsen by 2040. The data from this study can be used to provide evidence for the need to incorporate radiotherapy in national cancer control plans and to inform governments and policy makers within the Asia-Pacific region regarding the urgent need for investment in this sector.