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  1. Coudeville L, Baurin N, L'Azou M, Guy B
    Vaccine, 2016 12 07;34(50):6426-6435.
    PMID: 27601343 DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2016.08.050
    BACKGROUND: A tetravalent dengue vaccine demonstrated its protective efficacy in two phase III efficacy studies. Results from these studies were used to derive vaccination impact in the five Asian (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam) and the five Latin American countries (Brazil, Colombia, Honduras, Mexico and Puerto Rico) participating in these trials.

    METHODS: Vaccination impact was investigated with an age-structured, host-vector, serotype-specific compartmental model. Parameters related to vaccine efficacy and levels of dengue transmission were estimated using data collected during the phase III efficacy studies. Several vaccination programs, including routine vaccination at different ages with and without large catch-up campaigns, were investigated.

    RESULTS: All vaccination programs explored translated into significant reductions in dengue cases at the population level over the first 10years following vaccine introduction and beyond. The most efficient age for vaccination varied according to transmission intensity and 9years was close to the most efficient age across all settings. The combination of routine vaccination and large catch-up campaigns was found to enable a rapid reduction of dengue burden after vaccine introduction.

    CONCLUSION: Our analysis suggests that dengue vaccination can significantly reduce the public health impact of dengue in countries where the disease is endemic.

  2. Zeng W, Halasa-Rappel YA, Baurin N, Coudeville L, Shepard DS
    Vaccine, 2018 01 08;36(3):413-420.
    PMID: 29229427 DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2017.11.064
    Following publication of results from two phase-3 clinical trials in 10 countries or territories, endemic countries began licensing the first dengue vaccine in 2015. Using a published mathematical model, we evaluated the cost-effectiveness of dengue vaccination in populations similar to those at the trial sites in those same Latin American and Asian countries. Our main scenarios (30-year horizon, 80% coverage) entailed 3-dose routine vaccinations costing US$20/dose beginning at age 9, potentially supplemented by catch-up programs of 4- or 8-year cohorts. We obtained illness costs per case, dengue mortality, vaccine wastage, and vaccine administration costs from the literature. We estimated that routine vaccination would reduce yearly direct and indirect illness cost per capita by 22% (from US$10.51 to US$8.17) in the Latin American countries and by 23% (from US$5.78 to US$4.44) in the Asian countries. Using a health system perspective, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) averaged US$4,216/disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted in the five Latin American countries (range: US$666/DALY in Puerto Rico to US$5,865/DALY in Mexico). In the five Asian countries, the ICER averaged US$3,751/DALY (range: US$1,935/DALY in Malaysia to US$5,101/DALY in the Philippines). From a health system perspective, the vaccine proved to be highly cost effective (ICER under one times the per capita GDP) in seven countries and cost effective (ICER 1-3 times the per capita GDP) in the remaining three countries. From a societal perspective, routine vaccination proved cost-saving in three countries. Including catch-up campaigns gave similar ICERs. Thus, this vaccine could have a favorable economic value in sites similar to those in the trials.
  3. Shafie AA, Yeo HY, Coudeville L, Steinberg L, Gill BS, Jahis R, et al.
    Pharmacoeconomics, 2017 May;35(5):575-589.
    PMID: 28205150 DOI: 10.1007/s40273-017-0487-3
    BACKGROUND: Dengue disease poses a great economic burden in Malaysia.

    METHODS: This study evaluated the cost effectiveness and impact of dengue vaccination in Malaysia from both provider and societal perspectives using a dynamic transmission mathematical model. The model incorporated sensitivity analyses, Malaysia-specific data, evidence from recent phase III studies and pooled efficacy and long-term safety data to refine the estimates from previous published studies. Unit costs were valued in $US, year 2013 values.

    RESULTS: Six vaccination programmes employing a three-dose schedule were identified as the most likely programmes to be implemented. In all programmes, vaccination produced positive benefits expressed as reductions in dengue cases, dengue-related deaths, life-years lost, disability-adjusted life-years and dengue treatment costs. Instead of incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), we evaluated the cost effectiveness of the programmes by calculating the threshold prices for a highly cost-effective strategy [ICER <1 × gross domestic product (GDP) per capita] and a cost-effective strategy (ICER between 1 and 3 × GDP per capita). We found that vaccination may be cost effective up to a price of $US32.39 for programme 6 (highly cost effective up to $US14.15) and up to a price of $US100.59 for programme 1 (highly cost effective up to $US47.96) from the provider perspective. The cost-effectiveness analysis is sensitive to under-reporting, vaccine protection duration and model time horizon.

    CONCLUSION: Routine vaccination for a population aged 13 years with a catch-up cohort aged 14-30 years in targeted hotspot areas appears to be the best-value strategy among those investigated. Dengue vaccination is a potentially good investment if the purchaser can negotiate a price at or below the cost-effective threshold price.

  4. Lam SK, Burke D, Capeding MR, Chong CK, Coudeville L, Farrar J, et al.
    Vaccine, 2011 Nov 28;29(51):9417-22.
    PMID: 21864627 DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2011.08.047
    Infection with dengue virus is a major public health problem in the Asia-Pacific region and throughout tropical and sub-tropical regions of the world. Vaccination represents a major opportunity to control dengue and several candidate vaccines are in development. Experts in dengue and in vaccine introduction gathered for a two day meeting during which they examined the challenges inherent to the introduction of a dengue vaccine into the national immunisation programmes of countries of the Asia-Pacific. The aim was to develop a series of recommendations to reduce the delay between vaccine licensure and vaccine introduction. Major recommendations arising from the meeting included: ascertaining and publicising the full burden and cost of dengue; changing the perception of dengue in non-endemic countries to help generate global support for dengue vaccination; ensuring high quality active surveillance systems and diagnostics; and identifying sustainable sources of funding, both to support vaccine introduction and to maintain the vaccination programme. The attendees at the meeting were in agreement that with the introduction of an effective vaccine, dengue is a disease that could be controlled, and that in order to ensure a vaccine is introduced as rapidly as possible, there is a need to start preparing now.
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