The snow leopard (Panthera uncia) inhabits one of the most challenging environments on Earth, referred to as the 'third pole'. Only a fraction of its vast range has been explored thus far, owing to myriad of barriers inflicted by the remote terrain and socio-ecological realities of the landscapes. Understanding distribution patterns of species is essential to devise practical management measures. This study aimed to understand the distribution pattern and factors influencing occupancy of snow leopard in the Pamir Mountain range through sign-based occupancy modelling. Our study confirmed that the Pamir range is a snow leopard stronghold, with occupancy estimated at 0.57 ± 0.02. The topographic features positively influenced the detection probability (p = 0.37 ± 0.005) of snow leopards. Occupancy was influenced by mean annual precipitation (β = -6.12 ± 1.8), density of roads (β = -1.61 ± 0.6) and water sources (β = 0.74 ± 0.4). Our findings underpin that sign-based distribution surveys provide vigorous scientific knowledge about elusive species and merit replication being used for other species. We propose to redefine the protected area boundaries based on ecological knowledge and encourage transboundary cooperation to safeguard snow leopards at a landscape scale.
Although neglected, the mite Sarcoptes scabiei is an unpredictable emerging parasite, threatening human and animal health globally. In this paper we report the first fatal outbreak of sarcoptic mange in the endangered Himalayan lynx (Lynx lynx isabellinus) from Pakistan. A 10-year-old male Himalayan lynx was found in a miserable condition with severe crusted lesions in Chitral District, and immediately died. Post-mortem examination determined high S. scabiei density (1309 mites/cm(2) skin). It is most probably a genuine emergence, resulting from a new incidence due to the host-taxon derived or prey-to-predator cross-infestation hypotheses, and less probable to be apparent emergence resulting from increased infection in the Himalayan lynx population. This is an alarming situation for the conservation of this already threatened population, which demands surveillance for early detection and eventually rescue and treatment of the affected Himalayan lynx.
Habitat suitability models are useful to understand species distribution and to guide management and conservation strategies. The grey wolf (Canis lupus) has been extirpated from most of its historic range in Pakistan primarily due to its impact on livestock and livelihoods. We used non-invasive survey data from camera traps and genetic sampling to develop a habitat suitability model for C. lupus in northern Pakistan and to explore the extent of connectivity among populations. We detected suitable habitat of grey wolf using a maximum entropy approach (Maxent ver. 3.4.0) and identified suitable movement corridors using the Circuitscape 4.0 tool. Our model showed high levels of predictive performances, as seen from the values of area under curve (0.971±0.002) and true skill statistics (0.886±0.021). The main predictors for habitat suitability for C. lupus were distances to road, mean temperature of the wettest quarter and distance to river. The model predicted ca. 23,129 km2 of suitable areas for wolf in Pakistan, with much of suitable habitat in remote and inaccessible areas that appeared to be well connected through vulnerable movement corridors. These movement corridors suggest that potentially the wolf range can expand in Pakistan's Northern Areas. However, managing protected areas with stringent restrictions is challenging in northern Pakistan, in part due to heavy dependence of people on natural resources. The habitat suitability map provided by this study can inform future management strategies by helping authorities to identify key conservation areas.
Pakistan's total estimated snow leopard habitat is about 80,000 km2 of which about half is considered prime habitat. However, this preliminary demarcation was not always in close agreement with the actual distribution-the discrepancy may be huge at the local and regional level. Recent technological developments like camera trapping and molecular genetics allow for collecting reliable presence records that could be used to construct realistic species distribution based on empirical data and advanced mathematical approaches like MaxEnt. The current study followed this approach to construct an accurate distribution of the species in Pakistan. Moreover, movement corridors, among different landscapes, were also identified through circuit theory. The probability of habitat suitability, generated from 98 presence points and 11 environmental variables, scored the snow leopard's assumed range in Pakistan, from 0 to 0.97. A large portion of the known range represented low-quality habitat, including areas in lower Chitral, Swat, Astore, and Kashmir. Conversely, Khunjerab, Misgar, Chapursan, Qurumber, Broghil, and Central Karakoram represented high-quality habitats. Variables with higher contributions in the MaxEnt model were precipitation during the driest month (34%), annual mean temperature (19.5%), mean diurnal range of temperature (9.8%), annual precipitation (9.4%), and river density (9.2). The model was validated through receiver operating characteristic (ROC) plots and defined thresholds. The average test AUC in Maxent for the replicate runs was 0.933 while the value of AUC by ROC curve calculated at 0.15 threshold was 1.00. These validation tests suggested a good model fit and strong predictive power. The connectivity analysis revealed that the population in the Hindukush landscape appears to be more connected with the population in Afghanistan as compared to other populations in Pakistan. Similarly, the Pamir-Karakoram population is better connected with China and Tajikistan, while the Himalayan population was connected with the population in India. Based on our findings we propose three model landscapes to be considered under the Global Snow Leopard Ecosystem Protection Program (GSLEP) agenda as regional priority areas, to safeguard the future of the snow leopard in Pakistan and the region. These landscapes fall within mountain ranges of the Himalaya, Hindu Kush and Karakoram-Pamir, respectively. We also identified gaps in the existing protected areas network and suggest new protected areas in Chitral and Gilgit-Baltistan to protect critical habitats of snow leopard in Pakistan.