OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to investigate the association between human mobility and COVID-19 infections across space and time during the transition period of shifting strategies from restrictions to normal living in Southeast Asia. Our research results have significant implications for evidence-based policymaking at the present of the COVID-19 pandemic and other public health issues.
METHODS: We aggregated weekly average human mobility data derived from the Facebook origin and destination Movement dataset. and weekly average new cases of COVID-19 at the district level from 01-Jun-2021 to 26-Dec-2021 (a total of 30 weeks). We mapped the spatiotemporal dynamics of human mobility and COVID-19 cases across countries in SEA. We further adopted the Geographically and Temporally Weighted Regression model to identify the spatiotemporal variations of the association between human mobility and COVID-19 infections over 30 weeks. Our model also controls for socioeconomic status, vaccination, and stringency of intervention to better identify the impact of human mobility on COVID-19 spread.
RESULTS: The percentage of districts that presented a statistically significant association between human mobility and COVID-19 infections generally decreased from 96.15% in week 1 to 90.38% in week 30, indicating a gradual disconnection between human mobility and COVID-19 spread. Over the study period, the average coefficients in 7 SEA countries increased, decreased, and finally kept stable. The association between human mobility and COVID-19 spread also presents spatial heterogeneity where higher coefficients were mainly concentrated in districts of Indonesia from week 1 to week 10 (ranging from 0.336 to 0.826), while lower coefficients were mainly located in districts of Vietnam (ranging from 0.044 to 0.130). From week 10 to week 25, higher coefficients were mainly observed in Singapore, Malaysia, Brunei, north Indonesia, and several districts of the Philippines. Despite the association showing a general weakening trend over time, significant positive coefficients were observed in Singapore, Malaysia, western Indonesia, and the Philippines, with the relatively highest coefficients observed in the Philippines in week 30 (ranging from 0.101 to 0.139).
CONCLUSIONS: The loosening interventions in response to COVID-19 in SEA countries during the second half of 2021 led to diverse changes in human mobility over time, which may result in the COVID-19 infection dynamics. This study investigated the association between mobility and infections at the regional level during the special transitional period. Our study has important implications for public policy interventions, especially at the later stage of a public health crisis.
METHODS: Parameters influencing corticosteroid (CS) dosing were identified (step 1). Data from children with proliferative LN were used to generate patient profiles (step 2). Physicians rated changes in renal and extrarenal childhood-onset SLE activity between 2 consecutive visits and proposed CS dosing (step 3). The SSR was developed using patient profile ratings (step 4), with refinements achieved in a physician focus group (step 5). A second type of patient profile describing the course of childhood-onset SLE for ≥4 months since kidney biopsy was rated to validate the SSR-recommended oral and intravenous (IV) CS dosages (step 6). Patient profile adjudication was based on majority ratings for both renal and extrarenal disease courses, and consensus level was set at 80%.
RESULTS: Degree of proteinuria, estimated glomerular filtration rate, changes in renal and extrarenal disease activity, and time since kidney biopsy influenced CS dosing (steps 1 and 2). Considering these parameters in 5,056 patient profile ratings from 103 raters, and renal and extrarenal course definitions, CS dosing rules of the SSR were developed (steps 3-5). Validation of the SSR for up to 6 months post-kidney biopsy was achieved with 1,838 patient profile ratings from 60 raters who achieved consensus for oral and IV CS dosage in accordance with the SSR (step 6).
CONCLUSION: The SSR represents an international consensus on CS dosing for use in patients with childhood-onset SLE and proliferative LN. The SSR is anticipated to be used for clinical care and to standardize CS dosage during clinical trials.