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  1. Chen WS, Tan JH, Mohamad Y, Imran R
    Injury, 2019 May;50(5):1118-1124.
    PMID: 30591225 DOI: 10.1016/j.injury.2018.12.031
    BACKGROUND: The establishment of an accurate prognostic model in major trauma patients is important mainly because this group of patients will benefit the most. Clinical prediction models must be validated internally and externally on a regular basis to ensure the prediction is accurate and current. This study aims to externally validate two prediction models, the Trauma and Injury Severity Score model developed using the Major Trauma Outcome Study in North America (MTOS-TRISS model), and the NTrD-TRISS model, which is a refined MTOS-TRISS model with coefficients derived from the Malaysian National Trauma Database (NTrD), by regarding mortality as the outcome measurement.

    METHOD: This retrospective study included patients with major trauma injuries reported to a trauma centre of Hospital Sultanah Aminah over a 6-year period from 2011 and 2017. Model validation was examined using the measures of discrimination and calibration. Discrimination was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and 95% confidence interval (CI). The Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) goodness-of-fit test was used to examine calibration capabilities. The predictive validity of both MTOS-TRISS and NTrD-TRISS models were further evaluated by incorporating parameters such as the New Injury Severity Scale and the Injury Severity Score.

    RESULTS: Total patients of 3788 (3434 blunt and 354 penetrating injuries) with average age of 37 years (standard deviation of 16 years) were included in this study. All MTOS-TRISS and NTrD-TRISS models examined in this study showed adequate discriminative ability with AUCs ranged from 0.86 to 0.89 for patients with blunt trauma mechanism and 0.89 to 0.99 for patients with penetrating trauma mechanism. The H-L goodness-of-fit test indicated the NTrD-TRISS model calibrated as good as the MTOS-TRISS model for patients with blunt trauma mechanism.

    CONCLUSION: For patients with blunt trauma mechanism, both the MTOS-TRISS and NTrD-TRISS models showed good discrimination and calibration performances. Discrimination performance for the NTrD-TRISS model was revealed to be as good as the MTOS-TRISS model specifically for patients with penetrating trauma mechanism. Overall, this validation study has ascertained the discrimination and calibration performances of the NTrD-TRISS model to be as good as the MTOS-TRISS model particularly for patients with blunt trauma mechanism.

  2. Tan Chor Lip H, Tan JH, Mohamad Y, Ariffin AC, Imran R, Azmah Tuan Mat TN
    Chin J Traumatol, 2019 Apr;22(2):69-74.
    PMID: 30583984 DOI: 10.1016/j.cjtee.2018.11.001
    PURPOSE: Amongst the ASEAN countries, Malaysia has the highest road fatality risk (>15 fatalities per 100 000 population) with 50% of these fatalities involving motorcyclist. This contributes greatly to ward admissions and poses a significant burden to the general surgery services. From mild rib fractures to severe intra-abdominal exsanguinations, the spectrum of cases managed by surgeons resulting from motorcycle accidents is extensive. The objective of this study is to report the clinical characteristics and identify predictors of death in motorcycle traumatic injuries from a Malaysian trauma surgery centre.

    METHODS: This is a prospective cross-sectional study of all injured motorcyclists and pillion riders that were admitted to Hospital Sultanah Aminah and treated by the trauma surgery team from May 2011 to February 2015. Only injured motorcyclists and pillion riders were included in this study. Patient demography and predictors leading to mortality were identified. Significant predictors on univariate analysis were further analysed with multivariate analysis.

    RESULTS: We included 1653 patients with a mean age of (35 ± 16.17) years that were treated for traumatic injuries due to motorcycle accidents. The mortality rate was 8.6% (142) with equal amount of motorcycle riders (788) and pillion riders (865) that were injured. Amongst the injured were male predominant (1 537) and majority of ethnic groups were the Malays (897) and Chinese (350). Severity of injury was reflected with a mean Revised Trauma Score (RTS) of 7.31 ± 1.29, New Injury Severity Score (NISS) of 19.84 ± 13.84 and Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS) of 0.91 ± 0.15. Univariate and multivariate analysis revealed that age≥35, lower GCS, head injuries, chest injuries, liver injuries, and small bowel injuries were significant predictors of motorcycle trauma related deaths with p 

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