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  1. Heavy metals drinking water contamination and health risk assessment among primary school children of Pakistan
    Ahmed J, Wong LP, Chua YP, Channa N, Memon UU, Garn JV, et al.
    J Environ Sci Health A Tox Hazard Subst Environ Eng, 2021;56(6):667-679.
    PMID: 33910486 DOI: 10.1080/10934529.2021.1915653
    The purpose of this study was to characterize the concentrations of lead (Pb), cadmium (Cd), manganese (Mn), and Fe (Fe) in drinking water sources in primary schools in Sindh Province, Pakistan and to quantify potential health risks among those school children. We conducted a representative, cross-sectional study among 425 primary schools in Sindh province of Pakistan. We used risk assessment models to estimate the metal index, pollution index, lifetime cancer risk, and hazard quotient index. Across the 425 sampled schools, the levels of heavy metals in the drinking water often exceeded the WHO permissible limits (67% of schools exceeded Pb limit, 17% for Cd, 15% for Fe). The average incremental lifetime cancer risk (ILCR) for Pb exceeded tolerable limits in all of the districts under study. The findings, particularly for Pb, are of concern, as Pb may negatively influence children's growth, development, school performance, and long-term health.
  2. Fulltext Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment of Drinking Water Quality to Predict the Risk of Waterborne Diseases in Primary-School Children
    Ahmed J, Wong LP, Chua YP, Channa N, Mahar RB, Yasmin A, et al.
    Int J Environ Res Public Health, 2020 04 17;17(8).
    PMID: 32316585 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph17082774
    Primary-school children in low- and middle-income countries are often deprived of microbiologically safe water and sanitation, often resulting in a high prevalence of gastrointestinal diseases and poor school performance. We used Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) to predict the probability of infection in schoolchildren due to consumption of unsafe school water. A multistage random-sampling technique was used to randomly select 425 primary schools from ten districts of Sindh, Pakistan, to produce a representative sample of the province. We characterized water supplies in selected schools. Microbiological testing of water resulted in inputs for the QMRA model, to estimate the risks of infections to schoolchildren. Groundwater (62%) and surface water (38%) were identified as two major sources of drinking water in the selected schools, presenting varying degrees of health risks. Around half of the drinking-water samples were contaminated with Escherichia coli (49%), Shigella spp. (63%), Salmonella spp. (53%), and Vibrio cholerae (49%). Southern Sindh was found to have the highest risk of infection and illness from Campylobacter and Rotavirus. Central and Northern Sindh had a comparatively lower risk of waterborne diseases. Schoolchildren of Karachi were estimated to have the highest probability of illness per year, due to Campylobacter (70%) and Rotavirus (22.6%). Pearson correlation was run to assess the relationship between selected pathogens. V. cholerae was correlated with Salmonella spp., Campylobacter, Rotavirus, and Salmonella spp. Overall, the risk of illness due to the bacterial infection (E. coli, Salmonella spp., V. cholerae, Shigella, and Campylobacter) was high. There is a dire need for management plans in the schools of Sindh, to halt the progression of waterborne diseases in school-going children.
  3. Fulltext Mapping age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence in adults in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-2018
    Haeuser E, Serfes AL, Cork MA, Yang M, Abbastabar H, Abhilash ES, et al.
    BMC Med, 2022 Dec 19;20(1):488.
    PMID: 36529768 DOI: 10.1186/s12916-022-02639-z
    BACKGROUND: Human immunodeficiency virus and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) is still among the leading causes of disease burden and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and the world is not on track to meet targets set for ending the epidemic by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Precise HIV burden information is critical for effective geographic and epidemiological targeting of prevention and treatment interventions. Age- and sex-specific HIV prevalence estimates are widely available at the national level, and region-wide local estimates were recently published for adults overall. We add further dimensionality to previous analyses by estimating HIV prevalence at local scales, stratified into sex-specific 5-year age groups for adults ages 15-59 years across SSA.

    METHODS: We analyzed data from 91 seroprevalence surveys and sentinel surveillance among antenatal care clinic (ANC) attendees using model-based geostatistical methods to produce estimates of HIV prevalence across 43 countries in SSA, from years 2000 to 2018, at a 5 × 5-km resolution and presented among second administrative level (typically districts or counties) units.

    RESULTS: We found substantial variation in HIV prevalence across localities, ages, and sexes that have been masked in earlier analyses. Within-country variation in prevalence in 2018 was a median 3.5 times greater across ages and sexes, compared to for all adults combined. We note large within-district prevalence differences between age groups: for men, 50% of districts displayed at least a 14-fold difference between age groups with the highest and lowest prevalence, and at least a 9-fold difference for women. Prevalence trends also varied over time; between 2000 and 2018, 70% of all districts saw a reduction in prevalence greater than five percentage points in at least one sex and age group. Meanwhile, over 30% of all districts saw at least a five percentage point prevalence increase in one or more sex and age group.

    CONCLUSIONS: As the HIV epidemic persists and evolves in SSA, geographic and demographic shifts in prevention and treatment efforts are necessary. These estimates offer epidemiologically informative detail to better guide more targeted interventions, vital for combating HIV in SSA.

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