METHODS: Patients data with CKD stages 3-5 admitted at various wards were included in the model development. The data collected included demographic characteristics, comorbid conditions, laboratory tests and types of medicines taken. Sequential series of logistic regression models using mortality as the dependent variable were developed. Bootstrapping method was used to evaluate the model's internal validation. Variables odd ratio (OR) of the best model were used to calculate the predictive capacity of the risk scores using the area under the curve (AUC).

RESULTS: The best prediction model included comorbidities heart disease, dyslipidaemia and electrolyte imbalance; psychotic agents; creatinine kinase; number of total medication use; and conservative management (Hosmer and Lemeshow test =0.643). Model performance was relatively modest (R square = 0.399) and AUC which determines the risk score's ability to predict mortality associated with ADRs was 0.789 (95% CI, 0.700-0.878). Creatinine kinase, followed by psychotic agents and electrolyte disorder, was most strongly associated with mortality after ADRs during hospitalization. This model correctly predicts 71.4% of all mortality pertaining to ADRs (sensitivity) and with specificity of 77.3%.

METHODS: A cost utility study of hemodialysis (HD) and continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis (CAPD) was conducted from a Ministry of Health (MOH) perspective. A Markov model was also developed to investigate the cost effectiveness of increasing uptake of incident CAPD to 55% and 60% versus current practice of 40% CAPD in a five-year temporal horizon. A scenario with 30% CAPD was also measured. The costs and utilities were sourced from published data which were collected as part of this study. The transitional probabilities and survival estimates were obtained from the Malaysia Dialysis and Transplant Registry (MDTR). The outcome measures were cost per life year (LY), cost per quality adjusted LY (QALY) and incremental cost effectiveness ratio (ICER) for the Markov model. Sensitivity analyses were performed.

RESULTS: LYs saved for HD was 4.15 years and 3.70 years for CAPD. QALYs saved for HD was 3.544 years and 3.348 for CAPD. Cost per LY saved was RM39,791 for HD and RM37,576 for CAPD. The cost per QALY gained was RM46,595 for HD and RM41,527 for CAPD. The Markov model showed commencement of CAPD in 50% of ESRD patients as initial dialysis modality was very cost-effective versus current practice of 40% within MOH. Reduction in CAPD use was associated with higher costs and a small devaluation in QALYs.