AIM: To identify and critically appraise existing clinical prediction models of extended-spectrum β-lactamase-producing Enterobacteriaceae (ESBL-EKP) infection or colonization.
METHODS: Electronic databases, reference lists, and citations were searched from inception to April 2018. Papers were included in any language describing the development or validation, or both, of models and scores to predict the risk of ESBL-EKP infection or colonization.
FINDINGS: In all, 1795 references were screened, of which four articles were included in the review. The included studies were carried out in different geographical locations with differing study designs, and inclusion and exclusion criteria. Most if not all studies lacked external validation and blinding of reviewers during the evaluation of the predictor variables and outcome. All studies excluded missing data and most studies did not report the number of patients excluded due to missing data. Fifteen predictors of infection or colonization with ESBL-EKP were identified. Commonly included predictors were previous antibiotic use, previous hospitalization, transfer from another healthcare facility, and previous procedures (urinary catheterization and invasive procedures).
CONCLUSION: Due to limitations and variations in the study design, clinicians would have to take these differences into consideration when deciding on how to use these models in clinical practice. Due to lack of external validation, the generalizability of these models remains a question. Therefore, further external validation in local settings is needed to confirm the usefulness of these models in supporting decision-making.
METHODS: We performed a systematic search of four databases for relevant studies. Meta-analysis was done based on United Nations geoscheme regions, individual countries and study period. We used a random-effects model to calculate pooled prevalence and mortality estimates with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), weighted by study size.
RESULTS: Among 6445 reports screened, we identified 126 relevant studies, comprising data from 29 countries. The overall prevalence of multidrug-resistance among A. baumannii causing HAP and VAP pooled from 114 studies was 79.9% (95% CI 73.9-85.4%). Central America (100%) and Latin America and the Caribbean (100%) had the highest prevalence, whereas Eastern Asia had the lowest (64.6%; 95% CI, 50.2-77.6%). The overall mortality estimate pooled from 27 studies was 42.6% (95% CI, 37.2-48.1%).
CONCLUSIONS: We observed large amounts of variation in the prevalence of multidrug-resistance among A. baumannii causing HAP and VAP and its mortality rate among regions and lack of data from many countries. Data from this review can be used in the development of customized strategies for infection control and antimicrobial stewardship.