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  1. Fulltext Developing forecasting model for future pandemic applications based on COVID-19 data 2020-2022
    Wan Mohamad Nawi WIA, K Abdul Hamid AA, Lola MS, Zakaria S, Aruchunan E, Gobithaasan RU, et al.
    PLoS One, 2023;18(5):e0285407.
    PMID: 37172040 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0285407
    Improving forecasting particularly time series forecasting accuracy, efficiency and precisely become crucial for the authorities to forecast, monitor, and prevent the COVID-19 cases so that its spread can be controlled more effectively. However, the results obtained from prediction models are inaccurate, imprecise as well as inefficient due to linear and non-linear patterns exist in the data set, respectively. Therefore, to produce more accurate and efficient COVID-19 prediction value that is closer to the true COVID-19 value, a hybrid approach has been implemented. Thus, aims of this study is (1) to propose a hybrid ARIMA-SVM model to produce better forecasting results. (2) to investigate in terms of the performance of the proposed models and percentage improvement against ARIMA and SVM models. statistical measurements such as MSE, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE then conducted to verify that the proposed models are better than ARIMA and SVM models. Empirical results with three real datasets of well-known cases of COVID-19 in Malaysia show that, compared to the ARIMA and SVM models, the proposed model generates the smallest MSE, RMSE, MAE and MAPE values for the training and testing datasets, means that the predicted value from the proposed model is closer to the actual value. These results prove that the proposed model can generate estimated values more accurately and efficiently. As compared to ARIMA and SVM, our proposed models perform much better in terms of error reduction percentages for all datasets. This is demonstrated by the maximum scores of 73.12%, 74.6%, 90.38%, and 68.99% in the MAE, MAPE, MSE, and RMSE, respectively. Therefore, the proposed model can be the best and effective way to improve prediction performance with a higher level of accuracy and efficiency in predicting cases of COVID-19.
  2. Fulltext Assessing the sustainability of the homestay industry for the East Coast of Malaysia using the Delphi approach
    Zamzuki FA, Lola MS, Aruchunan E, Muthuvalu MS, Jubilee RVW, Zainuddin NH, et al.
    Heliyon, 2023 Nov;9(11):e21433.
    PMID: 38027815 DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e21433
    Homestay ecotourism in Malaysia has been extensively examined in terms of its concepts, approaches, activities, and community engagement. However, a comprehensive assessment of the sustainability factors pertaining to host families remains a critical area awaiting exploration. This is paramount for ensuring the long-term viability of homestays and fostering economic benefits within rural communities. The present study seeks to establish direct subjective measurements for evaluating the interplay between local communities, tourism, and resources in safeguarding sustainable homestays. Utilizing the Delphi approach, this research conducted interviews with 51 experts who were actively involved in six homestays located on the East Coast of Peninsular Malaysia. The objective was to identify key evaluation indicators pertinent to the homestay industry. The findings underscored the pivotal roles played by community resources and tourism in the sustainability of homestays. Additionally, environmental, economic, and social factors emerged as crucial components for maintaining the industry's sustainability. This innovative assessment methodology offers a valuable instrument for enhancing the sustainability of the homestay sector, especially in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. By embracing this approach, homestay operators can fortify their sustainable management practices and prepare themselves for future pandemics. This study represents a significant contribution to the field of homestay ecotourism, emphasizing the imperative for continued research in this dynamic domain.
  3. The rate of blood culture contamination and common organisms isolated in Malaysian public hospitals
    Mokhtar NA, Ting SY, Zainol Abidin NZ, Abdul Hameed A, Mohamed Z, Mustapa NI, et al.
    Malays J Pathol, 2024 Aug;46(2):307-314.
    PMID: 39207008
    INTRODUCTION: Blood culture contamination remains a dilemma issue in the diagnosis of bloodstream infection. However, to date, there is no national data on blood culture contamination and the common organism isolated in Malaysia. This is a pioneer multi-centre study involving public hospitals with medical microbiologists in Malaysia to determine the blood culture contamination rate and the common organism isolated.

    MATERIALS AND METHODS: This retrospective cross-sectional study involved record review of all blood culture results over 9 months period from 1st January 2018 until 30th September 2018 in 27 government hospitals in Malaysia. For each positive culture result, the type of isolated organism was classified to represent true bacteraemia or contamination.

    RESULTS: We analysed 448,109 blood culture records from the participating hospitals. The blood culture positivity rate was 12.5% (57395 of 448109) and 25.0% (14367 of 57395) of the positive blood culture represents contamination. The national blood culture contamination rate in Malaysia was 3.2%. The contamination rate in the adult population was significantly higher than the paediatric population (3.6% vs. 2.6%; p<0.001). The blood contamination rate by institution ranged from 1.5% to 6.8%. The most frequently isolated microorganisms in the contaminated cultures were coagulase-negative staphylococci (71.0%).

    CONCLUSION: Blood culture contamination is a major issue that warrants priority in recognition, and interventions should be implemented to reduce the blood contamination rate in Malaysia.

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