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Fulltext Bridging the data gaps in the epidemiology of hepatitis C virus infection in Malaysia using multi-parameter evidence synthesis

McDonald SA, Mohamed R, Dahlui M, Naning H, Kamarulzaman A

BMC Infect Dis, 2014;14:564.
PMID: 25377240 DOI: 10.1186/s12879-014-0564-6

Collecting adequate information on key epidemiological indicators is a prerequisite to informing a public health response to reduce the impact of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in Malaysia. Our goal was to overcome the acute data shortage typical of low/middle income countries using statistical modelling to estimate the national HCV prevalence and the distribution over transmission pathways as of the end of 2009.
Fulltext Projections of the current and future disease burden of hepatitis C virus infection in Malaysia

McDonald SA, Dahlui M, Mohamed R, Naning H, Shabaruddin FH, Kamarulzaman A

PLoS One, 2015;10(6):e0128091.
PMID: 26042425 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0128091

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in Malaysia has been estimated at 2.5% of the adult population. Our objective, satisfying one of the directives of the WHO Framework for Global Action on Viral Hepatitis, was to forecast the HCV disease burden in Malaysia using modelling methods.
METHODS: An age-structured multi-state Markov model was developed to simulate the natural history of HCV infection. We tested three historical incidence scenarios that would give rise to the estimated prevalence in 2009, and calculated the incidence of cirrhosis, end-stage liver disease, and death, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) under each scenario, to the year 2039. In the baseline scenario, current antiviral treatment levels were extended from 2014 to the end of the simulation period. To estimate the disease burden averted under current sustained virological response rates and treatment levels, the baseline scenario was compared to a counterfactual scenario in which no past or future treatment is assumed.
RESULTS: In the baseline scenario, the projected disease burden for the year 2039 is 94,900 DALYs/year (95% credible interval (CrI): 77,100 to 124,500), with 2,002 (95% CrI: 1340 to 3040) and 540 (95% CrI: 251 to 1,030) individuals predicted to develop decompensated cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma, respectively, in that year. Although current treatment practice is estimated to avert a cumulative total of 2,200 deaths from DC or HCC, a cumulative total of 63,900 HCV-related deaths is projected by 2039.
CONCLUSIONS: The HCV-related disease burden is already high and is forecast to rise steeply over the coming decades under current levels of antiviral treatment. Increased governmental resources to improve HCV screening and treatment rates and to reduce transmission are essential to address the high projected HCV disease burden in Malaysia.
Modelling the Impact of Different Tuberculosis Control Interventions on the Prevalence of Tuberculosis in an Overcrowded Prison

Naning H, Al-Darraji HAA, McDonald S, Ismail NA, Kamarulzaman A

Asia Pac J Public Health, 2018 04;30(3):235-243.
PMID: 29502429 DOI: 10.1177/1010539518757229

The aim of this study was to simulate the effects of tuberculosis (TB) treatment strategies interventions in an overcrowded and poorly ventilated prison with both high (5 months) and low (3 years) turnover of inmates against improved environmental conditions. We used a deterministic transmission model to simulate the effects of treatment of latent TB infection and active TB, or the combination of both treatment strategies. Without any intervention, the TB prevalence is estimated to increase to 8.8% for a prison with low turnover of inmates but modestly stabilize at 5.8% for high-turnover prisons in a 10-year period. Reducing overcrowding from 6 to 4 inmates per housing cell and increasing the ventilation rate from 2 to 12 air changes per hour combined with any treatment strategy would further reduce the TB prevalence to as low as 0.98% for a prison with low inmate turnover.
Fulltext Use of Smartphone to Seek Sexual Health Information Online Among Malaysian Men Who Have Sex with Men (MSM): Implications for mHealth Intervention to Increase HIV Testing and Reduce HIV Risks

Shrestha R, Lim SH, Altice FL, Copenhaver M, Wickersham JA, Saifi R, et al.

J Community Health, 2020 02;45(1):10-19.
PMID: 31375976 DOI: 10.1007/s10900-019-00713-x

In settings where stigma and discrimination toward men who have sex with men (MSM) are high or illegal, like in Malaysia, innovative methods to anonymously reach them are urgently needed. The near ubiquitous availability of mobile technology, including smartphones, has the potential to open new frontiers (such as mHealth) to prevent HIV and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs). The extent to which MSM use mHealth tools for HIV and STI prevention in the Malaysia context, however, is unknown. A cross-sectional online survey in 622 Malaysian MSM was conducted between July and November 2017. Participants were recruited via advertisements on mobile apps frequently used by MSM. In addition to demographic, smartphone access and utilization, and other information were assessed using logistic regression to determine factors associated with the use of a smartphone to search for online sexual health information. Nearly all (99.2%) participants owned a smartphone, with 63% reported having used one to seek sexual health information, including HIV/STIs. Overall, 96% used smartphones to find sexual partners, with high levels of HIV risk behavior reported. Independent correlates of smartphone use to seek online sexual health information included older age (aOR 0.943, p = 0.005), higher education (aOR 2.14, p = 027), recent (past year) HIV testing (aOR 3.91, p = 0.026), and seeking sexual partners using geosocial networking apps (aOR 5.58, p = 0.006). These findings suggest high smartphone use by high-risk MSM to seek sexual health information and suggests that mHealth strategies may be an effective strategy to engage MSM in HIV prevention activities.