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  1. Anand L, Choudhury A, Bihari C, Sharma BC, Kumar M, Maiwall R, et al.
    Hepatology, 2019 08;70(2):587-596.
    PMID: 30113706 DOI: 10.1002/hep.30205
    Autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) is considered less common in the Asia Pacific region. Due to this, AIH flare as a cause of acute on chronic liver failure (ACLF) is often overlooked and treatment delayed. We aimed at the defining clinical and histopathological spectrum and role of steroid therapy in AIH-ACLF. Patients with AIH-ACLF, prospectively recruited and followed between 2012 and 2017, were analyzed from the Asian Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver ACLF Research Consortium (AARC) data base. Diagnosis of AIH was confirmed using International Autoimmune Hepatitis Group score or simplified AIH score with histopathological evidence. Of 2,825 ACLF patients, 82 (2.9%) fulfilled criteria of AIH (age 42.1 ± 18.1 years, 70% female). At baseline, mean bilirubin was 18.6 ± 8.2 mg/dL, Child-Turcotte-Pugh score was 11.7 ± 1.4, and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score was 27.6 ± 6.5. Mean immunoglobulin G was 21.61 ± 7.32 g/dL, and this was elevated ≥1.1 times in 97% of cases; 49% were seronegative. Liver histology was available in 90%, with median histological activity index of 10 (interquartile range, 7-12); 90% with moderate to severe interface activity; 56% showing significant parenchymal necrosis (bridging and confluent necrosis); and cirrhosis in 42%. Twenty-eight (34%) patients received steroid therapy and showed shorter intensive care unit (ICU) stay (median 1.5 versus 4 days, P < 0.001) and improved 90-day survival (75% versus 48.1%, P = 0.02) with comparable incidence of sepsis (P = 0.32) compared to those who did not. Patients of advanced age, more severe liver disease (MELD >27; 83.3% sensitivity, 78.9% specificity, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.86), presence of hepatic encephalopathy, and fibrosis grade ≥F3 had an unfavorable response to corticosteroid therapy. Conclusion: AIH presenting as ACLF is not uncommon in Asian patients; a low threshold for liver biopsy is needed to confirm the diagnosis as nearly half the patients are seronegative; early stratification to steroid therapy or liver transplantation (MELD >27, hepatic encephalopathy in ≥F3) would reduce ICU stay and improve outcomes.
  2. Verma N, Choudhury A, Singh V, Duseja A, Al-Mahtab M, Devarbhavi H, et al.
    Liver Int, 2023 Feb;43(2):442-451.
    PMID: 35797245 DOI: 10.1111/liv.15361
    BACKGROUND AND AIMS: We hypothesized that artificial intelligence (AI) models are more precise than standard models for predicting outcomes in acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF).

    METHODS: We recruited ACLF patients between 2009 and 2020 from APASL-ACLF Research Consortium (AARC). Their clinical data, investigations and organ involvement were serially noted for 90-days and utilized for AI modelling. Data were split randomly into train and validation sets. Multiple AI models, MELD and AARC-Model, were created/optimized on train set. Outcome prediction abilities were evaluated on validation sets through area under the curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, specificity and class precision.

    RESULTS: Among 2481 ACLF patients, 1501 in train set and 980 in validation set, the extreme gradient boost-cross-validated model (XGB-CV) demonstrated the highest AUC in train (0.999), validation (0.907) and overall sets (0.976) for predicting 30-day outcomes. The AUC and accuracy of the XGB-CV model (%Δ) were 7.0% and 6.9% higher than the standard day-7 AARC model (p 

  3. Maiwall R, Pasupuleti SSR, Choudhury A, Kim DJ, Sood A, Goyal O, et al.
    Hepatol Int, 2023 Jun;17(3):662-675.
    PMID: 36571711 DOI: 10.1007/s12072-022-10463-z
    BACKGROUND AND AIM: Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a severe form of alcoholic hepatitis (SAH). We aimed to study the natural course, response to corticosteroids (CS), and the role of the Asian Pacific Association for the Study of Liver (APASL) research consortium (AARC) score in determining clinical outcomes in AH patients.

    METHODS: Prospectively collected data from the AARC database were analyzed.

    RESULTS: Of the 1249 AH patients, (aged 43.8 ± 10.6 years, 96.9% male, AARC score 9.2 ± 1.9), 38.8% died on a 90 day follow-up. Of these, 150 (12.0%) had mild-moderate AH (MAH), 65 (5.2%) had SAH and 1034 (82.8%) had ACLF. Two hundred and eleven (16.9%) patients received CS, of which 101 (47.87%) were steroid responders by day 7 of Lille's model, which was associated with improved survival [Hazard ratio (HR) 0.15, 95% CI 0.12-0.19]. AARC-ACLF grade 3 [OR 0.28, 0.14-0.55] was an independent predictor of steroid non-response and mortality [HR 3.29, 2.63-4.11]. Complications increased with degree of liver failure [AARC grade III vs. II vs I], bacterial infections [48.6% vs. 37% vs. 34.7%; p 

  4. Sharma S, Agarwal S, Saraya A, Choudhury AK, Saigal S, Soin AS, et al.
    Hepatol Int, 2023 Aug;17(4):989-999.
    PMID: 36790652 DOI: 10.1007/s12072-023-10482-4
    BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Early identification of non-response to steroids is critical in patients with autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) causing acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). We assessed if this non-response can be accurately identified within first few days of treatment.

    METHODS: Patients with AIH-ACLF without baseline infection/hepatic encephalopathy were identified from APASL ACLF research consortium (AARC) database. Diagnosis of AIH-ACLF was based mainly on histology. Those treated with steroids were assessed for non-response (defined as death or liver transplant at 90 days for present study). Laboratory parameters, AARC, and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores were assessed at baseline and day 3 to identify early non-response. Utility of dynamic SURFASA score [- 6.80 + 1.92*(D0-INR) + 1.94*(∆%3-INR) + 1.64*(∆%3-bilirubin)] was also evaluated. The performance of early predictors was compared with changes in MELD score at 2 weeks.

    RESULTS: Fifty-five out of one hundred and sixty-five patients (age-38.2 ± 15.0 years, 67.2% females) with AIH-ACLF [median MELD 24 (IQR: 22-27); median AARC score 7 (6-9)] given oral prednisolone 40 (20-40) mg per day were analyzed. The 90 day transplant-free survival in this cohort was 45.7% with worse outcomes in those with incident infections (56% vs 28.0%, p = 0.03). The AUROC of pre-therapy AARC score [0.842 (95% CI 0.754-0.93)], MELD [0.837 (95% CI 0.733-0.94)] score and SURFASA score [0.795 (95% CI 0.678-0.911)] were as accurate as ∆MELD at 2 weeks [0.770 (95% CI 0.687-0.845), p = 0.526] and better than ∆MELD at 3 days [0.541 (95% CI 0.395, 0.687), p  6, MELD score > 24 with SURFASA score ≥ - 1.2, could identify non-responders at day 3 (concomitant- 75% vs either - 42%, p 

  5. Choudhury A, Vijayaraghavan R, Maiwall R, Kumar M, Duan Z, Yu C, et al.
    Hepatol Int, 2021 Oct 04.
    PMID: 34608586 DOI: 10.1007/s12072-021-10206-6
    BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a rapidly progressive illness with high short-term mortality. Timely liver transplant (LT) may improve survival. We evaluated various indices for assessment of the severity of liver failure and their application for eligibility and timing of living donor LT (LDLT).

    METHODS: Altogether 1021 patients were analyzed for the severity and organ failure at admission to determine transplant eligibility and 28 day survival with or without transplant.

    RESULTS: The ACLF cohort [mean age 44 ± 12.2 years, males 81%) was of sick patients; 55% willing for LT at admission, though 63% of them were ineligible due to sepsis or organ failure. On day 4, recovery in sepsis and/or organ failure led to an improvement in transplant eligibility from 37% at baseline to 63.7%. Delay in LT up to 7 days led to a higher incidence of multiorgan failure (p 

  6. Verma N, Dhiman RK, Singh V, Duseja A, Taneja S, Choudhury A, et al.
    Hepatol Int, 2021 Jun;15(3):753-765.
    PMID: 34173167 DOI: 10.1007/s12072-021-10175-w
    BACKGROUND: Multiple predictive models of mortality exist for acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) patients that often create confusion during decision-making. We studied the natural history and evaluated the performance of prognostic models in ACLF patients.

    METHODS: Prospectively collected data of ACLF patients from APASL-ACLF Research Consortium (AARC) was analyzed for 30-day outcomes. The models evaluated at days 0, 4, and 7 of presentation for 30-day mortality were: AARC (model and score), CLIF-C (ACLF score, and OF score), NACSELD-ACLF (model and binary), SOFA, APACHE-II, MELD, MELD-Lactate, and CTP. Evaluation parameters were discrimination (c-indices), calibration [accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and positive/negative predictive values (PPV/NPV)], Akaike/Bayesian Information Criteria (AIC/BIC), Nagelkerke-R2, relative prediction errors, and odds ratios.

    RESULTS: Thirty-day survival of the cohort (n = 2864) was 64.9% and was lowest for final-AARC-grade-III (32.8%) ACLF. Performance parameters of all models were best at day 7 than at day 4 or day 0 (p  12 had the lowest 30-day survival (5.7%).

    CONCLUSIONS: APASL-ACLF is often a progressive disease, and models assessed up to day 7 of presentation reliably predict 30-day mortality. Day-7 AARC model is a statistically robust tool for classifying risk of death and accurately predicting 30-day outcomes with relatively lower prediction errors. Day-7 AARC score > 12 may be used as a futility criterion in APASL-ACLF patients.

  7. Devarbhavi H, Choudhury AK, Sharma MK, Maiwall R, Al Mahtab M, Rahman S, et al.
    Am J Gastroenterol, 2019 06;114(6):929-937.
    PMID: 31021832 DOI: 10.14309/ajg.0000000000000201
    OBJECTIVES: Acute insults from viruses, infections, or alcohol are established causes of decompensation leading to acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). Information regarding drugs as triggers of ACLF is lacking. We examined data regarding drugs producing ACLF and analyzed clinical features, laboratory characteristics, outcome, and predictors of mortality in patients with drug-induced ACLF.

    METHODS: We identified drugs as precipitants of ACLF among prospective cohort of patients with ACLF from the Asian Pacific Association of Study of Liver (APASL) ACLF Research Consortium (AARC) database. Drugs were considered precipitants after exclusion of known causes together with a temporal association between exposure and decompensation. Outcome was defined as death from decompensation.

    RESULTS: Of the 3,132 patients with ACLF, drugs were implicated as a cause in 329 (10.5%, mean age 47 years, 65% men) and other nondrug causes in 2,803 (89.5%) (group B). Complementary and alternative medications (71.7%) were the commonest insult, followed by combination antituberculosis therapy drugs (27.3%). Alcoholic liver disease (28.6%), cryptogenic liver disease (25.5%), and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) (16.7%) were common causes of underlying liver diseases. Patients with drug-induced ACLF had jaundice (100%), ascites (88%), encephalopathy (46.5%), high Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) (30.2), and Child-Turcotte-Pugh score (12.1). The overall 90-day mortality was higher in drug-induced (46.5%) than in non-drug-induced ACLF (38.8%) (P = 0.007). The Cox regression model identified arterial lactate (P < 0.001) and total bilirubin (P = 0.008) as predictors of mortality.

    DISCUSSION: Drugs are important identifiable causes of ACLF in Asia-Pacific countries, predominantly from complementary and alternative medications, followed by antituberculosis drugs. Encephalopathy, bilirubin, blood urea, lactate, and international normalized ratio (INR) predict mortality in drug-induced ACLF.

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