Displaying all 2 publications

Abstract:
Sort:
  1. Fulltext Forecasting daily confirmed COVID-19 cases in Malaysia using ARIMA models
    Singh S, Murali Sundram B, Rajendran K, Boon Law K, Aris T, Ibrahim H, et al.
    J Infect Dev Ctries, 2020 09 30;14(9):971-976.
    PMID: 33031083 DOI: 10.3855/jidc.13116
    INTRODUCTION: The novel coronavirus infection has become a global threat affecting almost every country in the world. As a result, it has become important to understand the disease trends in order to mitigate its effects. The aim of this study is firstly to develop a prediction model for daily confirmed COVID-19 cases based on several covariates, and secondly, to select the best prediction model based on a subset of these covariates.

    METHODOLOGY: This study was conducted using daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 collected from the official Ministry of Health, Malaysia (MOH) and John Hopkins University websites. An Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was fitted to the training data of observed cases from 22 January to 31 March 2020, and subsequently validated using data on cases from 1 April to 17 April 2020. The ARIMA model satisfactorily forecasted the daily confirmed COVID-19 cases from 18 April 2020 to 1 May 2020 (the testing phase).

    RESULTS: The ARIMA (0,1,0) model produced the best fit to the observed data with a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value of 16.01 and a Bayes Information Criteria (BIC) value of 4.170. The forecasted values showed a downward trend of COVID-19 cases until 1 May 2020. Observed cases during the forecast period were accurately predicted and were placed within the prediction intervals generated by the fitted model.

    CONCLUSIONS: This study finds that ARIMA models with optimally selected covariates are useful tools for monitoring and predicting trends of COVID-19 cases in Malaysia.

  2. Fulltext Adherence to Clinical Practice Guidelines (CPG) management of dengue infection in adults (revised 2nd edition)
    Abd Rahman M, Ahmad Zaki R, Sarimin R, Ariff MI, Suli Z, Mahmud M, et al.
    PLoS One, 2017;12(11):e0184559.
    PMID: 29095822 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0184559
    The Malaysian Dengue Clinical Practice Guidelines (CPG) have been developed to provide evidence-based guidance in the management of dengue infections. The use of these guidelines is essential to ensure its recommendations are being practiced. However, the adherence to the guidelines for management of dengue (revised 2nd edition) by healthcare providers still remains unknown. Therefore, the aim of this study was to evaluate the proportion among healthcare providers that adhere to this Dengue CPG. A retrospective cohort study of dengue cases registered from 1 January 2014 to 1 June 2015 was conducted in public hospitals and health clinics in Selangor, Putrajaya and Kuala Lumpur. Adherence to the CPG recommendations were recorded by reviewing patients' case notes. Overall proportion of adherence in clinical components of the recommendation were (7.1 to 100.0% versus 7.7 to 73.8%) in history taking, (6.7 to 100.0% versus 12.3 to 60.0%) in physical examinations, (18.4 to 100.0% versus 23.1 to 83.2%) in assessment of warning signs, (0.6 to 100.0% versus 12.3 to 87.7%) in assessment of haemodynamic status, (60.0 to 100.0% versus 27.7 to 40.0%) in diagnosis, (46.6 to 80.0% versus 52.3%) in case notifications, (73.2 to 100.0% versus 89.2 to 96.9%) in performing specific laboratory investigations and (7.9 to 100.0% versus 21.5%) in monitoring, for outpatient versus inpatient, respectively. Adherence trends were demonstrated to be higher in hospital settings compared to outpatient settings. Adherence to this Dengue CPG varies widely with overall good clinical outcomes observed.

    Study site: public hospitals and health clinics in Selangor, Putrajaya and Kuala Lumpur
Related Terms
    Try searching for something
Filters
Contact Us

Please provide feedback to Administrator (afdal@afpm.org.my)

External Links