BACKGROUND: The control groups in two phase 3 trials of dengue vaccine efficacy included two large regional cohorts that were followed up for dengue infection. These cohorts provided a sample for epidemiologic analyses of symptomatic dengue in children across 10 countries in Southeast Asia and Latin America in which dengue is endemic.
METHODS: We monitored acute febrile illness and virologically confirmed dengue (VCD) in 3424 healthy children, 2 to 16 years of age, in Asia (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam) from June 2011 through December 2013 and in 6939 children, 9 to 18 years of age, in Latin America (Brazil, Colombia, Honduras, Mexico, and Puerto Rico) from June 2011 through April 2014. Acute febrile episodes were determined to be VCD by means of a nonstructural protein 1 antigen immunoassay and reverse-transcriptase-polymerase-chain-reaction assays. Dengue hemorrhagic fever was defined according to 1997 World Health Organization criteria.
RESULTS: Approximately 10% of the febrile episodes in each cohort were confirmed to be VCD, with 319 VCD episodes (4.6 episodes per 100 person-years) occurring in the Asian cohort and 389 VCD episodes (2.9 episodes per 100 person-years) occurring in the Latin American cohort; no trend according to age group was observed. The incidence of dengue hemorrhagic fever was less than 0.3 episodes per 100 person-years in each cohort. The percentage of VCD episodes requiring hospitalization was 19.1% in the Asian cohort and 11.1% in the Latin American cohort. In comparable age groups (9 to 12 years and 13 to 16 years), the burden of dengue was higher in Asia than in Latin America.
CONCLUSIONS: The burdens of dengue were substantial in the two regions and in all age groups. Burdens varied widely according to country, but the rates were generally higher and the disease more frequently severe in Asian countries than in Latin American countries. (Funded by Sanofi Pasteur; CYD14 and CYD15 ClinicalTrials.gov numbers, NCT01373281 and NCT01374516.).
Note: Malaysia is a study site (CYD14 Primary Study Group authors: HIHJMI, Pediatric Institute, Kuala Lumpur Hospital, Kuala Lumpur; RN, Department of Paediatrics, Hospital Pulau Pinang, Pulau Pinang, Malaysia)
We described and quantified epidemiologic trends in dengue disease burden in 5 Asian countries (Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Philippines, and Vietnam) and identified and estimated outbreaks impact over the last 3 decades. Dengue surveillance data from 1980 to 2010 were retrieved from DengueNet and from World Health Organization sources. Trends in incidence, mortality, and case fatality rate (CFR) were systematically analyzed using annual average percent change (AAPC), and the contribution of epidemic years identified over the observation period was quantified. Over the 30-year period, incidence increased in all countries (AAPC 1980-2010: 6.7% in Thailand, 10.4% in Vietnam, 12.0% in Indonesia, 18.1% in Malaysia, 24.4% in Philippines). Mortality also increased in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Philippines (AAPC: 6.8%, 7.0%, and 29.2%, respectively), but slightly decreased in Thailand and Vietnam (AAPC: -1.3% and -2.5%), and CFR decreased in all countries (AAPC: -4.2% to -8.3%). Epidemic years, despite representing less than a third of the observation period, contributed from 1 to 3 times more cases versus nonepidemic years. Implementation of more sensitive surveillance methods over the study period may have contributed to a reporting or ascertainment bias in some countries. Nonetheless, these data support the urgent need for novel, integrated, or otherwise effective dengue prevention and control tools and approaches.
Common causes of acute febrile illness in tropical countries have similar symptoms, which often mimic those of dengue. Accurate clinical diagnosis can be difficult without laboratory confirmation and disease burden is generally under-reported. Accurate, population-based, laboratory-confirmed incidence data on dengue and other causes of acute fever in dengue-endemic Asian countries are needed.
Dengue incidence has increased globally, but empirical burden estimates are scarce. Prospective methods are best-able to capture all severities of disease. CYD14 was an observer-blinded dengue vaccine study conducted in children 2-14 years of age in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, and Vietnam. The control group received no vaccine and resembled a prospective, observational study. We calculated the rates of dengue according to different laboratory or clinical criteria to make inferences about dengue burden, and compared with rates reported in the passive surveillance systems to calculate expansion factors which describe under-reporting. Over 6,933 person-years of observation in the control group there were 319 virologically confirmed dengue cases, a crude attack rate of 4.6%/year. Of these, 92 cases (28.8%) were clinically diagnosed as dengue fever or dengue hemorrhagic fever by investigators and 227 were not, indicating that most symptomatic disease fails to satisfy existing case definitions. When examining different case definitions, there was an inverse relationship between clinical severity and observed incidence rates. CYD14's active surveillance system captured a greater proportion of symptomatic dengue than national passive surveillance systems, giving rise to expansion factors ranging from 0.5 to 31.7. This analysis showed substantial, unpredictable and variable under-reporting of symptomatic dengue, even within a controlled clinical trial environment, and emphasizes that burden estimates are highly sensitive to case definitions. These data will assist in generating disease burden estimates and have important policy implications when considering the introduction and health economics of dengue prevention and control interventions.
An estimated 100 million people have symptomatic dengue infection every year. This is the first report of a phase 3 vaccine efficacy trial of a candidate dengue vaccine. We aimed to assess the efficacy of the CYD dengue vaccine against symptomatic, virologically confirmed dengue in children.
BACKGROUND: A candidate tetravalent dengue vaccine is being assessed in three clinical trials involving more than 35,000 children between the ages of 2 and 16 years in Asian-Pacific and Latin American countries. We report the results of long-term follow-up interim analyses and integrated efficacy analyses.
METHODS: We are assessing the incidence of hospitalization for virologically confirmed dengue as a surrogate safety end point during follow-up in years 3 to 6 of two phase 3 trials, CYD14 and CYD15, and a phase 2b trial, CYD23/57. We estimated vaccine efficacy using pooled data from the first 25 months of CYD14 and CYD15.
RESULTS: Follow-up data were available for 10,165 of 10,275 participants (99%) in CYD14 and 19,898 of 20,869 participants (95%) in CYD15. Data were available for 3203 of the 4002 participants (80%) in the CYD23 trial included in CYD57. During year 3 in the CYD14, CYD15, and CYD57 trials combined, hospitalization for virologically confirmed dengue occurred in 65 of 22,177 participants in the vaccine group and 39 of 11,089 participants in the control group. Pooled relative risks of hospitalization for dengue were 0.84 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.56 to 1.24) among all participants, 1.58 (95% CI, 0.83 to 3.02) among those under the age of 9 years, and 0.50 (95% CI, 0.29 to 0.86) among those 9 years of age or older. During year 3, hospitalization for severe dengue, as defined by the independent data monitoring committee criteria, occurred in 18 of 22,177 participants in the vaccine group and 6 of 11,089 participants in the control group. Pooled rates of efficacy for symptomatic dengue during the first 25 months were 60.3% (95% CI, 55.7 to 64.5) for all participants, 65.6% (95% CI, 60.7 to 69.9) for those 9 years of age or older, and 44.6% (95% CI, 31.6 to 55.0) for those younger than 9 years of age.
CONCLUSIONS: Although the unexplained higher incidence of hospitalization for dengue in year 3 among children younger than 9 years of age needs to be carefully monitored during long-term follow-up, the risk among children 2 to 16 years of age was lower in the vaccine group than in the control group. (Funded by Sanofi Pasteur; ClinicalTrials.gov numbers, NCT00842530, NCT01983553, NCT01373281, and NCT01374516.).