OBJECTIVE: To identify mutation-specific cancer risks for carriers of BRCA1/2.
DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Observational study of women who were ascertained between 1937 and 2011 (median, 1999) and found to carry disease-associated BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations. The international sample comprised 19,581 carriers of BRCA1 mutations and 11,900 carriers of BRCA2 mutations from 55 centers in 33 countries on 6 continents. We estimated hazard ratios for breast and ovarian cancer based on mutation type, function, and nucleotide position. We also estimated RHR, the ratio of breast vs ovarian cancer hazard ratios. A value of RHR greater than 1 indicated elevated breast cancer risk; a value of RHR less than 1 indicated elevated ovarian cancer risk.
EXPOSURES: Mutations of BRCA1 or BRCA2.
MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Breast and ovarian cancer risks.
RESULTS: Among BRCA1 mutation carriers, 9052 women (46%) were diagnosed with breast cancer, 2317 (12%) with ovarian cancer, 1041 (5%) with breast and ovarian cancer, and 7171 (37%) without cancer. Among BRCA2 mutation carriers, 6180 women (52%) were diagnosed with breast cancer, 682 (6%) with ovarian cancer, 272 (2%) with breast and ovarian cancer, and 4766 (40%) without cancer. In BRCA1, we identified 3 breast cancer cluster regions (BCCRs) located at c.179 to c.505 (BCCR1; RHR = 1.46; 95% CI, 1.22-1.74; P = 2 × 10(-6)), c.4328 to c.4945 (BCCR2; RHR = 1.34; 95% CI, 1.01-1.78; P = .04), and c. 5261 to c.5563 (BCCR2', RHR = 1.38; 95% CI, 1.22-1.55; P = 6 × 10(-9)). We also identified an ovarian cancer cluster region (OCCR) from c.1380 to c.4062 (approximately exon 11) with RHR = 0.62 (95% CI, 0.56-0.70; P = 9 × 10(-17)). In BRCA2, we observed multiple BCCRs spanning c.1 to c.596 (BCCR1; RHR = 1.71; 95% CI, 1.06-2.78; P = .03), c.772 to c.1806 (BCCR1'; RHR = 1.63; 95% CI, 1.10-2.40; P = .01), and c.7394 to c.8904 (BCCR2; RHR = 2.31; 95% CI, 1.69-3.16; P = .00002). We also identified 3 OCCRs: the first (OCCR1) spanned c.3249 to c.5681 that was adjacent to c.5946delT (6174delT; RHR = 0.51; 95% CI, 0.44-0.60; P = 6 × 10(-17)). The second OCCR spanned c.6645 to c.7471 (OCCR2; RHR = 0.57; 95% CI, 0.41-0.80; P = .001). Mutations conferring nonsense-mediated decay were associated with differential breast or ovarian cancer risks and an earlier age of breast cancer diagnosis for both BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers.
CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Breast and ovarian cancer risks varied by type and location of BRCA1/2 mutations. With appropriate validation, these data may have implications for risk assessment and cancer prevention decision making for carriers of BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations.
Objective: To estimate the association between SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg and SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher and the burden of different causes of death and disability by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015.
Design: A comparative risk assessment of health loss related to SBP. Estimated distribution of SBP was based on 844 studies from 154 countries (published 1980-2015) of 8.69 million participants. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression was used to generate estimates of mean SBP and adjusted variance for each age, sex, country, and year. Diseases with sufficient evidence for a causal relationship with high SBP (eg, ischemic heart disease, ischemic stroke, and hemorrhagic stroke) were included in the primary analysis.
Main Outcomes and Measures: Mean SBP level, cause-specific deaths, and health burden related to SBP (≥110-115 mm Hg and also ≥140 mm Hg) by age, sex, country, and year.
Results: Between 1990-2015, the rate of SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg increased from 73 119 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 67 949-78 241) to 81 373 (95% UI, 76 814-85 770) per 100 000, and SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher increased from 17 307 (95% UI, 17 117-17 492) to 20 526 (95% UI, 20 283-20 746) per 100 000. The estimated annual death rate per 100 000 associated with SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg increased from 135.6 (95% UI, 122.4-148.1) to 145.2 (95% UI 130.3-159.9) and the rate for SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher increased from 97.9 (95% UI, 87.5-108.1) to 106.3 (95% UI, 94.6-118.1). For loss of DALYs associated with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg or higher, the loss increased from 95.9 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 87.0-104.9 million) to 143.0 million (95% UI, 130.2-157.0 million) [corrected], and for SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher, the loss increased from 5.2 million (95% UI, 4.6-5.7 million) to 7.8 million (95% UI, 7.0-8.7 million). The largest numbers of SBP-related deaths were caused by ischemic heart disease (4.9 million [95% UI, 4.0-5.7 million]; 54.5%), hemorrhagic stroke (2.0 million [95% UI, 1.6-2.3 million]; 58.3%), and ischemic stroke (1.5 million [95% UI, 1.2-1.8 million]; 50.0%). In 2015, China, India, Russia, Indonesia, and the United States accounted for more than half of the global DALYs related to SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg.
Conclusions and Relevance: In international surveys, although there is uncertainty in some estimates, the rate of elevated SBP (≥110-115 and ≥140 mm Hg) increased substantially between 1990 and 2015, and DALYs and deaths associated with elevated SBP also increased. Projections based on this sample suggest that in 2015, an estimated 3.5 billion adults had SBP of at least 110 to 115 mm Hg and 874 million adults had SBP of 140 mm Hg or higher.
Objective: To determine the association between perioperative hsTnT measurements and 30-day mortality and potential diagnostic criteria for MINS (ie, myocardial injury due to ischemia associated with 30-day mortality).
Design, Setting, and Participants: Prospective cohort study of patients aged 45 years or older who underwent inpatient noncardiac surgery and had a postoperative hsTnT measurement. Starting in October 2008, participants were recruited at 23 centers in 13 countries; follow-up finished in December 2013.
Exposures: Patients had hsTnT measurements 6 to 12 hours after surgery and daily for 3 days; 40.4% had a preoperative hsTnT measurement.
Main Outcomes and Measures: A modified Mazumdar approach (an iterative process) was used to determine if there were hsTnT thresholds associated with risk of death and had an adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of 3.0 or higher and a risk of 30-day mortality of 3% or higher. To determine potential diagnostic criteria for MINS, regression analyses ascertained if postoperative hsTnT elevations required an ischemic feature (eg, ischemic symptom or electrocardiography finding) to be associated with 30-day mortality.
Results: Among 21 842 participants, the mean age was 63.1 (SD, 10.7) years and 49.1% were female. Death within 30 days after surgery occurred in 266 patients (1.2%; 95% CI, 1.1%-1.4%). Multivariable analysis demonstrated that compared with the reference group (peak hsTnT <5 ng/L), peak postoperative hsTnT levels of 20 to less than 65 ng/L, 65 to less than 1000 ng/L, and 1000 ng/L or higher had 30-day mortality rates of 3.0% (123/4049; 95% CI, 2.6%-3.6%), 9.1% (102/1118; 95% CI, 7.6%-11.0%), and 29.6% (16/54; 95% CI, 19.1%-42.8%), with corresponding adjusted HRs of 23.63 (95% CI, 10.32-54.09), 70.34 (95% CI, 30.60-161.71), and 227.01 (95% CI, 87.35-589.92), respectively. An absolute hsTnT change of 5 ng/L or higher was associated with an increased risk of 30-day mortality (adjusted HR, 4.69; 95% CI, 3.52-6.25). An elevated postoperative hsTnT (ie, 20 to <65 ng/L with an absolute change ≥5 ng/L or hsTnT ≥65 ng/L) without an ischemic feature was associated with 30-day mortality (adjusted HR, 3.20; 95% CI, 2.37-4.32). Among the 3904 patients (17.9%; 95% CI, 17.4%-18.4%) with MINS, 3633 (93.1%; 95% CI, 92.2%-93.8%) did not experience an ischemic symptom.
Conclusions and Relevance: Among patients undergoing noncardiac surgery, peak postoperative hsTnT during the first 3 days after surgery was significantly associated with 30-day mortality. Elevated postoperative hsTnT without an ischemic feature was also associated with 30-day mortality.
Objective: To determine if lung recruitment associated with PEEP titration according to the best respiratory-system compliance decreases 28-day mortality of patients with moderate to severe ARDS compared with a conventional low-PEEP strategy.
Design, Setting, and Participants: Multicenter, randomized trial conducted at 120 intensive care units (ICUs) from 9 countries from November 17, 2011, through April 25, 2017, enrolling adults with moderate to severe ARDS.
Interventions: An experimental strategy with a lung recruitment maneuver and PEEP titration according to the best respiratory-system compliance (n = 501; experimental group) or a control strategy of low PEEP (n = 509). All patients received volume-assist control mode until weaning.
Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was all-cause mortality until 28 days. Secondary outcomes were length of ICU and hospital stay; ventilator-free days through day 28; pneumothorax requiring drainage within 7 days; barotrauma within 7 days; and ICU, in-hospital, and 6-month mortality.
Results: A total of 1010 patients (37.5% female; mean [SD] age, 50.9 [17.4] years) were enrolled and followed up. At 28 days, 277 of 501 patients (55.3%) in the experimental group and 251 of 509 patients (49.3%) in the control group had died (hazard ratio [HR], 1.20; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.42; P = .041). Compared with the control group, the experimental group strategy increased 6-month mortality (65.3% vs 59.9%; HR, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.38; P = .04), decreased the number of mean ventilator-free days (5.3 vs 6.4; difference, -1.1; 95% CI, -2.1 to -0.1; P = .03), increased the risk of pneumothorax requiring drainage (3.2% vs 1.2%; difference, 2.0%; 95% CI, 0.0% to 4.0%; P = .03), and the risk of barotrauma (5.6% vs 1.6%; difference, 4.0%; 95% CI, 1.5% to 6.5%; P = .001). There were no significant differences in the length of ICU stay, length of hospital stay, ICU mortality, and in-hospital mortality.
Conclusions and Relevance: In patients with moderate to severe ARDS, a strategy with lung recruitment and titrated PEEP compared with low PEEP increased 28-day all-cause mortality. These findings do not support the routine use of lung recruitment maneuver and PEEP titration in these patients.
Trial Registration: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT01374022.
Objective: To estimate mortality due to firearm injury deaths from 1990 to 2016 in 195 countries and territories.
Design, Setting, and Participants: This study used deidentified aggregated data including 13 812 location-years of vital registration data to generate estimates of levels and rates of death by age-sex-year-location. The proportion of suicides in which a firearm was the lethal means was combined with an estimate of per capita gun ownership in a revised proxy measure used to evaluate the relationship between availability or access to firearms and firearm injury deaths.
Exposures: Firearm ownership and access.
Main Outcomes and Measures: Cause-specific deaths by age, sex, location, and year.
Results: Worldwide, it was estimated that 251 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 195 000-276 000) people died from firearm injuries in 2016, with 6 countries (Brazil, United States, Mexico, Colombia, Venezuela, and Guatemala) accounting for 50.5% (95% UI, 42.2%-54.8%) of those deaths. In 1990, there were an estimated 209 000 (95% UI, 172 000 to 235 000) deaths from firearm injuries. Globally, the majority of firearm injury deaths in 2016 were homicides (64.0% [95% UI, 54.2%-68.0%]; absolute value, 161 000 deaths [95% UI, 107 000-182 000]); additionally, 27% were firearm suicide deaths (67 500 [95% UI, 55 400-84 100]) and 9% were unintentional firearm deaths (23 000 [95% UI, 18 200-24 800]). From 1990 to 2016, there was no significant decrease in the estimated global age-standardized firearm homicide rate (-0.2% [95% UI, -0.8% to 0.2%]). Firearm suicide rates decreased globally at an annualized rate of 1.6% (95% UI, 1.1-2.0), but in 124 of 195 countries and territories included in this study, these levels were either constant or significant increases were estimated. There was an annualized decrease of 0.9% (95% UI, 0.5%-1.3%) in the global rate of age-standardized firearm deaths from 1990 to 2016. Aggregate firearm injury deaths in 2016 were highest among persons aged 20 to 24 years (for men, an estimated 34 700 deaths [95% UI, 24 900-39 700] and for women, an estimated 3580 deaths [95% UI, 2810-4210]). Estimates of the number of firearms by country were associated with higher rates of firearm suicide (P
Objectives: To determine the association between obstructive sleep apnea and 30-day risk of cardiovascular complications after major noncardiac surgery.
Design, Setting, and Participants: Prospective cohort study involving adult at-risk patients without prior diagnosis of sleep apnea and undergoing major noncardiac surgery from 8 hospitals in 5 countries between January 2012 and July 2017, with follow-up until August 2017. Postoperative monitoring included nocturnal pulse oximetry and measurement of cardiac troponin concentrations.
Exposures: Obstructive sleep apnea was classified as mild (respiratory event index [REI] 5-14.9 events/h), moderate (REI 15-30), and severe (REI >30), based on preoperative portable sleep monitoring.
Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was a composite of myocardial injury, cardiac death, heart failure, thromboembolism, atrial fibrillation, and stroke within 30 days of surgery. Proportional-hazards analysis was used to determine the association between obstructive sleep apnea and postoperative cardiovascular complications.
Results: Among a total of 1364 patients recruited for the study, 1218 patients (mean age, 67 [SD, 9] years; 40.2% women) were included in the analyses. At 30 days after surgery, rates of the primary outcome were 30.1% (41/136) for patients with severe OSA, 22.1% (52/235) for patients with moderate OSA, 19.0% (86/452) for patients with mild OSA, and 14.2% (56/395) for patients with no OSA. OSA was associated with higher risk for the primary outcome (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.49 [95% CI, 1.19-2.01]; P = .01); however, the association was significant only among patients with severe OSA (adjusted HR, 2.23 [95% CI, 1.49-3.34]; P = .001) and not among those with moderate OSA (adjusted HR, 1.47 [95% CI, 0.98-2.09]; P = .07) or mild OSA (adjusted HR, 1.36 [95% CI, 0.97-1.91]; P = .08) (P = .01 for interaction). The mean cumulative duration of oxyhemoglobin desaturation less than 80% during the first 3 postoperative nights in patients with cardiovascular complications (23.1 [95% CI, 15.5-27.7] minutes) was longer than in those without (10.2 [95% CI, 7.8-10.9] minutes) (P
Objective: To analyze trends in levels of lipids and apolipoprotein B in US youths during 18 years from 1999 through 2016.
Design, Setting, and Participants: Serial cross-sectional analysis of US population-weighted data for youths aged 6 to 19 years from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys for 1999 through 2016. Linear temporal trends were analyzed using multivariable regression models with regression coefficients (β) reported as change per 1 year.
Exposures: Survey year; examined periods spanned 10 to 18 years based on data availability.
Main Outcomes and Measures: Age- and race/ethnicity-adjusted mean levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL), non-HDL, and total cholesterol. Among fasting adolescents (aged 12-19 years), mean levels of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, geometric mean levels of triglycerides, and mean levels of apolipoprotein B. Prevalence of ideal and adverse (vs borderline) levels of lipids and apolipoprotein B per pediatric lipid guidelines.
Results: In total, 26 047 youths were included (weighted mean age, 12.4 years; female, 51%). Among all youths, the adjusted mean total cholesterol level declined from 164 mg/dL (95% CI, 161 to 167 mg/dL) in 1999-2000 to 155 mg/dL (95% CI, 154 to 157 mg/dL) in 2015-2016 (β for linear trend, -0.6 mg/dL [95% CI, -0.7 to -0.4 mg/dL] per year). Adjusted mean HDL cholesterol level increased from 52.5 mg/dL (95% CI, 51.7 to 53.3 mg/dL) in 2007-2008 to 55.0 mg/dL (95% CI, 53.8 to 56.3 mg/dL) in 2015-2016 (β, 0.2 mg/dL [95% CI, 0.1 to 0.4 mg/dL] per year) and non-HDL cholesterol decreased from 108 mg/dL (95% CI, 106 to 110 mg/dL) to 100 mg/dL (95% CI, 99 to 102 mg/dL) during the same years (β, -0.9 mg/dL [95% CI, -1.2 to -0.6 mg/dL] per year). Among fasting adolescents, geometric mean levels of triglycerides declined from 78 mg/dL (95% CI, 74 to 82 mg/dL) in 1999-2000 to 63 mg/dL (95% CI, 58 to 68 mg/dL) in 2013-2014 (log-transformed β, -0.015 [95% CI, -0.020 to -0.010] per year), mean levels of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol declined from 92 mg/dL (95% CI, 89 to 95 mg/dL) to 86 mg/dL (95% CI, 83 to 90 mg/dL) during the same years (β, -0.4 mg/dL [95% CI, -0.7 to -0.2 mg/dL] per year), and mean levels of apolipoprotein B declined from 70 mg/dL (95% CI, 68 to 72 mg/dL) in 2005-2006 to 67 mg/dL (95% CI, 65 to 70 mg/dL) in 2013-2014 (β, -0.4 mg/dL [95% CI, -0.7 to -0.04 mg/dL] per year). Favorable trends were generally also observed in the prevalence of ideal and adverse levels. By the end of the study period, 51.4% (95% CI, 48.5% to 54.2%) of all youths had ideal levels for HDL, non-HDL, and total cholesterol; among adolescents, 46.8% (95% CI, 40.9% to 52.6%) had ideal levels for all lipids and apolipoprotein B, whereas 15.2% (95% CI, 13.1% to 17.3%) of children aged 6 to 11 years and 25.2% (95% CI, 22.2% to 28.2%) of adolescents aged 12 to 19 years had at least 1 adverse level.
Conclusions and Relevance: Between 1999 and 2016, favorable trends were observed in levels of lipids and apolipoprotein B in US youths aged 6 to 19 years.
Objective: To assess the efficacy and adverse event profile of the recombinant zoster vaccine in immunocompromised autologous HSCT recipients.
Design, Setting, and Participants: Phase 3, randomized, observer-blinded study conducted in 167 centers in 28 countries between July 13, 2012, and February 1, 2017, among 1846 patients aged 18 years or older who had undergone recent autologous HSCT.
Interventions: Participants were randomized to receive 2 doses of either recombinant zoster vaccine (n = 922) or placebo (n = 924) administered into the deltoid muscle; the first dose was given 50 to 70 days after transplantation and the second dose 1 to 2 months thereafter.
Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary end point was occurrence of confirmed herpes zoster cases.
Results: Among 1846 autologous HSCT recipients (mean age, 55 years; 688 [37%] women) who received 1 vaccine or placebo dose, 1735 (94%) received a second dose and 1366 (74%) completed the study. During the 21-month median follow-up, at least 1 herpes zoster episode was confirmed in 49 vaccine and 135 placebo recipients (incidence, 30 and 94 per 1000 person-years, respectively), an incidence rate ratio (IRR) of 0.32 (95% CI, 0.22-0.44; P