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  1. Baral S, Rao A, Twahirwa Rwema JO, Lyons C, Cevik M, Kågesten AE, et al.
    medRxiv, 2021 Dec 15.
    PMID: 33442703 DOI: 10.1101/2021.01.07.21249419
    BACKGROUND: COVID-19 has rapidly emerged as a global public health threat with infections recorded in nearly every country. Responses to COVID-19 have varied in intensity and breadth, but generally have included domestic and international travel limitations, closure of non-essential businesses, and repurposing of health services. While these interventions have focused on testing, treatment, and mitigation of COVID-19, there have been reports of interruptions to diagnostic, prevention, and treatment services for other public health threats.

    OBJECTIVES: We conducted a scoping review to characterize the early impact of COVID-19 on HIV, tuberculosis, malaria, sexual and reproductive health, and malnutrition.

    METHODS: A scoping literature review was completed using searches of PubMed and preprint servers (medRxiv/bioRxiv) from January 1st to October 31st, 2020, using Medical Subject Headings (MeSH) terms related to SARS-CoV-2 or COVID-19 and HIV, tuberculosis, malaria, sexual and reproductive health, and malnutrition. Empiric studies reporting original data collection or mathematical models were included, and available data synthesized by region. Studies were excluded if they were not written in English.

    RESULTS: A total of 1604 published papers and 205 preprints met inclusion criteria, including 8.2% (132/1604) of published studies and 10.2% (21/205) of preprints: 7.3% (68/931) on HIV, 7.1% (24/339) on tuberculosis, 11.6% (26/224) on malaria, 7.8% (13/166) on sexual and reproductive health, and 9.8% (13/132) on malnutrition. Thematic results were similar across competing health risks, with substantial indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and response on diagnostic, prevention, and treatment services for HIV, tuberculosis, malaria, sexual and reproductive health, and malnutrition.

    DISCUSSION: COVID-19 emerged in the context of existing public health threats that result in millions of deaths every year. Thus, effectively responding to COVID-19 while minimizing the negative impacts of COVID-19 necessitates innovation and integration of existing programs that are often siloed across health systems. Inequities have been a consistent driver of existing health threats; COVID-19 has worsened disparities, reinforcing the need for programs that address structural risks. The data reviewed here suggest that effective strengthening of health systems should include investment and planning focused on ensuring the continuity of care for both rapidly emergent and existing public health threats.

  2. Darst BF, Shen J, Madduri RK, Rodriguez AA, Xiao Y, Sheng X, et al.
    medRxiv, 2023 May 15.
    PMID: 37292833 DOI: 10.1101/2023.05.12.23289860
    Genome-wide polygenic risk scores (GW-PRS) have been reported to have better predictive ability than PRS based on genome-wide significance thresholds across numerous traits. We compared the predictive ability of several GW-PRS approaches to a recently developed PRS of 269 established prostate cancer risk variants from multi-ancestry GWAS and fine-mapping studies (PRS 269 ). GW-PRS models were trained using a large and diverse prostate cancer GWAS of 107,247 cases and 127,006 controls used to develop the multi-ancestry PRS 269 . Resulting models were independently tested in 1,586 cases and 1,047 controls of African ancestry from the California/Uganda Study and 8,046 cases and 191,825 controls of European ancestry from the UK Biobank and further validated in 13,643 cases and 210,214 controls of European ancestry and 6,353 cases and 53,362 controls of African ancestry from the Million Veteran Program. In the testing data, the best performing GW-PRS approach had AUCs of 0.656 (95% CI=0.635-0.677) in African and 0.844 (95% CI=0.840-0.848) in European ancestry men and corresponding prostate cancer OR of 1.83 (95% CI=1.67-2.00) and 2.19 (95% CI=2.14-2.25), respectively, for each SD unit increase in the GW-PRS. However, compared to the GW-PRS, in African and European ancestry men, the PRS 269 had larger or similar AUCs (AUC=0.679, 95% CI=0.659-0.700 and AUC=0.845, 95% CI=0.841-0.849, respectively) and comparable prostate cancer OR (OR=2.05, 95% CI=1.87-2.26 and OR=2.21, 95% CI=2.16-2.26, respectively). Findings were similar in the validation data. This investigation suggests that current GW-PRS approaches may not improve the ability to predict prostate cancer risk compared to the multi-ancestry PRS 269 constructed with fine-mapping.
  3. Tobin RJ, Harrison LE, Tully MK, Lubis IND, Noviyanti R, Anstey NM, et al.
    medRxiv, 2023 Aug 08.
    PMID: 37609228 DOI: 10.1101/2023.08.04.23293633
    BACKGROUND: Plasmodium knowlesi is a zoonotic parasite that causes malaria in humans. The pathogen has a natural host reservoir in certain macaque species and is transmitted to humans via mosquitoes of the Anopheles Leucosphyrus Group. The risk of human P. knowlesi infection varies across Southeast Asia and is dependent upon environmental factors. Understanding this geographic variation in risk is important both for enabling appropriate diagnosis and treatment of the disease and for improving the planning and evaluation of malaria elimination. However, the data available on P. knowlesi occurrence are biased towards regions with greater surveillance and sampling effort. Predicting the spatial variation in risk of P. knowlesi malaria requires methods that can both incorporate environmental risk factors and account for spatial bias in detection.

    METHODS & RESULTS: We extend and apply an environmental niche modelling framework as implemented by a previous mapping study of P. knowlesi transmission risk which included data up to 2015. We reviewed the literature from October 2015 through to March 2020 and identified 264 new records of P. knowlesi, with a total of 524 occurrences included in the current study following consolidation with the 2015 study. The modelling framework used in the 2015 study was extended, with changes including the addition of new covariates to capture the effect of deforestation and urbanisation on P. knowlesi transmission.

    DISCUSSION: Our map of P. knowlesi relative transmission suitability estimates that the risk posed by the pathogen is highest in Malaysia and Indonesia, with localised areas of high risk also predicted in the Greater Mekong Subregion, The Philippines and Northeast India. These results highlight areas of priority for P. knowlesi surveillance and prospective sampling to address the challenge the disease poses to malaria elimination planning.

  4. Selvavinayagam ST, Aswathy B, Yong YK, Frederick A, Murali L, Kalaivani V, et al.
    medRxiv, 2023 Aug 09.
    PMID: 37609153 DOI: 10.1101/2023.08.07.23293767
    BACKGROUND: Early detection of latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) is critical to TB elimination in the current WHO vision of End Tuberculosis Strategy.

    METHODS: We investigated whether detecting plasma cytokines could aid in diagnosing LTBI across household contacts (HHCs) positive for IGRA, HHCs negative for IGRA, and healthy controls. We also measured the plasma cytokines using a commercial Bio-Plex Pro Human Cytokine 17-plex assay.

    RESULTS: Increased plasma CXCL8 and decreased MCP-1, TNF-α, and IFN-γ were associated with LTBI. Regression analysis showed that a combination of CXCL8 and MCP-1 increased the risk of LTBI among HHCs to 14-fold.

    CONCLUSIONS: We postulated that CXCL8 and MCP-1 could be the surrogate biomarkers of LTBI, especially in resource-limited settings.

  5. Tjader NP, Beer AJ, Ramroop J, Tai MC, Ping J, Gandhi T, et al.
    medRxiv, 2023 Dec 06.
    PMID: 38106140 DOI: 10.1101/2023.12.06.23299442
    BACKGROUND: In breast tumors, somatic mutation frequencies in TP53 and PIK3CA vary by tumor subtype and ancestry. HER2 positive and triple negative breast cancers (TNBC) have a higher frequency of TP53 somatic mutations than other subtypes. PIK3CA mutations are more frequently observed in hormone receptor positive tumors. Emerging data suggest tumor mutation status is associated with germline variants and genetic ancestry. We aimed to identify germline variants that are associated with somatic TP53 or PIK3CA mutation status in breast tumors.

    METHODS: A genome-wide association study was conducted using breast cancer mutation status of TP53 and PIK3CA and functional mutation categories including TP53 gain of function (GOF) and loss of function mutations and PIK3CA activating/hotspot mutations. The discovery analysis consisted of 2850 European ancestry women from three datasets. Germline variants showing evidence of association with somatic mutations were selected for validation analyses based on predicted function, allele frequency, and proximity to known cancer genes or risk loci. Candidate variants were assessed for association with mutation status in a multi-ancestry validation study, a Malaysian study, and a study of African American/Black women with TNBC.

    RESULTS: The discovery Germline x Mutation (GxM) association study found five variants associated with one or more TP53 phenotypes with P values <1×10-6, 33 variants associated with one or more TP53 phenotypes with P values <1×10-5, and 44 variants associated with one or more PIK3CA phenotypes with P values <1×10-5. In the multi-ancestry and Malaysian validation studies, germline ESR1 locus variant, rs9383938, was associated with the presence of TP53 mutations overall (P values 6.8×10-5 and 9.8×10-8, respectively) and TP53 GOF mutations (P value 8.4×10-6). Multiple variants showed suggestive evidence of association with PIK3CA mutation status in the validation studies, but none were significant after correction for multiple comparisons.

    CONCLUSIONS: We found evidence that germline variants were associated with TP53 and PIK3CA mutation status in breast cancers. Variants near the estrogen receptor alpha gene, ESR1, were significantly associated with overall TP53 mutations and GOF mutations. Larger multi-ancestry studies are needed to confirm these findings and determine if these variants contribute to ancestry-specific differences in mutation frequency.

  6. Woolley SD, Grigg MJ, Marquart L, Gower J, Piera K, Nair AS, et al.
    medRxiv, 2023 Dec 21.
    PMID: 38196596 DOI: 10.1101/2023.12.19.23300265
    BACKGROUND: The interaction between iron deficiency and malaria is incompletely understood. We evaluated longitudinal changes in iron homeostasis in volunteers enrolled in malaria volunteer infection studies (VIS) and in Malaysian patients with falciparum and vivax malaria.

    METHODS: We retrieved samples and associated data from 55 participants enrolled in malaria VIS, and 171 malaria patients and 30 healthy controls enrolled in clinical studies in Malaysia. Ferritin, hepcidin, erythropoietin, and soluble transferrin receptor (sTfR) were measured by ELISA.

    RESULTS: In the VIS, participants' parasitaemia was correlated with baseline mean corpuscular volume (MCV), but not iron status (ferritin, hepcidin or sTfR). Ferritin, hepcidin and sTfR all increased during the VIS. Ferritin and hepcidin normalised by day 28, while sTfR remained elevated. In VIS participants, baseline iron status (ferritin) was associated with post-treatment increases in liver transaminase levels. In Malaysian malaria patients, hepcidin and ferritin were elevated on admission compared to healthy controls, while sTfR increased following admission. Hepcidin normalised by day 28; however, ferritin and sTfR both remained elevated 4 weeks following admission.

    CONCLUSION: Our findings demonstrate that parasitaemia is associated with an individual's MCV rather than iron status. The persistent elevation in sTfR 4 weeks post-infection in both malaria VIS and clinical malaria may reflect a causal link between malaria and iron deficiency.

  7. Harris EM, Chamseddine S, Chu A, Senkpeil L, Nikiciuk M, Al-Musa A, et al.
    medRxiv, 2024 Mar 07.
    PMID: 38464255 DOI: 10.1101/2024.02.25.24303331
    INTRODUCTION: Autoimmune diseases are heterogeneous and often lack specific or sensitive diagnostic tests. Increased percentages of CD4+CXCR5+PD1+ circulating T follicular helper (cTfh) cells and skewed distributions of cTfh subtypes have been associated with autoimmunity. However, cTfh cell percentages can normalize with immunomodulatory treatment despite persistent disease activity, indicating the need for identifying additional cellular and/or serologic features correlating with autoimmunity.

    METHODS: The cohort included 50 controls and 56 patients with autoimmune cytopenias, gastrointestinal, pulmonary, and/or neurologic autoimmune disease. Flow cytometry was used to measure CD4+CXCR5+ T cell subsets expressing the chemokine receptors CXCR3 and/or CCR6: CXCR3+CCR6- Type 1, CXCR3-CCR6- Type 2, CXCR3+CCR6+ Type 1/17, and CXCR3- CCR6+ Type 17 T cells. IgG and IgA autoantibodies were quantified using a microarray featuring 1616 full-length, conformationally intact protein antigens. The 97.5th percentile in the control cohort defined normal limits for T cell subset percentages and total number (burden) of autoantibodies.

    RESULTS: This study focused on CD4+CXCR5+ T cells because CXCR5 upregulation occurs after cognate T-B cell interactions characteristic of autoimmune diseases. We refer to these cells as circulating T follicular memory (cTfm) cells to acknowledge the dynamic nature of antigen-experienced CXCR5+ T cells, which encompass progenitors of cTfh or Tfh cells as well as early effector memory T cells that have not yet lost CXCR5. Compared to controls, 57.1% of patients had increased CXCR5+CXCR3+CCR6+ cTfm1/17 and 25% had increased CXCR5+CXCR3-CCR6+ cTfm17 cell percentages. Patients had significantly more diverse IgG and IgA autoantibodies than controls and 44.6% had an increased burden of autoantibodies of either isotype. Unsupervised autoantibody clustering identified three clusters of patients with IgG autoantibody profiles distinct from those of controls, enriched for patients with active autoimmunity and monogenic diseases. An increased percentage of cTfm17 cells was most closely associated with an increased burden of high-titer IgG and IgA autoantibodies. A composite measure integrating increased cTfm1/17, cTfm17, and high-titer IgG and/or IgA autoantibodies had 91.1% sensitivity and 90.9% specificity for identifying patients with autoimmunity. Percentages of cTfm1/17 and cTfm17 percentages and numbers of high-titer autoantibodies in patients receiving immunomodulatory treatment did not differ from those in untreated patients, thus suggesting that measurements of cTfm can complement measurements of other cellular markers affected by treatment.

    CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights two new approaches for assessing autoimmunity: measuring CD4+CXCR5+ cTfm subsets as well as total burden of autoantibodies. Our findings suggest that these approaches are particularly relevant to patients with rare autoimmune disorders for whom target antigens and prognosis are often unknown.

  8. Junker J, Lange LM, Vollstedt EJ, Roopnarain K, Doquenia MLM, Annuar AA, et al.
    medRxiv, 2024 Apr 09.
    PMID: 38529492 DOI: 10.1101/2024.03.12.24304154
    Until recently, about three-quarters of all monogenic Parkinson's disease (PD) studies were performed in European/White ancestry, thereby severely limiting our insights into genotype-phenotype relationships at global scale. The first systematic approach to embrace monogenic PD worldwide, The Michael J. Fox Foundation Global Monogenic PD (MJFF GMPD) Project, contacted authors of publications reporting individuals carrying pathogenic variants in known PD-causing genes. In contrast, the Global Parkinson's Genetics Program's (GP2) Monogenic Network took a different approach by targeting PD centers not yet represented in the medical literature. Here, we describe combining both efforts in a "merger project" resulting in a global monogenic PD cohort with build-up of a sustainable infrastructure to identify the multi-ancestry spectrum of monogenic PD and enable studies of factors modifying penetrance and expression of monogenic PD. This effort demonstrates the value of future research based on team science approaches to generate comprehensive and globally relevant results.
  9. Braima KA, Piera KA, Lubis IN, Noviyanti R, Rajahram GS, Kariodimedjo P, et al.
    medRxiv, 2024 Apr 06.
    PMID: 38633782 DOI: 10.1101/2024.04.04.24305339
    BACKGROUND: Zoonotic P. knowlesi and P. cynomolgi symptomatic and asymptomatic infections occur across endemic areas of Southeast Asia. Most infections are low-parasitemia, with an unknown proportion below routine microscopy detection thresholds. Molecular surveillance tools optimizing the limit of detection (LOD) would allow more accurate estimates of zoonotic malaria prevalence.

    METHODS: An established ultra-sensitive Plasmodium genus quantitative-PCR (qPCR) assay targeting the 18S rRNA gene underwent LOD evaluation with and without reverse transcription (RT) for P. knowlesi, P. cynomolgi and P. vivax using total nucleic acid preserved (DNA/RNA Shield™) isolates and archived dried blood spots (DBS). LODs for selected P. knowlesi-specific assays, and reference P. vivax- and P. cynomolgi-specific assays were determined with RT. Assay specificities were assessed using clinical malaria samples and malaria-negative controls.

    RESULTS: The use of reverse transcription improved Plasmodium species detection by up to 10,000-fold (Plasmodium genus), 2759-fold (P. knowlesi), 1000-fold (P. vivax) and 10-fold (P. cynomolgi). The median LOD with RT for the Kamau et al. Plasmodium genus RT-qPCR assay was ≤0.0002 parasites/μL for P. knowlesi and 0.002 parasites/μL for both P. cynomolgi and P. vivax. The LODs with RT for P. knowlesi-specific PCRs were: Imwong et al. 18S rRNA (0.0007 parasites/μL); Divis et al. real-time 18S rRNA (0.0002 parasites/μL); Lubis et al. hemi-nested SICAvar (1.1 parasites/μL) and Lee et al. nested 18S rRNA (11 parasites/μL). The LOD for P. vivax- and P. cynomolgi-specific assays with RT were 0.02 and 0.20 parasites/μL respectively. For DBS P. knowlesi samples the median LOD for the Plasmodium genus qPCR with RT was 0.08, and without RT was 19.89 parasites/uL (249-fold change); no LOD improvement was demonstrated in DBS archived beyond 6 years. The Plasmodium genus and P. knowlesi-assays were 100% specific for Plasmodium species and P. knowlesi detection, respectively, from 190 clinical infections and 48 healthy controls. Reference P. vivax-specific primers demonstrated known cross-reactivity with P. cynomolgi.

    CONCLUSION: Our findings support the use of an 18S rRNA Plasmodium genus qPCR and species-specific nested PCR protocol with RT for highly-sensitive surveillance of zoonotic and human Plasmodium species infections.

  10. Luo W, Liu Z, Ran Y, Li M, Zhou Y, Hou W, et al.
    medRxiv, 2024 Mar 26.
    PMID: 38585938 DOI: 10.1101/2024.03.25.24304825
    The enforcement of COVID-19 interventions by diverse governmental bodies, coupled with the indirect impact of COVID-19 on short-term environmental changes (e.g. plant shutdowns lead to lower greenhouse gas emissions), influences the dengue vector. This provides a unique opportunity to investigate the impact of COVID-19 on dengue transmission and generate insights to guide more targeted prevention measures. We aim to compare dengue transmission patterns and the exposure-response relationship of environmental variables and dengue incidence in the pre- and during-COVID-19 to identify variations and assess the impact of COVID-19 on dengue transmission. We initially visualized the overall trend of dengue transmission from 2012-2022, then conducted two quantitative analyses to compare dengue transmission pre-COVID-19 (2017-2019) and during-COVID-19 (2020-2022). These analyses included time series analysis to assess dengue seasonality, and a Distributed Lag Non-linear Model (DLNM) to quantify the exposure-response relationship between environmental variables and dengue incidence. We observed that all subregions in Thailand exhibited remarkable synchrony with a similar annual trend except 2021. Cyclic and seasonal patterns of dengue remained consistent pre- and during-COVID-19. Monthly dengue incidence in three countries varied significantly. Singapore witnessed a notable surge during-COVID-19, particularly from May to August, with cases multiplying several times compared to pre-COVID-19, while seasonality of Malaysia weakened. Exposure-response relationships of dengue and environmental variables show varying degrees of change, notably in Northern Thailand, where the peak relative risk for the maximum temperature-dengue relationship rose from about 3 to 17, and the max RR of overall cumulative association 0-3 months of relative humidity increased from around 5 to 55. Our study is the first to compare dengue transmission patterns and their relationship with environmental variables before and during COVID-19, showing that COVID-19 has affected dengue transmission at both the national and regional level, and has altered the exposure-response relationship between dengue and the environment.
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