MyMedR

Displaying all 6 publications

Abstract:

Sort:

Prospects and programs for fertility reduction, 1990-2015

Mauldin WP, Ross JA

Stud Fam Plann, 1994 Mar-Apr;25(2):77-95.
PMID: 8059448 DOI: 10.2307/2138086

What is the likelihood that each of the 37 developing countries with populations of 15 million or more in 1990 will reach replacement fertility by the year 2015? These countries have a combined population of 3.9 billion, 91 percent of the population of all developing countries. For this article, a composite index was used as the basis for predicting future levels of total fertility. The index was constructed from socioeconomic variables (life expectancy at birth, infant mortality rates, percent adult literacy, ratio of children enrolled in primary or secondary school, percent of the labor force in nonagricultural occupations, gross national product per capita, and percent of the population living in urban areas), total fertility rates for the years 1985-90, total fertility rate decline from 1960-65 to 1985-90, family planning program effort scores in 1989, and the level of contraceptive prevalence in 1990. Eight countries are classified as certain to reach replacement fertility by 2015, and an additional thirteen probably will also. Five countries are classified as possibly reaching replacement fertility, and eleven as unlikely to do so.

Matched MeSH terms: Birth Rate/trends
Proximate determinants of fertility in peninsular Malaysia

Tey NP, Ng ST, Yew SY

Asia Pac J Public Health, 2012 May;24(3):495-505.
PMID: 21490114 DOI: 10.1177/1010539511401374

The continuing decline in fertility despite a contraction in contraceptive use in Peninsular Malaysia since the mid-1980s has triggered considerable interest in the reasons behind this phenomenon, such as increase in abortion, sterility, and out-of-wedlock pregnancy. Fertility decline has been attributed to rapid socioeconomic development, which can only influence fertility through the intermediate variables. Application of vital statistics, population census, and survey data of Peninsular Malaysia on Bongaarts's model vindicates that marriage postponement and contraceptive use are the 2 most important proximate determinants of fertility, but the effects are not uniform across the ethnic groups. For instance, the predicted total fertility rate for Chinese and Malays are 2.9 and 1.6, respectively, compared with the observed level of 3.0 and 1.9. Postpartum infecundability and abortion also play a part in explaining ethnic fertility differentials. The fertility inhibiting effects of these proximate determinants have significant implications on reproductive health and future population growth.

Matched MeSH terms: Birth Rate/trends
Multilevel models of fertility determination in four Southeast Asian countries: 1970 and 1980

Hirschman C, Guest P

Demography, 1990 Aug;27(3):369-96.
PMID: 2397819

Using microdata from the 1970 and 1980 censuses, we specify and test multilevel models of fertility determination for four Southeast Asian societies--Indonesia, Peninsular Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand. Social context is indexed by provincial characteristics representing women's status, the roles of children, and infant mortality. These contextual variables are hypothesized to have direct and indirect (through individual socioeconomic characteristics) effects on current fertility. The contextual variables account for a modest but significant share of individual variation in fertility and about one-half of the total between area variation in fertility. The women's status contextual variables, particularly modern sector employment, have the largest and most consistent effect on lowered fertility. The results based on the other contextual variables provide mixed support for the initial hypotheses.

Matched MeSH terms: Birth Rate/trends
[Prognostic evaluations of the medical and demographic processes]

Tishuk EA

Probl Sotsialnoi Gig Zdravookhranenniiai Istor Med, 2003 Sep-Oct.
PMID: 14661406

The medical-and-demographic processes as a starting point for the planning of means and resources for the short- and average-term future are forecasted in the paper on the basis of long-term peculiarities of the natural-science data and with respect for the social-and-economic crisis now underway in the country.

Matched MeSH terms: Birth Rate/trends*
Fulltext AVERT2 (a very early rehabilitation trial, a very effective reproductive trigger): retrospective observational analysis of the number of babies born to trial staff

Bernhardt J, Lindley RI, Lalor E, Ellery F, Chamberlain J, Van Holsteyn J, et al.

BMJ, 2015 Dec 11;351:h6432.
PMID: 26658193 DOI: 10.1136/bmj.h6432

OBJECTIVE: To report the number of participants needed to recruit per baby born to trial staff during AVERT, a large international trial on acute stroke, and to describe trial management consequences.
DESIGN: Retrospective observational analysis.
SETTING: 56 acute stroke hospitals in eight countries.
PARTICIPANTS: 1074 trial physiotherapists, nurses, and other clinicians.
OUTCOME MEASURES: Number of babies born during trial recruitment per trial participant recruited.
RESULTS: With 198 site recruitment years and 2104 patients recruited during AVERT, 120 babies were born to trial staff. Births led to an estimated 10% loss in time to achieve recruitment. Parental leave was linked to six trial site closures. The number of participants needed to recruit per baby born was 17.5 (95% confidence interval 14.7 to 21.0); additional trial costs associated with each birth were estimated at 5736 Australian dollars on average.
CONCLUSION: The staff absences registered in AVERT owing to parental leave led to delayed trial recruitment and increased costs, and should be considered by trial investigators when planning research and estimating budgets. However, the celebration of new life became a highlight of the annual AVERT collaborators' meetings and helped maintain a cohesive collaborative group.
TRIAL REGISTRATION: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry no 12606000185561.
DISCLAIMER: Participation in a rehabilitation trial does not guarantee successful reproductive activity.

Matched MeSH terms: Birth Rate/trends*
The birth prevalence, severity, and temporal trends of congenital heart disease in the middle-income country: A population-based study

Mat Bah MN, Sapian MH, Jamil MT, Abdullah N, Alias EY, Zahari N

Congenit Heart Dis, 2018 Nov;13(6):1012-1027.
PMID: 30289622 DOI: 10.1111/chd.12672

OBJECTIVES: There is limited data on congenital heart disease (CHD) from the lower- and middle-income country. We aim to study the epidemiology of CHD with the specific objective to estimate the birth prevalence, severity, and its trend over time.

DESIGN: A population-based study with data retrieved from the Pediatric Cardiology Clinical Information System, a clinical registry of acquired and congenital heart disease for children.

SETTING: State of Johor, Malaysia.

PATIENTS: All children (0-12 years of age) born in the state of Johor between January 2006 and December 2015.

INTERVENTION: None.

OUTCOME MEASURE: The birth prevalence, severity, and temporal trend over time.

RESULTS: There were 531,904 live births during the study period with 3557 new cases of CHD detected. Therefore, the birth prevalence of CHD was 6.7 per 1000 live births (LB) (95% confidence interval [CI]: 6.5-6.9). Of these, 38% were severe, 15% moderate, and 47% mild lesions. Hence, the birth prevalence of mild, moderate, and severe CHD was 3.2 (95% CI: 3.0-3.3), 0.9 (95% CI: 0.9- 1.1), and 2.6 (95% CI: 2.4-2.7) per 1000 LB, respectively. There was a significant increase in the birth prevalence of CHD, from 5.1/1000 LB in 2006 to 7.8/1000 LB in 2015 (P birth prevalence of CHD was 6.7 per 1000 live births, and two in five were severe and significantly associated with syndrome and extracardiac defect. There was a significant increase in the detection of severe lesions in recent years leading to more burden to resources that are already limited in the middle-income country. Therefore, strategic and comprehensive pediatric and congenital heart surgery program is required.

Study site: Hospital Sultanah Aminah (HSAJB), Johor

Matched MeSH terms: Birth Rate/trends*