Predictive model of recurrent ischemic stroke: model development from real-world data

BACKGROUND: There are established correlations between risk factors and ischemic stroke (IS) recurrence; however, does the hazard of recurrent IS change over time? What is the predicted baseline hazard of recurrent IS if there is no influence of variable predictors? This study aimed to quantify the hazard of recurrent IS when the variable predictors were set to zero and quantify the secondary prevention influence on the hazard of recurrent ischemic stroke.

METHODS: In the population cohort involved in this study, data were extracted from 7,697 patients with a history of first IS attack registered with the National Neurology Registry of Malaysia from 2009 to 2016. A time-to-recurrent IS model was developed using NONMEM version 7.5. Three baseline hazard models were fitted into the data. The best model was selected using maximum likelihood estimation, clinical plausibility, and visual predictive checks.

RESULTS: Within the maximum 7.37 years of follow-up, 333 (4.32%) patients had at least one incident of recurrent IS. The data were well described by the Gompertz hazard model. Within the first 6 months after the index IS, the hazard of recurrent IS was predicted to be 0.238, and 6 months after the index attack, it reduced to 0.001. The presence of typical risk factors such as hyperlipidemia [HR, 2.22 (95%CI: 1.81-2.72)], hypertension [HR, 2.03 (95%CI: 1.52-2.71)], and ischemic heart disease [HR, 2.10 (95%CI: 1.64-2.69)] accelerated the hazard of recurrent IS, but receiving antiplatelets (APLTs) upon stroke decreased this hazard [HR, 0.59 (95%CI: 0.79-0.44)].

CONCLUSION: The hazard of recurrent IS magnitude differs during different time intervals based on the concomitant risk factors and secondary prevention.