BACKGROUND AND AIMS: There is a lack of population-based studies focusing on guideline-based prognostic models for stroke. This study aimed to develop and validate a prognostic model that predicts mortality following a first-ever acute ischemic stroke.
METHODS: The study included 899 adult patients ( ≥ 18 years) with confirmed diagnosis of first-ever acute ischemic stroke enrolled in the Malaysian National Stroke Registry (NSR) from January 2009 to December 2019. The primary outcome was mortality within 90 days post-stroke (266 events [29.6%]). The prognostic model was developed using logistic regression (75%, n = 674) and internally validated (25%, n = 225). Model performance was assessed using discrimination (area under the curve (AUC]) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test [HL]).
RESULTS: The final model includes factors associated with increased risk of mortality, such as age (adjusted odds ratio, aOR 1.06 [95% confidence interval, CI 1.03, 1.10; p
* Title and MeSH Headings from MEDLINE®/PubMed®, a database of the U.S. National Library of Medicine.