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Risk Factors Associated with Mortality Among Patients with Novel Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) in Africa

Mohammed M 1 , Muhammad S 2 , Mohammed FZ 3 , Mustapha S 4 , Sha'aban A 5 , Sani NY 6 Show all authors , Ahmad MH 7 , Bala AA 8 , Ungogo MA 9 , Alotaibi NM 10 , Zainal H 5

Affiliations 

  • 1 School of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, Penang, Pulau Pinang, Malaysia. macreener88@gmail.com
  • 2 Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, Kaduna, Nigeria
  • 3 School of Dental Health Sciences, Shehu Idris College of Health Sciences and Technology, Makarfi, Kaduna, Nigeria
  • 4 School of Medical Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, Kubang Kerian, Kelantan, Malaysia
  • 5 School of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, Penang, Pulau Pinang, Malaysia
  • 6 Center for Drug Research, Universiti Sains Malaysia, Penang, Pulau Pinang, Malaysia
  • 7 Department of Pharmacology and Therapeutics, Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, Kaduna, Nigeria
  • 8 Department of Pharmacology, College of Medicine and Health Sciences, Federal University Dutse, Jigawa, Nigeria
  • 9 Department of Veterinary Pharmacology and Toxicology, Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, Nigeria
  • 10 College of Pharmacy, Northern Border University, Rafha, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
J Racial Ethn Health Disparities, 2021 10;8(5):1267-1272.
PMID: 33051749 DOI: 10.1007/s40615-020-00888-3

Abstract

BACKGROUND: The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was first reported in China and later spread rapidly to other parts of the world, including Africa. Africa was projected to be devastated by COVID-19. There is currently limited data regarding regional predictors of mortality among patients with COVID-19. This study aimed to evaluate the independent risk factors associated with mortality among patients with COVID-19 in Africa.

METHODS: A total of 1028 confirmed cases of COVID-19 from Africa with definite survival outcomes were identified retrospectively from an open-access individual-level worldwide COVID-19 database. The live version of the dataset is available at https://github.com/beoutbreakprepared/nCoV2019 . Multivariable logistic regression was conducted to determine the risk factors that independently predict mortality among patients with COVID-19 in Africa.

RESULTS: Of the 1028 cases included in study, 432 (42.0%) were females with a median (interquartile range, IQR) age of 50 (24) years. Older age (adjusted odds ratio {aOR} 1.06; [95% confidence intervals {95% CI}, 1.04-1.08]), presence of chronic disease (aOR 9.63; [95% CI, 3.84-24.15]), travel history (aOR 2.44; [95% CI, 1.26-4.72]), as well as locations of Central Africa (aOR 0.14; [95% CI, 0.03-0.72]) and West Africa (aOR 0.12; [95% CI, 0.04-0.32]) were identified as the independent risk factors significantly associated with increased mortality among the patients with COVID-19.

CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic is evolving gradually in Africa. Among patients with COVID-19 in Africa, older age, presence of chronic disease, travel history, and the locations of Central Africa and West Africa were associated with increased mortality. A regional response should prioritize strategies that will protect these populations. Also, conducting a further in-depth study could provide more insights into additional factors predictive of mortality in COVID-19 patients.

* Title and MeSH Headings from MEDLINE®/PubMed®, a database of the U.S. National Library of Medicine.

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