U.S. plastic waste exports: A state-by-state analysis pre- and post-China import ban

This study analyzes the regional implications of China's 2017 import ban on plastic waste by examining U.S. census data. A statistically significant decrease in total U.S. plastic waste exports was found, dropping from about 1.4 million tons to 0.6 million tons in the post-ban period. California remained the top exporter, throughout both pre- and post-ban periods, while South Carolina exhibited the highest per capita exports. Malaysia emerged as the largest importer of U.S. plastic waste, followed by Vietnam, Indonesia, and Thailand. The ban also led to a change in the composition of the exported plastic waste. Ethylene polymers increased from 32.6% of total exports in the pre-ban period to 46.9% in the post-ban period. Other plastics (vinyl chloride polymers, styrene polymers, and for plastics not elsewhere specified or included) decreased from 67.4% of total exports in the pre-ban period to 53.1% in the post-ban period. Moreover, we found that exporting plastic waste has significant environmental and human health impacts. For example, the Global Warming Potential (GWP) decreased from 20 million tons CO2-eq in the scenario where 100% of plastics are exported, or 25 million tons exported from the U.S. since 2002, to -11.1 million tons CO2-eq in the scenario where 100% of plastics are treated domestically. Transportation exacerbates these impacts for exported waste scenarios, increasing to 5.4 million tons CO2-eq when plastics are exported by ship while decreasing to 0.9 million tons CO2-eq for domestic treatment. Although exporting plastic waste is initially cost-effective, our study highlights that investing in domestic waste management can yield significant long-term benefits, considering the environmental and public health impacts. Therefore, it is crucial to prioritize context-specific solutions to address the challenges of the evolving global plastic waste landscape.