Short and long-run causal effects of agriculture, forestry, and other land use on greenhouse gas emissions: evidence from China using VECM approach

Climate change caused by different anthropogenic activities is a subject of attention globally. There is a concern on how to maintain a clean environment and at the same time achieve optimal use of land. To this end, this study examines the causal effects of land use including agricultural, forestry, and other land categories on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The data for China is collected over the period 1990 to 2012 for the empirical examination. By employing vector error correction model (VECM), it is found that there is significant long-run causality among variables. However, in the short run expectedly, only land under agriculture has strong causality with the GHG emissions. The results in case of variance decomposition analysis highlight that land under agriculture and other use significantly causes the GHG emissions in the long run. Further, impulse responses of variables are also measured with the Cholesky one standard deviation. The results are robust and support the argument that different land uses cause GHG emissions in China. The study provides insights for policy makers to improve the activities occurring on agricultural and other land uses. Assessment of overall potential, including bio energy, needs to include analysis of trade-offs and feedbacks with land-use competition. Many positive linkages with sustainable development and with adaptation exist but are case and site specific as they depend on scale, scope, and pace of implementation.